The upside is that he gets to be the starting QB for one of the most prominent football programs in history while getting 4 million dollars. To say there isn’t an upside for him personally is baseless. In fact, it is almost no downside for him. I think it’s bad for OU and Oakland, but that’s not his problem.
Kyler Murray signs with A's, will QB Sooners this fall
- Thread starter TopFrog
- Start date
Hughes Your Daddy
Active Member
It could be that he just loves football, and wanted one more chance to trot out onto the field before hanging them up for good.
I get it's a risky financial decision, and could jeopardize his baseball career, but there are no guarantees of success for him at the next level. If I were him, I'd probably soak up every opportunity I could as well. Getting to quarterback a blue chip team with conference (and, less realistically, national) title aspirations? That kid will have memories of things most people only dream of.
Eight
Member
the downside for murray is that he sustains an injury that dramatically impacts or even ends his baseball career and therefore wipes out the chance of a major league career and the potential earnings from that career etc....
trouble is how do you actually quantify the probability of his making the majors let alone his level of success to even approximate the potential level of mlb income, endorsements etc.......
uncle calvin knows as well as anyone that if you can't hit and you struggle to get on base it doesn't matter how damn fast you are you won't stay in the majors very long.
i think that is what makes this such an odd decision by the a's to put out that much money to someone not completely committed to baseball when mlb draft picks might be the least sure of the big 3 sports and they are not exactly a cash flush organization
trouble is how do you actually quantify the probability of his making the majors let alone his level of success to even approximate the potential level of mlb income, endorsements etc.......
uncle calvin knows as well as anyone that if you can't hit and you struggle to get on base it doesn't matter how damn fast you are you won't stay in the majors very long.
i think that is what makes this such an odd decision by the a's to put out that much money to someone not completely committed to baseball when mlb draft picks might be the least sure of the big 3 sports and they are not exactly a cash flush organization
LisaLT
Active Member
Um career ending injury is a huge downside. That is the point. The A’s are really foolish to allow that. I doubt the NYYs would make a deal like that.
Unless he has something catastrophic happen there are very few injuries that could occur that would limit him in baseball. And he’s getting $4 million dollars to take that minimal risk. And he gets to be the starting QB for the Sooners. And he gets to be a professional baseball player. Saying there is no upside is stupid. He’s having his cake and eating it too.
Smellslikeroses
Full Member
Smellslikeroses
Full Member
Also, both team and Murray have insurance policies. This just covers football players but the idea is the same: http://es.pn/2aZxTdV
LisaLT
Active Member
Let’s see if he makes it thru the season first before acting like this was a brilliant idea. He’s got a target on his back for sure.
flyfishingfrog
Active Member
Really - if he blows out his knee this year and ends his baseball career there is a lot of downside
His insurance policy isn’t going to cover a career of mlb salaries and given what the A’s think of him, he seems like an above average bet to have a pretty good career
Look up the total lifetime earnings of a solid hitting outfielder with 10+ years in the mlb plus pension value
A 1 in 20 shot a college national championship is not worth the trade off
Eight
Member
the part i don't understand with the a's is their willingness to pay that amount of money to a prospect who it looks like won't play a legit game of baseball until next spring.
he can go take all the swings he wants in cages etc....but if he is working out with ou this summer that means he isn't getting all those reps with wood bats against a consistently higher level of pitching than he has seen to this point in his career.
maybe he is that good and maybe he is that talented, but he is also 21 years of age and yet to put in a full year's work into baseball. the one thing i continually hear from the astros' young players is the working on their routine, honing the process, recognizing the mental grind of the long season and having to adjust to the advanced scouting etc.......
bregman is 24 and it took him roughly 13 months to go from being drafted to move their the astros system to the big club in 2016. guy works his ass off, knows the strike zone, has great awareness of the game, and goodness knows how many swings between high school, all those games in college, summer league, and once he got drafted
they aren't the same types of player, but there was never a doubt bregman was dedicated to playing baseball and in all honesty, murray who is the 9th pick over all and turns 21 in august has never dedicated himself to baseball for one season.
he can go take all the swings he wants in cages etc....but if he is working out with ou this summer that means he isn't getting all those reps with wood bats against a consistently higher level of pitching than he has seen to this point in his career.
maybe he is that good and maybe he is that talented, but he is also 21 years of age and yet to put in a full year's work into baseball. the one thing i continually hear from the astros' young players is the working on their routine, honing the process, recognizing the mental grind of the long season and having to adjust to the advanced scouting etc.......
bregman is 24 and it took him roughly 13 months to go from being drafted to move their the astros system to the big club in 2016. guy works his ass off, knows the strike zone, has great awareness of the game, and goodness knows how many swings between high school, all those games in college, summer league, and once he got drafted
they aren't the same types of player, but there was never a doubt bregman was dedicated to playing baseball and in all honesty, murray who is the 9th pick over all and turns 21 in august has never dedicated himself to baseball for one season.
FrogAbroad
Full Member
“Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life.”
– Steve Jobs
– Steve Jobs
Chico Dusty
Active Member
I don’t know the stats, but how many guys, or starting QBs in P5, blow out their knee and never play again? Not that many last year. In fact, a lot of guys that do, get surgery and come back bigger and badder. Why did Baker play this year? Why did anyone that was a lock for the first round NFL draft play? There is risk in a lot of things ppl do. Maybe this kid wants to live life to the fullest and soak up all these incredible opportunities he has. I’m with @PO Frog on this.
flyfishingfrog
Active Member
How many guys hurt themselves playing non contact baseball this year and will never get a shot at the pros because of it? A lot and there are a ton of things that could happen to him in a football field where guys play hurt everyday that could limit his career in baseball where his speed, arm and his power combined are the reason he was so highly projected
Seriously - what’s the upside for him? Is OU going to beat Bama this year with Murray at the helm when they couldn’t even get to that game with Baker?
Or is a big12 title run really worth a year of experience playing his long term career?
Chico Dusty
Active Member
What? You didn’t even come close to addressing the questions I addressed. I didn’t say anything about OU winning a championship or beating Bama. Maybe he wants to compete, and again enjoy his life. I just said there is a lot of chatter about him getting hurt and never playing sports again. Name me one QB last year that started P5 football and will never play competitive sports again. Yeah, sure it happen, but with any decision I’d like to factor the past data and make an informed decision. I would guess it’s a calculated risk based on the stats.
Eight
Member
baker played this year in large part because he wasn't a lock in the 2017 draft and he was able to raise his stock. he wasn't sitting out 4.7M and delaying by roughly a year starting a pro career.
in the case of murray the ability to hitting a major league breaking ball isn't the only question. kenny hill had a more established track record throwing the football transferring out of atm than murray.
you can put stock into the practice reports from some sooner boards, but according to practice reports dwight smith was a lock for multiple heismans and omar manning is headed to the nfl in two years.
murray is doing it i guess because he can, but that doesnt mean there isn't a downside. it is just tougher to gauge.
Chico Dusty
Active Member
I never said there wasn’t a down side. There is a downside of most situations. I just like to focus on data - and by a large margin, more starting P5 QBs don’t have career ending injuries than do. It’s simple as that.
A career of MLB salaries isn’t the greatest metric to compare risk. And a national title is not the only reason to play football. The odds of him having a career ending injury that would prevent him from playing baseball at the same level are minuscule. Certainly small enough to take an almost $5million payday in the worst case scenario. Sure he could be missing out on a $100 million 15 year big league career, but the chances of that are about the same as him having a career ending injury. Not large enough to be basing your decision on. Also, at the end of the day, he will have earned almost $5 million by the age of 22. He’s having his cake and eating it too.
CountryFrog
Active Member
What's the data on number of first round picks in a sport who elect to put their career in that sport on hold for a year to play a different sport in college that they have no future in?
