Finebaum Can't Watch More Than 2 Games a Week

[kodiak]

Stephen A. Smith also has a stupid hot take. He's suggesting TCU doesn't belong in the CFP because "competition matters" and he listed off our schedule starting with Colorado. He totally ignores the schedules Michigan and tOSU have played and the fact that his own mouse ear network has ours rated as the #1 strength of record. These boobs are nauseating.

If they strayed that far from the narratives on the news side, they would be cancelled.

 

[JogginFrog]

I think we are alive if we lose one, but it would have to be this week, it would have to be a close margin, and even then we’d barely be alive. For one, I don’t think we could jump back ahead of Tennessee.

Yes, agree. 13-0 TCU is in; 1-loss non-Big 12 champ TCU is out; the only permutations to consider are for 1-loss conference champ TCU, and most of those are obvious.

12-1 Big 12 champ TCU would be behind...
SEC Champ
Big 10 Champ
12-1 Georgia (if LSU is SEC champ)
12-1 USC with closing wins over UCLA, Notre Dame and the PAC North champ
11-1 Tennessee--people would scream about 3 SEC teams but it could happen

12-1 Big 12 champ TCU would be ahead of...
12-1 G5 conference champs
Any 2-loss team not named LSU

So, assume UGa beats LSU and USC loses again to open up the 4th spot. That leaves:
12-1 ACC champ Clemson
12-1 ACC champ North Carolina
11-1 Ohio State
11-1 Michigan

I think TCU gets the nod over either ACC team unless the Frogs lose badly.

The real question is whether TCU would get the nod over 11-1 Michigan or Ohio State with a clear conference championship and an extra data point. (When have we seen that before?)

 

[Wexahu]

Yes, agree. 13-0 TCU is in; 1-loss non-Big 12 champ TCU is out; the only permutations to consider are for 1-loss conference champ TCU, and most of those are obvious.

12-1 Big 12 champ TCU would be behind...
SEC Champ
Big 10 Champ
12-1 Georgia (if LSU is SEC champ)
12-1 USC with closing wins over UCLA, Notre Dame and the PAC North champ
11-1 Tennessee--people would scream about 3 SEC teams but it could happen

12-1 Big 12 champ TCU would be ahead of...
12-1 G5 conference champs
Any 2-loss team not named LSU

So, assume UGa beats LSU and USC loses again to open up the 4th spot. That leaves:
12-1 ACC champ Clemson
12-1 ACC champ North Carolina
11-1 Ohio State
11-1 Michigan

I think TCU gets the nod over either ACC team unless the Frogs lose badly.

The real question is whether TCU would get the nod over 11-1 Michigan or Ohio State with a clear conference championship and an extra data point. (When have we seen that before?)

I think yes on the last question especially if it is Michigan. But I wouldn’t bet all I had on it. I don’t think both LSU and Tennessee get in under almost any scenario.

Edit: as to the last point, yes, we’ve seen it before. Are you telling us we win our CCG by 40+ points? Or by a FG? It does make a difference.

 

[PineyWoodsFrog]

She also wrote we are alive if we lose 1.

Logically, we should still be alive with 1 loss. Truthfully, we have no shot of getting in with a loss, especially this late in the season. Teams get rewarded for losing early - you fall in the rankings, but have plenty of games to get back up. USC is a prime example this year.

 

[Wexahu]

Logically, we should still be alive with 1 loss. Truthfully, we have no shot of getting in with a loss, especially this late in the season. Teams get rewarded for losing early - you fall in the rankings, but have plenty of games to get back up. USC is a prime example this year.

Sure we do, but will need some help. What if USC and Clemson lose again and we beat KSU by 3 TDs in the CCG?

 

[gofor2]

If it's between a 1-loss Ohio St and a 1 loss TCU for the last invite, guess who's getting in?

 

[Wexahu]

If it's between a 1-loss Ohio St and a 1 loss TCU for the last invite, guess who's getting in?

Depends. If we win our CCG game by 30+ points, I’d say we get the nod.

 

[gofor2]

Depends. If we win our CCG game by 30+ points, I’d say we get the nod.

I guess I hadn't included fantasies when I thought about this

 

[Wexahu]

I guess I hadn't included fantasies when I thought about this

History that you seemed to reference says that isn’t really a fantasy.

 

[gofor2]

History that you seemed to reference says that isn’t really a fantasy.

 

[PurplFrawg]

Depends.

Seems like an appropriate response in a thread about Finebaum.

 

[TAINTed frog]

I'm no football expert but if there is a formula out there that indicates we've played the most difficult schedule in the country this year, that formula is pretty worthless. We haven't played an awful schedule but let's get real.

I guess if that metric is so valuable to Heather, why did she pick us #3 and not #1?

Winning against 4 top 25 in a row at the time is pretty remarkable. It’s only the 3rd time it’s happened. Regardless of where those teams are now. That’s scheissing tough.

But I’m sure you’ll find something to nit pick. You act like a voice of reason but really you’re simply a big state apologist. You’re probably Opus Dei to be honest.

 

[Bruce Berry]

Logically, we should still be alive with 1 loss. Truthfully, we have no shot of getting in with a loss, especially this late in the season. Teams get rewarded for losing early - you fall in the rankings, but have plenty of games to get back up. USC is a prime example this year.

I don't think thats true. Hopefully its a moot point.

 

[Rex Kramer]

If it's between a 1-loss Ohio St and a 1 loss TCU for the last invite, guess who's getting in?

Depends. If we win our CCG game by 30+ points, I’d say we get the nod.

Wouldn’t that just be some beautiful poetic justice…

Edit: But let’s make sure that doesn’t happen. Go Frogs!

 

[Wexahu]

Gotta say, it’s comical when some blowhards on the radio talk about how we gotta get TCU out of the Top 4 because “they couldn’t compete with Georgia”. Georgia beat Oregon 49-3. They beat Tennessee (the team they want in) by 2 TDs in a game that wasn’t that close and was clear from the get go that UT had no chance.

I don’t know if we’d be competitive with Georgia, very likely not, but I don’t think USC, Michigan or Clemson would either.

 

[CountryFrog]

Gotta say, it’s comical when some blowhards on the radio talk about how we gotta get TCU out of the Top 4 because “they couldn’t compete with Georgia”. Georgia beat Oregon 49-3. They beat Tennessee (the team they want in) by 2 TDs in a game that wasn’t that close and was clear from the get go that UT had no chance.

I don’t know if we’d be competitive with Georgia, very likely not, but I don’t think USC, Michigan or Clemson would either.

This is the thing. I think whoever has the misfortune of playing Georgia in the semifinal is likely to have an ugly one and done. That doesn't mean whoever that team is now suddenly sucks. It just means Georgia is really really good.

But of course anything can happen and that's why games are played on football fields with humans and not inside computers with formulas.

 

[Wexahu]

This is the thing. I think whoever has the misfortune of playing Georgia in the semifinal is likely to have an ugly one and done. That doesn't mean whoever that team is now suddenly sucks. It just means Georgia is really really good.

But of course anything can happen and that's why games are played on football fields with humans and not inside computers with formulas.

Exactly right.

But I’ll just say that when Notre Dame has lost in uncompetitive games in the playoffs before a lot of people are quick to say, see, they shouldn’t have been a playoff team, they are just there because the committee loves them, what a joke. And they said the same thing about FSU ‘14.

 

[CountryFrog]

Exactly right.

But I’ll just say that when Notre Dame has lost in uncompetitive games in the playoffs before a lot of people are quick to say, see, they shouldn’t have been a playoff team, they are just there because the committee loves them, what a joke. And they said the same thing about FSU ‘14.

FSU didn't lose to the best team in the country. They got destroyed by a team that went on to get destroyed the next week. But still I'll give you that one since it was only one game and [ Finebaum ] happens in games sometimes.

Notre Dame is in a totally different ballpark. They've been in the playoff or BCS NCG 4 times I believe and gotten blown out every single time. I'm not sure that they've even won any of the NY6 non playoff games that they've played in. So we're talking about a team that has a very long history of being totally uncompetitive virtually every time they find themselves in a big game. And they don't even have to win their conference or play in a CCG to get there the way everyone else outside of the SEC does. So I think that's another thing that's frustrating for people and especially for those of us who were told how important that 13th data point was a few years ago.

 

[Wexahu]

FSU didn't lose to the best team in the country. They got destroyed by a team that went on to get destroyed the next week. But still I'll give you that one since it was only one game and [ #2020 ] happens in games sometimes.

Notre Dame is in a totally different ballpark. They've been in the playoff or BCS NCG 4 times I believe and gotten blown out every single time. I'm not sure that they've even won any of the NY6 non playoff games that they've played in. So we're talking about a team that has a very long history of being totally uncompetitive virtually every time they find themselves in a big game. And they don't even have to win their conference or play in a CCG to get there the way everyone else outside of the SEC does. So I think that's another thing that's frustrating for people and especially for those of us who were told how important that 13th data point was a few years ago.

I get the frustration but in their defense, they generally play a very solid schedule (no FCS game for one thing) and I think in one of the playoff years they were undefeated and in the other one they were a 1-loss team in a year there were only four undefeated or 1-loss teams. Could be wrong on that last point but too lazy to look it up.

 

[CountryFrog]

I get the frustration but in their defense, they generally play a very solid schedule (no FCS game for one thing) and I think in one of the playoff years they were undefeated and in the other one they were a 1-loss team in a year there were only four undefeated or 1-loss teams. Could be wrong on that last point but too lazy to look it up.

I'm not even arguing that they shouldn't be allowed in the playoff any of those years. But when you bring up Notre Dame then you're not simply talking about one bad game the way I was. There's an extended history there over the last 20 years or so of repeated failures with very little to no success.