FBallFan123
Active Member
I was having a discussion at work the other day about how baseball has transitioned over the years and thought I’d ask y’all as well: Will there be another 3000 hit member? We said it will be really hard and thought Trout might be the best bet now. Even he has a lot of work to do and will probably need to play 12-14 more years.
There aren’t many players in their 30’s with a good chance at 3,000 ... Cabrera (36, 2749 hits) and Robinson Cano (36, 2515 hits) both seem likely.
Perhaps no other player currently in the 30-40 year old range makes it.
But there's some guys in the 20-30 year old group with a chance to reach it.
Primarily, I think you have to look at the players drafted out of HS or signed internationally...because a lot of them are making their debuts at earlier ages like 19 or 20 which gives them a huge head start on accumulated stats compared to college draftees who may not debut until 22 or 23, or later.
Trout was drafted out of HS and debuted at 19 years old.
He's at 1,266 right now, so he could get around 1,500 by the end of next season (his 10th as a pro) going into just his age 29 season.
That gives him a lot of time to get to 3,000....and he just signed a super-long contract that could give him the time to do it.
Two players in similar positions who have a chance...drafted out of HS, debuted at young ages and recently came off their rookie contracts - or were about to - and signed long-term deals: Manny Machado (26, 1130 hits) and Nolan Arenado (28, 1072 hits).
Arenado is behind the pace of Machado or Trout....but playing at Coors into his mid-30's certainly could really help his chances.
Bryce Harper (26. 994) is in a similar career situation but he has almost twice as many walks as those two (635 walks, compared to 328 for Machado and 317 for Arenado) so while he has a higher OBP he may just not get enough hits to get there.
Xander Bogaerts one to keep an eye on....26 years old, 920 hits.
You can't really predict how players younger than that will do...but of the names to check back in on in a few years, maybe some of the internationally signed players that all debuted at 19-20oung like Fernando Tatis Jr., Vlad Guerrero Jr., Juan Soto, Victor Robles.
Vlad Jr. is at the opposite end of the career spectrum as Miggy, but Cabrera was the player he was most often compared to as a prospect. He had an insane 80 hit grade as a prospect and he mowed through the minor leagues, so if you were betting, you might put some money on him doing it.