2019 MLB Thread

[FBallFan123]

I was having a discussion at work the other day about how baseball has transitioned over the years and thought I’d ask y’all as well: Will there be another 3000 hit member? We said it will be really hard and thought Trout might be the best bet now. Even he has a lot of work to do and will probably need to play 12-14 more years.

There aren’t many players in their 30’s with a good chance at 3,000 ... Cabrera (36, 2749 hits) and Robinson Cano (36, 2515 hits) both seem likely.

Perhaps no other player currently in the 30-40 year old range makes it.

But there's some guys in the 20-30 year old group with a chance to reach it.

Primarily, I think you have to look at the players drafted out of HS or signed internationally...because a lot of them are making their debuts at earlier ages like 19 or 20 which gives them a huge head start on accumulated stats compared to college draftees who may not debut until 22 or 23, or later.

Trout was drafted out of HS and debuted at 19 years old.

He's at 1,266 right now, so he could get around 1,500 by the end of next season (his 10th as a pro) going into just his age 29 season.

That gives him a lot of time to get to 3,000....and he just signed a super-long contract that could give him the time to do it.

Two players in similar positions who have a chance...drafted out of HS, debuted at young ages and recently came off their rookie contracts - or were about to - and signed long-term deals: Manny Machado (26, 1130 hits) and Nolan Arenado (28, 1072 hits).

Arenado is behind the pace of Machado or Trout....but playing at Coors into his mid-30's certainly could really help his chances.

Bryce Harper (26. 994) is in a similar career situation but he has almost twice as many walks as those two (635 walks, compared to 328 for Machado and 317 for Arenado) so while he has a higher OBP he may just not get enough hits to get there.

Xander Bogaerts one to keep an eye on....26 years old, 920 hits.

You can't really predict how players younger than that will do...but of the names to check back in on in a few years, maybe some of the internationally signed players that all debuted at 19-20oung like Fernando Tatis Jr., Vlad Guerrero Jr., Juan Soto, Victor Robles.

Vlad Jr. is at the opposite end of the career spectrum as Miggy, but Cabrera was the player he was most often compared to as a prospect. He had an insane 80 hit grade as a prospect and he mowed through the minor leagues, so if you were betting, you might put some money on him doing it.

 

[FBallFan123]

Very cool to see Cron, Crichton and now Young all getting time with the Dbacks this season.

 

[FBallFan123]

The real question is will there ever be another pitcher that wins 300 games with the way bullpens are being used now?

Hard to see it happening.

Sabathia is the highest active at 251, but his body at 38 won't let him get close to it.

Next is Verlander at 214.... he's only two years younger than CC, but he's much better shape. He's at 10 wins this season, so he could get to 220 career wins by end of the season.

Signed for two more years after this...if he can maintain this level, he could get to 240+ by the end of that contract.

I’d give him the best chance of any active pitcher, but he’d have to pitch into his 40's to reach 300.

 

[FBallFan123]

 

[BankerFrog]

There aren’t many players in their 30’s with a good chance at 3,000 ... Cabrera (36, 2749 hits) and Robinson Cano (36, 2515 hits) both seem likely.

Perhaps no other player currently in the 30-40 year old range makes it.

But there's some guys in the 20-30 year old group with a chance to reach it.

Primarily, I think you have to look at the players drafted out of HS or signed internationally...because a lot of them are making their debuts at earlier ages like 19 or 20 which gives them a huge head start on accumulated stats compared to college draftees who may not debut until 22 or 23, or later.

Trout was drafted out of HS and debuted at 19 years old.

He's at 1,266 right now, so he could get around 1,500 by the end of next season (his 10th as a pro) going into just his age 29 season.

That gives him a lot of time to get to 3,000....and he just signed a super-long contract that could give him the time to do it.

Two players in similar positions who have a chance...drafted out of HS, debuted at young ages and recently came off their rookie contracts - or were about to - and signed long-term deals: Manny Machado (26, 1130 hits) and Nolan Arenado (28, 1072 hits).

Arenado is behind the pace of Machado or Trout....but playing at Coors into his mid-30's certainly could really help his chances.

Bryce Harper (26. 994) is in a similar career situation but he has almost twice as many walks as those two (635 walks, compared to 328 for Machado and 317 for Arenado) so while he has a higher OBP he may just not get enough hits to get there.

Xander Bogaerts one to keep an eye on....26 years old, 920 hits.

You can't really predict how players younger than that will do...but of the names to check back in on in a few years, maybe some of the internationally signed players that all debuted at 19-20oung like Fernando Tatis Jr., Vlad Guerrero Jr., Juan Soto, Victor Robles.

Vlad Jr. is at the opposite end of the career spectrum as Miggy, but Cabrera was the player he was most often compared to as a prospect. He had an insane 80 hit grade as a prospect and he mowed through the minor leagues, so if you were betting, you might put some money on him doing it.

No Altuve? He's at 1,462 and just turned 29 last month. He's also led the league in BA numerous times, I think he's got a shot

 

[Eight]

No Altuve? He's at 1,462 and just turned 29 last month. He's also led the league in BA numerous times, I think he's got a shot

i mentioned altuve above in a reply and i think the biggest challenge for him is health. he is finally running well again for the first time in over a year, but am concerned about the potential for chronic problems in that knee.

 

[MAcFroggy]

Elvis Andrus has 1645 hits during his age 30 season. He has quitely put together a ton of hits. If he stays healthy, he should pass 2,500, however, getting to 3,000 will be another story.

Edit: Elvis has also been very healthy during his career. Last year was really the only season he has missed substantial time. During his first 9 years he averaged 153 games per year.

 

[BankerFrog]

i mentioned altuve above in a reply and i think the biggest challenge for him is health. he is finally running well again for the first time in over a year, but am concerned about the potential for chronic problems in that knee.

Ah my bad didn't see that. Totally agreed about health though... he's had a few too many instances recently

 

[jake102]

I mean 3,000 hits is fun, and certainly proves value, but it shouldn't be viewed as importantly as it once was. Less singles, more homeruns is more valuable.

 

[BankerFrog]

I mean 3,000 hits is fun, and certainly proves value, but it shouldn't be viewed as importantly as it once was. Less singles, more homeruns is more valuable.

Fact. Rookie Yordan Alvarez, if he plays 10 full seasons, is on pace to hit 873 HRs. So that's pretty cool

 

[Eight]

I mean 3,000 hits is fun, and certainly proves value, but it shouldn't be viewed as importantly as it once was. Less singles, more homeruns is more valuable.

if you get close to 3,000 hits in your career you had to be raking for good portion of your career which is valuable regardless of it being singles or homeruns.

ichiro had 10 straight seasons of 200+ hits and 13 straight years of 175+ hits. 13 straight seasons of averaging being on base at least once a game. he rarely struck out or gounded into double plays and would work counts deep burning pitches.

he also just hit 118 home runs in a 19 year career, but i would take him in a heartbeat near the top of a lineup.

 

[jake102]

if you get close to 3,000 hits in your career you had to be raking for good portion of your career which is valuable regardless of it being singles or homeruns.

ichiro had 10 straight seasons of 200+ hits and 13 straight years of 175+ hits. 13 straight seasons of averaging being on base at least once a game. he rarely struck out or gounded into double plays and would work counts deep burning pitches.

he also just hit 118 home runs in a 19 year career, but i would take him in a heartbeat near the top of a lineup.

Yeh for sure. Just saying that a guy who hits 3,000 hits, 250 of them being HRs probably has similar value as someone who hits 2,000 hits and has 600 HRs

 

[FBallFan123]

I mean 3,000 hits is fun, and certainly proves value, but it shouldn't be viewed as importantly as it once was. Less singles, more homeruns is more valuable.

It's true "hits" aren't viewed the way they once were, but I don't think 3,000 hits is viewed much differently than it used to be in terms of Hall of Fame voting.

I think 3,000 hits = Hall of Fame … aside from the betting on baseball/PED group of players like Rose, A-Rod, Palmeiro….and likely Cano.

I assume the same thing with 500 HR's .... Bonds, McGwire, Palmeiro, Sheffield, Sosa, Ramirez haven't gotten in....although we'll see if that changes, Bonds may end up getting in and there seems to be much less made of David Ortiz's PED history than his predecessors...likability seems to be a big factor here, plus his place in Boston World Series history.

 

[FBallFan123]

i mentioned altuve above in a reply and i think the biggest challenge for him is health. he is finally running well again for the first time in over a year, but am concerned about the potential for chronic problems in that knee.

Yeah, Altuve's recent injuries are becoming concerning.

Couple of years ago, during his stretch of 4-straight seasons of 200+ hits, he looked well on his way.

Now it's a question mark.

 

[Ron Swanson]

That was a sarcastic post. The three records that I don’t think will ever be touched is wins, doubles, and strike outs

There’s some pretty ridiculous records for inside the park homeruns, number of times stealing home, and triples as well.

Number of complete games is the most ridiculous one though. If I remember correctly, Cy Young had like 600+ CGs in his career.

 

[jake102]

There’s some pretty ridiculous records for inside the park homeruns, number of times stealing home, and triples as well.

Number of complete games is the most ridiculous one though. If I remember correctly, Cy Young had like 600+ CGs in his career.

Unpopular opinion - Cy Young's (and others who played in the 1800s and early 1900s) records are more or less meaningless.

 

[BrewingFrog]

Unpopular opinion - Cy Young's (and others who played in the 1800s and early 1900s) records are more or less meaningless.

No, simply that it was a different game then. Present day baseball is consumed with physically demanding pitches to throw, and thus pitch counts, and a bullpen of relievers to go to if the Manager gets antsy.

Additionally, there are pitchers in the Japanese League who throw far and away more innings than their MLB counterparts. Theirs is a different game, with more emphasis on accuracy and speed differential.

 

[Ron Swanson]

Unpopular opinion - Cy Young's (and others who played in the 1800s and early 1900s) records are more or less meaningless.

They’re incomparable to the stats in today’s game, and I don’t think many would disagree. Just kinda fun to look at. Of course no one is going to judge today’s pitchers against Cy Young's statistics.

I wouldn’t use the word “meaningless” though, personally.

 

[jake102]

Yeh agree with both of y'all. I meant "meaningless when compared to modern day baseball"

 

[The Artist Formerly Known as PhormerPhrog]

MASSIVE “if”.

#fatjoke