Yep, the 57% for Michigan after losing to Ohio State does not appear to make sense, so that toy tool loses some credibility.
But, I think TCU still has a good chance with one loss and a P5 CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP. Assumimg the committee measures “quality wins” more than that one loss (I remember 2014), then a road win at Baylor could have more value than a home win versus Iowa State. May seem counterintuitive, because that Iowa State loss would be an ugly one, but a road win at Baylor against a team most perceive as better than Iowa State brings more value to the “quality wins” side of the ledger. And as far as the loss, maybe the committee will consider the grind of TCU playing 11 consecutive weeks.
That being said, Colorado not being a “quality win,” could cause TCU to be one good win short. Root for SMU to beat Memphis so that they finish with a winning record.