CBS Sports: Realignment Fallout, What's Next

[Gary's Shirtless Revenge]

Drew D. at the FWST with the current thinking of TCU at the moment, which aligns generally with what I've heard: https://www.star-telegram.com/sports/college/big-12/texas-christian-university/article253045508.html

Overall, the possibilities being theorized:

1. PAC 12 + Big 8 Merger

- Would probably work more like a scheduling partnership, may compete independently at the end of the day
- Biggest Benefit: Would put the combined 20 members in their best negotiating position
- Biggest Risk: Would be highly complicated, look weak, and would be very hard to put together given the egos on both sides

GSR's Likelihood Indicator: Unlikely

2. PAC 12 Goes to 16 (Some version of TxTech, OkState, TCU, and one of the rest)

- Would probably give the PAC the most traditional structure and slight improvement to the TV package
- Biggest Benefit: Nice 8-8 model, everybody makes OK money, the Mtn-Central division will have a clear shot to a Conference Championship most years
- Biggest Risk: Can the Pac 12 make the same money per-member at 12 that it can with this 16 group? Probably, or very close... So what's it worth to the core-12 to be more "stable" at the same $$ otherwise?

GSR's Likelihood Indicator: Possible, but doesn't seem likely yet

3. Big 12 Raid of the PAC to Get To 12-16

- Flip the script, help Pac schools that want to be more athletics-first get to greener pasture
- Biggest Benefit: Puts the core-8 Big 12 members in the driver seat, clear vision of football first
- Biggest Risk: If the Pac is open for raiding, it's going to get raided by the BIG too... Meaning the Big 12 only gets scraps

GSR's Likelihood Indicator: Least likely

Drew throws cold water on TCU to the ACC and SEC, this is accurate. BIG is theoretically possible, but highly unlikely for a number of reasons. I understand TCU is not spending their time on this.

The one thing I disagree with him on is could the Big 8 go and add 4-8 teams from the AAC... This is absolutely on the table IF neither WVU or KU get picked off. The remaining Big 8 are more valuable as a group than the existing AAC in whole (imagine that) on a per-member basis, and going and getting a few of their best plus maybe BYO or Boise in football only would be curious... Again, this isn't the #1 option, but if the Big 8 have no other path, they need to double down and make their own best-case in the Big 12.

To reiterate what I've said before: The BIG is the big player we need to hear from, they hold a bunch of cards. ACC too, though I have an idea what they are working on and will write that out when I have the time.

Once we have the BIG, SEC, and ACC's final intentions stated, then the rest of the pieces start to move.

 

[Palliative Care]

I think that all this conference shake up talk will soon hit a wall of resistance from fans and schools. It is one thing to speculate about dram conferences of size and weight but it is an entirely different thing to face the reality of what this can do to your favorite school. I think school administrative folks will pull in the reins next and the process will slow considerably. Also the Texas government will have its say like it or not. They may not prevent Texas from leaving the B12 but there will be some real push back anyway. Finally the real season will be upon us and this will also lead to a slowing of interest. All this will be a good thing in my opinion. Super conferences all have huge issues to over come and unity within them will be hard to find and maintain. Imagine what happens in the SEC the first time Texas gets its nose tweaked. Horns Down is not just a sign, it is a statement.

 

[jake102]

Drew D. at the FWST with the current thinking of TCU at the moment, which aligns generally with what I've heard: https://www.star-telegram.com/sports/college/big-12/texas-christian-university/article253045508.html

Overall, the possibilities being theorized:

1. PAC 12 + Big 8 Merger

- Would probably work more like a scheduling partnership, may compete independently at the end of the day
- Biggest Benefit: Would put the combined 20 members in their best negotiating position
- Biggest Risk: Would be highly complicated, look weak, and would be very hard to put together given the egos on both sides

GSR's Likelihood Indicator: Unlikely

2. PAC 12 Goes to 16 (Some version of TxTech, OkState, TCU, and one of the rest)

- Would probably give the PAC the most traditional structure and slight improvement to the TV package
- Biggest Benefit: Nice 8-8 model, everybody makes OK money, the Mtn-Central division will have a clear shot to a Conference Championship most years
- Biggest Risk: Can the Pac 12 make the same money per-member at 12 that it can with this 16 group? Probably, or very close... So what's it worth to the core-12 to be more "stable" at the same $$ otherwise?

GSR's Likelihood Indicator: Possible, but doesn't seem likely yet

3. Big 12 Raid of the PAC to Get To 12-16

- Flip the script, help Pac schools that want to be more athletics-first get to greener pasture
- Biggest Benefit: Puts the core-8 Big 12 members in the driver seat, clear vision of football first
- Biggest Risk: If the Pac is open for raiding, it's going to get raided by the BIG too... Meaning the Big 12 only gets scraps

GSR's Likelihood Indicator: Least likely

Drew throws cold water on TCU to the ACC and SEC, this is accurate. BIG is theoretically possible, but highly unlikely for a number of reasons. I understand TCU is not spending their time on this.

The one thing I disagree with him on is could the Big 8 go and add 4-8 teams from the AAC... This is absolutely on the table IF neither WVU or KU get picked off. The remaining Big 8 are more valuable as a group than the existing AAC in whole (imagine that) on a per-member basis, and going and getting a few of their best plus maybe BYO or Boise in football only would be curious... Again, this isn't the #1 option, but if the Big 8 have no other path, they need to double down and make their own best-case in the Big 12.

To reiterate what I've said before: The BIG is the big player we need to hear from, they hold a bunch of cards. ACC too, though I have an idea what they are working on and will write that out when I have the time.

Once we have the BIG, SEC, and ACC's final intentions stated, then the rest of the pieces start to move.

So do you think #2 (PAC12 adding four) is most likely at this point? More likely than your scenario of remaining Big8 adding couple AAC members?

 

[Longhorn from Aledo]

Drew D. at the FWST with the current thinking of TCU at the moment, which aligns generally with what I've heard: https://www.star-telegram.com/sports/college/big-12/texas-christian-university/article253045508.html

Overall, the possibilities being theorized:

1. PAC 12 + Big 8 Merger

- Would probably work more like a scheduling partnership, may compete independently at the end of the day
- Biggest Benefit: Would put the combined 20 members in their best negotiating position
- Biggest Risk: Would be highly complicated, look weak, and would be very hard to put together given the egos on both sides

GSR's Likelihood Indicator: Unlikely

2. PAC 12 Goes to 16 (Some version of TxTech, OkState, TCU, and one of the rest)

- Would probably give the PAC the most traditional structure and slight improvement to the TV package
- Biggest Benefit: Nice 8-8 model, everybody makes OK money, the Mtn-Central division will have a clear shot to a Conference Championship most years
- Biggest Risk: Can the Pac 12 make the same money per-member at 12 that it can with this 16 group? Probably, or very close... So what's it worth to the core-12 to be more "stable" at the same $$ otherwise?

GSR's Likelihood Indicator: Possible, but doesn't seem likely yet

3. Big 12 Raid of the PAC to Get To 12-16

- Flip the script, help Pac schools that want to be more athletics-first get to greener pasture
- Biggest Benefit: Puts the core-8 Big 12 members in the driver seat, clear vision of football first
- Biggest Risk: If the Pac is open for raiding, it's going to get raided by the BIG too... Meaning the Big 12 only gets scraps

GSR's Likelihood Indicator: Least likely

Drew throws cold water on TCU to the ACC and SEC, this is accurate. BIG is theoretically possible, but highly unlikely for a number of reasons. I understand TCU is not spending their time on this.

The one thing I disagree with him on is could the Big 8 go and add 4-8 teams from the AAC... This is absolutely on the table IF neither WVU or KU get picked off. The remaining Big 8 are more valuable as a group than the existing AAC in whole (imagine that) on a per-member basis, and going and getting a few of their best plus maybe BYO or Boise in football only would be curious... Again, this isn't the #1 option, but if the Big 8 have no other path, they need to double down and make their own best-case in the Big 12.

To reiterate what I've said before: The BIG is the big player we need to hear from, they hold a bunch of cards. ACC too, though I have an idea what they are working on and will write that out when I have the time.

Once we have the BIG, SEC, and ACC's final intentions stated, then the rest of the pieces start to move.

It will be the last option. The late 8 and the AAC will merge in 2022. It will have a seat at the CFP and will have a strong strength of schedule. It will surpass the Pac, Big 10 West, and most of the ACC in Big 3 sports in terms of quality. The CFP with 12 teams will determine which conferences are better. The drop in revenue will be a difficult pill. The late 8 are going to have to drop some sports with high travel costs. Keep men's football, bball, and baseball. With NIL, TCU needs to leverage the businesses in FTW to keep the current talent level. The Big 10 thinks it will be poaching from late 8 teams.

The big question for TCU.... will GP stay on? I think he will. I also know for a fact that Sonny Dykes at SMU would love to coach at TCU. Spike used to say that Fort Worth was the best place in Texas to live and I know Sonny believes that as well.

 

[Eight]

I think that all this conference shake up talk will soon hit a wall of resistance from fans and schools. It is one thing to speculate about dram conferences of size and weight but it is an entirely different thing to face the reality of what this can do to your favorite school. I think school administrative folks will pull in the reins next and the process will slow considerably. Also the Texas government will have its say like it or not. They may not prevent Texas from leaving the B12 but there will be some real push back anyway. Finally the real season will be upon us and this will also lead to a slowing of interest. All this will be a good thing in my opinion. Super conferences all have huge issues to over come and unity within them will be hard to find and maintain. Imagine what happens in the SEC the first time Texas gets its nose tweaked. Horns Down is not just a sign, it is a statement.

how does the texas state government have a say in this? the texas athletic department at this time generates enough revenue on its own to not only NOT take funding from the university, but actually contributes funding back to the school

this might be one of the few schools that operate in this situation around the country, but the state of texas only has a say in a few schools.

as far as their reaction when they don't get their way, scheiss texas, you would think they would learn from how the conference was willing to go behind the back of the ags, but they don't because that won't happen to them. thing is that is the same reaction we see from recruits who sign with schools who have a stacked roster, a history of recruiting over kids, and for running kids out of their programs, yet, they continually get their pick of the recruits because that is where the very best play and they are one of the very best.

 

[Eight]

It will be the last option. The late 8 and the AAC will merge in 2022. It will have a seat at the CFP and will have a strong strength of schedule. It will surpass the Pac, Big 10 West, and most of the ACC in Big 3 sports in terms of quality. The CFP with 12 teams will determine which conferences are better. The drop in revenue will be a difficult pill. The late 8 are going to have to drop some sports with high travel costs. Keep men's football, bball, and baseball. With NIL, TCU needs to leverage the businesses in FTW to keep the current talent level. The Big 10 thinks it will be poaching from late 8 teams.

so revenues will fall, but somehow the conference will be better than the pac, be a strong schedule and be part of the cfp?

 

[Longhorn from Aledo]

how does the texas state government have a say in this? the texas athletic department at this time generates enough revenue on its own to not only NOT take funding from the university, but actually contributes funding back to the school

this might be one of the few schools that operate in this situation around the country, but the state of texas only has a say in a few schools.

as far as their reaction when they don't get their way, scheiss texas, you would think they would learn from how the conference was willing to go behind the back of the ags, but they don't because that won't happen to them. thing is that is the same reaction we see from recruits who sign with schools who have a stacked roster, a history of recruiting over kids, and for running kids out of their programs, yet, they continually get their pick of the recruits because that is where the very best play and they are one of the very best.

Texas has its reasons for leaving. It's money and more of it. TCU would do the same. The days of Texas being everyone's bogeyman are ending. Find someone else to hate.

 

[BrewingFrog]

I tend to agree with the PAC expanding with 4 rump BIGXII teams: Take the remaining cream while you still can. Be proactive. There's no downside to the PAC making such a move. After all, their Conference structure is still intact, and though they may be squabbling over some matters, their simple physical location makes them undesirable for the East-centric Sports Media. This gives them at least two CT kickoffs a week, and access to the Texas recruiting market. Travel in and out is easier than Pullman, WA...

Of course, logic only plays a walk-on role in the sinister calculations of ESPN/Disney.

 

[Longhorn from Aledo]

so revenues will fall, but somehow the conference will be better than the pac, be a strong schedule and be part of the cfp?

Yes, y'all are going to have to find a way or the Yankees will be at every Friday Night football game from Longview to Coronado. I don't want them here. The expanded AAC and B12 would be wildly entertaining.

 

[BrewingFrog]

Texas has its reasons for leaving. It's money and more of it. TCU would do the same. The days of Texas being everyone's bogeyman are ending. Find someone else to hate.

You say this while the dagger is still in our back?

Sorry, pal. You'll never live the betrayal down. Ever.

 

[tcufootballjh98]

Agreed Big 12 should get aggressive and poach, in my opinion would prioritize Texas schools first (SMU and Houston) and focus on natural rivalries

The last thing TCU, Baylor and Tech want is added competition for recruits in Houston and DFW. Hard pass

 

[Eight]

Texas has its reasons for leaving. It's money and more of it. TCU would do the same. The days of Texas being everyone's bogeyman are ending. Find someone else to hate.

nope, scheiss texas and please show me anyone on this board that has blamed texas for the issues tcu has faced in terms of performance and recruiting because the horns have been whining about the dregs of the big 12 dragging them down for years

find another board if you don't like those feeling being expressed about the horns because i am fairly confident i am not the only one that feels that way around here

 

[Eight]

Yes, y'all are going to have to find a way or the Yankees will be at every Friday Night football game from Longview to Coronado. I don't want them here. The expanded AAC and B12 would be wildly entertaining.

scheiss off, go find a board with your sec brethern on it

 

[froglash88]

Longhorn = SEC bottom feeder

 

[Palliative Care]

The Board of Regents, the governing body for The University of Texas System, is composed of nine members who are appointed by the Governor and confirmed by the Senate.
So yes politics will come into play as it always does.

 

[vicarfrog]

​

GREAT SONG!

 

[Eight]

The Board of Regents, the governing body for The University of Texas System, is composed of nine members who are appointed by the Governor and confirmed by the Senate.
So yes politics will come into play as it always does.

tell me something that isn't known,

please tell me which school the governor attended?

please tell me who reappointed hicks and and appointed eltife to the board of regents?

it boggles my mind people think something that has been going on for over six months, discussions with people who have made their bones off dealing with extremely complicated transactions hasn't been vetted from every angle

 

[CountryFrog]

Drew D. at the FWST with the current thinking of TCU at the moment, which aligns generally with what I've heard: https://www.star-telegram.com/sports/college/big-12/texas-christian-university/article253045508.html

Overall, the possibilities being theorized:

1. PAC 12 + Big 8 Merger

- Would probably work more like a scheduling partnership, may compete independently at the end of the day
- Biggest Benefit: Would put the combined 20 members in their best negotiating position
- Biggest Risk: Would be highly complicated, look weak, and would be very hard to put together given the egos on both sides

GSR's Likelihood Indicator: Unlikely

2. PAC 12 Goes to 16 (Some version of TxTech, OkState, TCU, and one of the rest)

- Would probably give the PAC the most traditional structure and slight improvement to the TV package
- Biggest Benefit: Nice 8-8 model, everybody makes OK money, the Mtn-Central division will have a clear shot to a Conference Championship most years
- Biggest Risk: Can the Pac 12 make the same money per-member at 12 that it can with this 16 group? Probably, or very close... So what's it worth to the core-12 to be more "stable" at the same $$ otherwise?

GSR's Likelihood Indicator: Possible, but doesn't seem likely yet

3. Big 12 Raid of the PAC to Get To 12-16

- Flip the script, help Pac schools that want to be more athletics-first get to greener pasture
- Biggest Benefit: Puts the core-8 Big 12 members in the driver seat, clear vision of football first
- Biggest Risk: If the Pac is open for raiding, it's going to get raided by the BIG too... Meaning the Big 12 only gets scraps

GSR's Likelihood Indicator: Least likely

Drew throws cold water on TCU to the ACC and SEC, this is accurate. BIG is theoretically possible, but highly unlikely for a number of reasons. I understand TCU is not spending their time on this.

The one thing I disagree with him on is could the Big 8 go and add 4-8 teams from the AAC... This is absolutely on the table IF neither WVU or KU get picked off. The remaining Big 8 are more valuable as a group than the existing AAC in whole (imagine that) on a per-member basis, and going and getting a few of their best plus maybe BYO or Boise in football only would be curious... Again, this isn't the #1 option, but if the Big 8 have no other path, they need to double down and make their own best-case in the Big 12.

To reiterate what I've said before: The BIG is the big player we need to hear from, they hold a bunch of cards. ACC too, though I have an idea what they are working on and will write that out when I have the time.

Once we have the BIG, SEC, and ACC's final intentions stated, then the rest of the pieces start to move.

I defer to you and your knowledge in all this but it's incredibly difficult for me to imagine how the ACC has any power at all in any of this. I have no doubt that they're TRYING to be proactive which I'm sure starts with trying to get Notre Dame in as a full member. But from the outside looking in they are one decision from Clemson away from being in the same spot the Big 12 currently is in.

And for ND, I gotta think their best play is to sit back and watch how this all unfolds because they'll have the pick of any conference they want if they decide the want to be in a conference at some point.

 

[Paul in uhh]

Texas has its reasons for leaving. It's money and more of it. TCU would do the same. The days of Texas being everyone's bogeyman are ending. Find someone else to hate.

Agreed, will be hard to hate on UT when they’re going sub .500 in the sec like aggy. They’ll take on a lovable losers persona, much like the chicago cubs.

for as much whining as UT fans have done over the last decade it’s nothing compared to what they’re gonna do going forward when they’re getting waxed by Alabama and LSU on top of 50/50 games vs aggy and OU. The 2 FCS cupcake games will be much needed to save face, record-wise.

 

[Hoosierfrog]

Texas has its reasons for leaving. It's money and more of it. TCU would do the same. The days of Texas being everyone's bogeyman are ending. Find someone else to hate.

You are a middle of the pack Big 12 football power that can’t beat TCU. You should do well in the SEC. We hated you in the SWC, the WAC, CUSA, MWC, Big East for about a month and we’ll hate you forever. No one ever stopped hating Nazi Germany…