If Big 12 can't (by making the rounds and giving a try) and convince other power conference teams to move to Big 12 like AZ/ASU or Colorado, even Notre Dame, or...Then, when I look at expansion I think about the future of how people will consume their sports.
I think people consume nationally now with streaming. Because of that Big 12 needs national names that will draw attention to the Big 12 and BYU is a true national program. People know what the "Y" is and means. If some of these streaming packages you will be paying for is bundled with other Big 12 games you want that large fanbase, that huge mormon following to buy those packages. UT vs. BYU, OU vs. BYU, old rivals TCU vs. BYU is something people will definitely buy or tune into. BYU fan base also travel very well, so full stadiums when they play your team. Looks good on TV and brings forth excitement to watch.
I also think of potential to become a huge fan base (for attendance and streaming interest) and other opportunities like recruiting areas and good markets. Which is why I think UCF would be great catch. I really like UCF. They already have a good following (see below attendance in G5) and they have the potential to have an SEC type fanbase in which once they are in a power conference they will become crazy fans like those southeast fans. Yes they will have to mature in the conference but they have the recruiting area to do so. They grew up on that SEC craze following just as TCU has strong followers who grew up on the SWC maybe started as UT/A&M fans but now the strongest TCU supporters. UCF has the potential as a huge huge public university to be like on of the large flagship Florida universities. They definitely can be as big as Miami. Location is huge with Orlando being a tourist area (home of Disney World) and a top TV market (people like watching the tube). They have a medical school and are a well respected research university.
UCF attendance has been pretty good over the years. University of Texas doesn't mind playing them in their stadium (UT went to Orlando in 2007 and almost lost, score was 35-32, and that was a 10-3 UT team, attendance almost 50,000 for that game) which is huge in the decision (would OU/UT feel ok to play in their stadium and location? Most programs have upgraded stadiums but location is not where OU/UT fans want to go - they want to go to Orlando).
[SIZE=9pt]Season[/SIZE]
[SIZE=9pt]Average Attendance[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]30,065[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]37,978[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]42,084[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]34,608[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]34,283[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]39,376[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]38,078[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]39,596[/SIZE]
[SIZE=8.5pt]44,018[/SIZE]
I like Memphis with its FedEx relationship. Big 12 needs partners which I think is a big positive for that program.
Houston is attractive in most everything, but has some conflicts being another team in Texas and would hurt Houston recruiting for some of the current Big 12 members.
Colorado State is interesting. Worried about interest in that location. But I think they would be a good get.
UConn is far but they are in ESPN territory which gives more exposure...maybe...I would pass on them.
Something is wrong with Cincinnati. I just don't get a good feeling about the potential...fan interest or future fan interest. Which hurts when talks about streaming. Do UT and OU want to go up there? I think they have the least potential out of the bunch.
Boise State has history but it is far. Academically bad. Does UT/OU want to go up there. However what they have is that national brand now that BYU has that is great for matchups and streaming options. They do have a crazy super fanbase. Location and amount of people in that location isn't attractive.
Northern Illinois is an option. I like them better than Cinci. I think they have more potential than Cinci. They have new facilities coming. Close to 300 miles away from Ames, that would be the natural rival for the Huskies. More than that, it gets the interest of Chicago.
NIU is part of the #3 ranked Chicago, Illinois DMA, which consists of 3,475,220 TV Homes. An air-wave broadcast from Chicago reaches over 10 million people. More than 300,000 alumni in Chicago.
My first expansion go around and my mind can change:
If expand by two I would go with BYU and UCF
If expand by four I would go with BYU, CSU, Memphis, UCF (but I'm not out of the thinking BYU, Northern Illinois, Memphis/Cinci, and maybe one of Houston/UCF/CSU/Cinci/Memphis - mind will change as we go possibly)
And nothing is perfect because really if Big 12 could they wouldn't expand until they could attract other P5 schools to join when the conference has had years to grow a good reputation and talks of good TV deals. But that is now changed.
