It's simple...
- TCU wins out (helps if OU takes care of West Virginia this week to keep their ranking high);
- Washington d. Washington State in the Apple Cup...allowing a 3-loss Stanford team to go to the Pac-12 title game;
- Stanford wins out (Notre Dame, USC)--knocking out USC and Notre Dame (*a 2-loss TCU should get in over these teams any ways but this will lock them out)
With no more Pac-12 and Notre Dame to worry about...all we have to fear is an SEC non-champion or ACC runner-up getting the nod over us (for example, 11-1 Miami or 11-1/12-1 Alabama). I don't think there's anyway that a 12-1 Wisconsin Big 10 runner-up gets the nod over 11-2 TCU.
I think we should just root for Alabama to win out, taking care of any shenanigans in the SEC with Georgia and Auburn. I would feel more comfortable if Ga Tech pulls of the upset in Atlanta to give Georgia that 2nd loss (but that's a stretch).
It would be nice to see South Carolina upset Clemson in Columbia this week...and then have Miami win out, giving Clemson that 3rd loss, eliminating them from the conversation.
Of course, you always have the potential discussion of OU at 11-2 getting the nod over TCU at 11-2 since they have the win @ Ohio State, which could trump the comparative difference between our neutral site win over OU and their home field win over us. I doubt the committee would do that...but you never know.
I also don't think they would truthfully consider a 13-0 UCF or a 10-2 Penn State team with no significant victories (having lost to tOSU and Michigan State, albeit by very close margins on the road).
If something like this happens, you could be looking at:
#1 Alabama (13-0)
#2 Miami (12-0; they play one less regular season game due to the hurricane)
#3 Wisconsin (13-0) OR TCU (11-2)
#4 TCU (11-2) OR Ohio State (11-2)
Or we could just be happy with a Cotton Bowl match-up in the NY6 after the abomination of last year. But where's the fun in that?