TCU Men's Tennis 2021-2022

[FrogUltimate]

Rybakov just had a nice main draw win in a Challenger.

Both Norrie and Gray withdrew from their respective tournaments. Gray isn't scheduled to play anywhere the next few weeks (or anytime)... must be injured unfortunately.

 

[Jared7]

Well, most of the conference tourney results are in and the champs and automatic slots go to Florida (SEC), Baylor (Big 12), Virginia (ACC), USC (Pac12), Middle Tennessee State (C-USA), SMU (AAC), Harvard (Ivy), Georgia State (Sun Belt), Liberty (Atlantic Sun), ETSU (Southern), Drake (Summit), UNC-Wilmington (Colonial), Western Michigan (MAC), Radford (Big South), Monmouth (Metro), Alabama State (SWAC), ACU (WAC), DePaul (Big East), and Fairleigh Dickinson (Northeast). TCU remains the projected top seed, but just barely, over Florida as #2. And Baylor is #3, which would mean that we would see neither of them until the finals, if then. And Michigan is 7th, which would mean they're with the Baylor and Florida bracket. If all that holds, I kind of like it. So I don't expect it to - CTR is sometimes slightly wrong and the NCAA selection committee can make small adjustments. We'll see next Monday.

 

[Jared7]

Rybakov just had a nice main draw win in a Challenger.

Both Norrie and Gray withdrew from their respective tournaments. Gray isn't scheduled to play anywhere the next few weeks (or anytime)... must be injured unfortunately.

Rybo beat Kaichi Uchida 3 and 2 to advance to the Round of 16 at the Savannah Challenger where he will take on Jason Jung, who advanced after the 3rd seed Emilio Gomez retired. Jung is a former Wolverine - he's American-born but represents Taiwan and he has an ATP ranking of #226. If Alex continues to advance, it might mean J.J. Wolf, the former Buckeye.

Gray might just be avoiding the clay season.

 

[Longfrog]

TCU remains the projected top seed, but just barely, over Florida as #2. And Baylor is #3, which would mean that we would see neither of them until the finals, if then. And Michigan is 7th, which would mean they're with the Baylor and Florida bracket. If all that holds, I kind of like it. So I don't expect it to - CTR is sometimes slightly wrong and the NCAA selection committee can make small adjustments. We'll see next Monday.

At this point in the season, the CTR number should be spot on. The problem early in the season is that ITA only shows the top 25 ranked teams. Since the formula is based on opponent rank, you're left to guess on a lot of point values. But now we know the top 50, which covers all of TCU's countable wins. Same for most of the other top teams.

I agree that the draw looks like it's breaking our way. The losses to Baylor were disappointing, but the win in Waco was critical and we didn't have any bad losses. Won't be easy, but it looks like we'll have the easiest path to the semis of anyone. I'm pretty worried about Kentucky, but that's a ways off and still less of a headache than the alternatives.

 

[FrogUltimate]

Rybo beat Kaichi Uchida 3 and 2 to advance to the Round of 16 at the Savannah Challenger where he will take on Jason Jung, who advanced after the 3rd seed Emilio Gomez retired. Jung is a former Wolverine - he's American-born but represents Taiwan and he has an ATP ranking of #226. If Alex continues to advance, it might mean J.J. Wolf, the former Buckeye.

Gray might just be avoiding the clay season.

I'd think that's possible for Gray, although pretty much unprecedented, but he has withdrawn the past two weeks from tournaments he was entered into to.

 

[Jared7]

If you're into speculating about who's likely to be in the Frogs' regional, CTR currently projects Mississippi and LSU at #32 and #33 and the lowest ranked conference champ with an auto-bid is Fairleigh Dickinson at #162. But ACU isn't all that far away from that at #126, and that's the sort of regional adjustment that the committee might make. The teams right around #32-33 are Northwestern, VCU, Miami, Utah, Memphis and OU. I'm guessing that our regional opponents will be 3 of those.

The projected #16 is Stanford.

 

[froglash88]

Never understood the attraction to Waco

 

[Jared7]

The Big 10 will be holding their conference tourney this weekend, so there is still a possibility of some changes in the ITA rankings prior to the May 3 selection day. Also, it's only counting the Top 9 W's this week and won't expand to the full 10 W's until after this weekend. This could inform the speculation regarding seeds and regional opponents.

Reese Stalder ended up losing in doubles at the Tallahassee Challenger (w/Alex Lawson). At Savannah, Rybo won't be playing until tomorrow in the Round of 16.

 

[Jared7]

The CTR projections have been updated. Wake Forest is now projected 8th over #9 Kentucky; the #'32 and #33 are now Mississippi and Notre Dame; Oklahoma, Tech, Tulsa and Ashley Fisher's USF (barely) are all in; Arizona is now 16th ahead of #17 Stanford. I'm still a little concerned that we could be passed by Florida...

 

[Jared7]

Alex Rybakov's match against Jason Jung in Savannah has started and it's now 4-all in the first set. Reese Stalder and Alex Lawson were also in the doubles there but just lost 1 and 3.

Rybo plays the clutch points well; saving 4 break points and winning the first set 7-5!

 

[Jared7]

Woo hoo! Rybo takes the match 7-5, 6-4 and advances to the quarters of the Savannah Challenger!

 

[FrogUltimate]

Woo hoo! Rybo takes the match 7-5, 6-4 and advances to the quarters of the Savannah Challenger!

Per the announcer, supposedly this is his first Challenger QF. Up near his career high now.... past two matches are easily the most consistent I've seen his forehand.

Jung is the worst volleyer I've seen sub 400 ranking. Remarkable.

 

[Longfrog]

I'm still a little concerned that we could be passed by Florida...

The CTR forecast hinges on whether the computer does a single or double run next week. Single run and Florida would jump to #1, double run means TCU stays. Do we know? And obviously Big10 results could matter. The fact we played both Ohio State and UM is good. Florida played neither. So a chance we could pick up some points if either of those teams improve their ranking.

Edit: I believe it's a double run which keeps us #1. Unfortunately it also drops UM below Wake by the slimmest of margins, which would give the Wolverines the 8 seed and put them on our side of the draw.

Also unfortunate is that Ohio State apparently had a COVID outbreak last week which prevented them from playing--and almost surely beating--Wisconsin. The non-loss for the Badgers leaves them as the #3 seed in the Big 10 tourney and opposite UM in the draw. The computers don't like Wisconsin nearly as much as #4 seed Northwestern, which would have been the 3 seed had OSU beaten Wisky. Basically, where UM would have only needed to reach the finals to get the points needed to move back up from the #8 seed nationally, they now need to win the whole tournament.

 

[Jared7]

Per the announcer, supposedly this is his first Challenger QF. Up near his career high now.... past two matches are easily the most consistent I've seen his forehand.

Jung is the worst volleyer I've seen sub 400 ranking. Remarkable.

I've been following him closely ever since he left TCU (2019) and I don't remember him ever doing well at a Challenger. I saw him at the Waukegan Challenger that year but he lost in the first round. He'll get the winner between Jason Kubler (Aussie; ATP#170) and J.J. Wolf (former Buckeye; ATP#142) for a chance at the semis. He won't be favored against either, but maybe this could be his breakthrough tourney.

 

[Jared7]

The CTR forecast hinges on whether the computer does a single or double run next week. Single run and Florida would jump to #1, double run means TCU stays. Do we know? And obviously Big10 results could matter. The fact we played both Ohio State and UM is good. Florida played neither. So a chance we could pick up some points if either of those teams improve their ranking.

Edit: I believe it's a double run which keeps us #1. Unfortunately it also drops UM below Wake by the slimmest of margins, which would give the Wolverines the 8 seed and put them on our side of the draw.

Also unfortunate is that Ohio State apparently had a COVID outbreak last week which prevented them from playing--and almost surely beating--Wisconsin. The non-loss for the Badgers leaves them as the #3 seed in the Big 10 tourney and opposite UM in the draw. The computers don't like Wisconsin nearly as much as #4 seed Northwestern, which would have been the 3 seed had OSU beaten Wisky. Basically, where UM would have only needed to reach the finals to get the points needed to move back up from the #8 seed nationally, they now need to win the whole tournament.

Your summary is why I'm a little worried. Florida's 10th W earns way more points than our #10 W and they won their tourney and have only 2 losses and haven't lost outdoors. All of the "experts" are picking them. They're the defending champ. They're the "favorite." Even if we barely eke out a double-run 10 W count in the ITA formula, I could still see them as the top seed if that's what the selection committee thinks.

Regarding the Big10, if Ohio State wins, we would want them to pass Baylor, so that we get a few more points (Baylor gets a LOT from their 2 W's over us) from our W over the Buckeyes. And we would want them to beat Michigan, the highest ranked possible opponent. Otherwise, we didn't beat Michigan so how they do won't affect us much. But frankly, I'd much rather see Northwestern or Illinois win that tournament howsoever it affects us.

I've stared at the ITA formula and the CTR projections for longer than is healthy and I think I understand it but am not entirely sure. We might still get the top seed but maybe not. In any event, the #1 and #2 seeds won't be all that different and it might be better psychologically to be #2 and put that "favorite" tag on Florida.

 

[Longfrog]

Otherwise, we didn't beat Michigan so how they do won't affect us much.

If they worked their way up to #5 in the ranking, it would give us fewer loss points. Doubt they could climb that high though, even with a win vs OSU.

We might still get the top seed but maybe not. In any event, the #1 and #2 seeds won't be all that different and it might be better psychologically to be #2 and put that "favorite" tag on Florida.

If the 8/9 seeding is not as favorable as hoped, then I agree. It doesn't really matter that much beyond it being cool to see us as #1 seed.

 

[Jared7]

Rybakov will play J.J. Wolf in the quarters at Savannah. Wolf got a 3-set W over Kubler earlier today. Wolf and Torpegaard were a prior iteration of the Buckeye juggernaut at Ohio State. We lost to them in 2017 in the quarters of the NCAA's in a heartbreaking fashion - losing 3-4 after falling in doubles and winning 3 singles matches. Rybo (then #21 in the ITA) played Wolf (then 46th) at #2 and beat him 4 and 4. And Norrie beat Torp. Since then, the positions have reversed and Wolf is much higher ranked. Like Norrie, he skipped through the Futures level fairly quickly, is currently ATP#142 and has been playing Challengers mostly and some ATP tour level events. Wolf is where Rybo would like to be. How much have their games improved since college? They've never met in the pros. Can Rybo beat him again?

 

[FrogUltimate]

Rybakov will play J.J. Wolf in the quarters at Savannah. Wolf got a 3-set W over Kubler earlier today. Wolf and Torpegaard were a prior iteration of the Buckeye juggernaut at Ohio State. We lost to them in 2017 in the quarters of the NCAA's in a heartbreaking fashion - losing 3-4 after falling in doubles and winning 3 singles matches. Rybo (then #21 in the ITA) played Wolf (then 46th) at #2 and beat him 4 and 4. And Norrie beat Torp. Since then, the positions have reversed and Wolf is much higher ranked. Like Norrie, he skipped through the Futures level fairly quickly, is currently ATP#142 and has been playing Challengers mostly and some ATP tour level events. Wolf is where Rybo would like to be. How much have their games improved since college? They've never met in the pros. Can Rybo beat him again?

I've watched a little bit of Wolf and he's definitely a notch above. Thinking clay will neutralize to a degree, but we'll see. They are last match on, probably around 2pm

 

[Jared7]

The Cracked Racquets guys are still very high on Florida - all agreeing that the question is who's going to be #2. But the good news is that they also agreed that TCU is going to be the top seed and Baylor and Florida would meet in the semis; not the finals as they've projected all year. They also were very complimentary of Boitan and Fomba's W over him (his first L of the year) was especially impressive. They were also still confused by TCU's line-up; suggesting that if Vives is slotted above Fearnley, there would clearly be challenges from some coaches. This week, they treated the Big 12 with much more respect than last week, when it all was such a joke. (It helped that Stachowiak was replaced by Parsa Nemati this week which meant more serious commentary). They think that TCU is "top tier" and clearly a "contender" but they just aren't sold on the Frogs and think Baylor, Florida, Ohio State and Tennessee (now that Monday's is back after a W over Riffice in the SEC final) are better. They also remain high on Texas; despite all their injuries. Officially, they dropped us to 5th.

 

[Jared7]

Rybakov-Wolf is about to start in Savannah. (I'll be at work).