Big East do not let ESPN stick it to you, Big 10 didn't.

[mtmedlin]

My argument is really rather simple. To maximize the contract we need two things. 1. Enough Inventory to get two primary tv partners, similar to the PAC12 and 2. enough leftover inventory to package along with our olympic sports to form a network.

In order to do that, we must get up to 12. If we assume that we are not going to get any teams within a AQ conference then it realistically leaves us with this list: BYU, Air Force, Houston, Memphis, UCF, ECU, Nova, Army and Navy.

There are a few criteria that the BE looks at.
1. Academic prestige. The Presidents have openly stated a desire to only have Tier 1 schools, or non-research schools with strong academic reputation (TCU)
2. Large markets. Whether or not a team is largely watche, having an anchor in a market will get the BEN onto the basic cable, which is very profitable.
3. Facilities and commitment to bulding sports.
4. The Desire to not add more "all sports members" or acceptance of football only.
5. Support by current football members

Number one eliminates Memphis and ECU. Again, I love the fans and crazy support of ECU but the reality is that there will be 16 presidents voting and they have to get at least 75% to vote yes. The basketball side and a few football will not vote for Memphis or ECU based simply off their academics.
Large Markets, I will rank in size order for preference: BYU (national appeal) Army, Navy, Nova, Houston, Air Force, UCF, Memphis, ECU
Facilities: Based on the assumption of a Big East invite: BYU has great facilities already,Houston (will do $160 million in upgrades, with an invite it would get done, no point in arguing) ECU has good facilities, UCF has cheap but new facilities (Entire stadium cost $55 million but with over $300 million in bond loans, they arent upgrading anytime soon) Army/Navy "may" upgrade but since their government owned the process is very long and difficult, MEmphis sucks all alround.
Will take "football only" - ECU, Army, Navy and Nova is already basketball.
Support: Nova is one football team away from being added, the rest I cannot say except that open support has been said for Houston by USF, Louisville, Rutgers and West Virginia (not suprising that all administrations have some connection to the school and area) Only one school has been openly opposed....UCF and no suprise that it is lead by UCF.

Based off of what I feel is fairly unbiased, I can understand why there are reports that Nova, Army and Navy are the leading candidates. If BYU were to actually join, then I think Air Force becomes a strong option but otherwise I dont see it. If Army/Navy decline (which is a real possibility) then I see Houston moving into a slot. If BYU accepts then UCF is completely out, if BYU says no then their is a chance but I would put Houston ahead in the pecking order but not leading several other teams. Memphis has zero chance.

Lastly as a response to one poster that keeps saying the TCU is a one shot deal and that their admin will keep any Texas school out... Your in the Big East now. THE most disfunctional conference in history. No single team can pull off what you state. If Houston builds those upgrades and ends this year with another sellout and a CUSA championship...there wont be much TCU can do to stop an invite but If I were to place money right now, I think the rumors of Nova, Army and Navy make alot of sense...not loving it, but it makes sense.

 

[froginaustin]

If UHou builds those upgrades, then one of several serious reasons that I believe UH is poison for ANY conference that's a step up from C-USA will go away. However, to take the word of the cheerleaders for UHou athletics that they will get it done, with or without autobid conference money, is to ignore recent history at UHou, and to ignore the political realities of Texas politics.

UH's administration has announced grand plans for facilities before, followed by deafening silence as their plans were not funded.

Don't count on UH using public bonding authority any time soon, to build 8 or 9 figures worth of athletic facilities with borrowed money. Before the economy declined beginning about 2008, UH's announced plans to raise half the money to upgrade their facilities, and borrow to raise the rest, was possibly realistic. Now, I don't think it is, because the State of Texas is in no position at present to back such bonds. Budgetary/political reality that certainly may change in the next few years or decades.

If they really can get it done facilities-wise, then consider them after they have it done-- the TCU model for an upgrade in conferences.

Rice, Sam Houston State, and Texas Southern are all football-playing universities in the Houston metro area. They don't capture the TV eyeballs or the ticket-buying money of the Houston metro area. Neither does the University of Houston. A small fraction of a big market will work for a conference that needs its members to bring in ~20mm a year, unless the fraction is just too small. That's UH. And the BE can't change that for them.

 

[Scarface]

You are right, we are national.. because we have been in 4-5 conferences in a 13 year span. We jump ship so often that Allied or Mayflower should be our corporate sponsor.

The only strategy we are following is "who looks better now?"

Piss on UCF, UH, BU or anyone else you want but it is a proven fact that having a fierce and long-standing rivalry is good for the development of a school and its druthers. OU-UT. FL-FLST. USC-UCLA. ND-MICH.

If we are ever going to be a national brand, then we need to have a consistent rival..that is all I am saying and I only say it because it would help us. This whole me against the world stuff you are riding on had its place a while back when we were still cutting our teeth, but we should be way past that now.

Plus you are off on the "SWC rivals who proved themselves to be not our friends". We have played an old rival at least once a year for the better part of a decade...

TCU is not alone. Utah, Nebraska and Colorado are going through the same type of change by switching conferences. Change in this case is good!

We will form new rivalries in the big East just like we did in the MWC with Utah and BYU.

Even in Texas high school football, the different schools are switching classifications or changing districts. New high schools are built.

The TCU Administration is not interested in reviving alliances or back-tracking our way towards our old security blanket, the SWC.

TCU will not be working with any school in Texas or the surrounding states to join the Big East. This is the same policy the school had while in the MWC. Why is anyone surprised?

TCU has developed itself as the only FBS program in Texas that knows how to stand on its own two feet. Example being, UT got scared of leaving the slimmed down Big 12 for the PAC 12 and the bigger money and ran back into the arms of aTm.



Go Frogs!

 

[gohornedfrogs]

Piss on UCF, UH, BU or anyone else you want but it is a proven fact that having a fierce and long-standing rivalry is good for the development of a school and its druthers. OU-UT. FL-FLST. USC-UCLA. ND-MICH.

Nobody outside of Waco or Fort Worth gives a darn about a TCU/Baylor game...I wouldn't compare that to ANY of the great rivalries you mentioned. If the Big 12 implodes, Baylor is on their own. They've done nothing but try to diminish us at every opportunity over the years and it wouldn't bother me a bit to see them languish in C-USA for a while. Besides, Kansas, KState and Mizzou would be available, and those teams present much better options.

But like I said, I'm on the fence about UH given the fact that right now there aren't any other options that are much better. I posted on the Big East Fan Zone board that at least Houston has had some history of success in football, their basketball team had a fantastic stretch, they had some of the greatest track and field athletes of all time, their baseball team has potential, and their golf team's history is only matched by Oklahoma State in the modern era.

I lean towards doing nothing right now. Ultimately, the TV networks will give the Big East leadership an idea of who might add the most value, if anybody -- and that's what will drive the decision.

 

[mtmedlin]

Ultimately, the TV networks will give the Big East leadership an idea of who might add the most value, if anybody -- and that's what will drive the decision.

I think you hit the nail on the head. Ultimately what will happen is ESPN will say "We will pay X for these teams" Comcast and Fox will do the same. Whomever bid higher will determine who we invite. If the stories were hearing are true then it was ESPN who was willing to go with adding just Nova and staying at 10. Comcast was leaning toward Nova, Army and Navy.

16 months...

 

[cdsfrog]

I think you hit the nail on the head. Ultimately what will happen is ESPN will say "We will pay X for these teams" Comcast and Fox will do the same. Whomever bid higher will determine who we invite. If the stories were hearing are true then it was ESPN who was willing to go with adding just Nova and staying at 10. Comcast was leaning toward Nova, Army and Navy. 16 months...

Navy would be fricking awesome. Doubt it happens but I would be giddy Not saying this from anything other than a personal perspective. I really like Navy and Airforce

 

[jonatbaylor]

Totally agree.

Although I think Kansas has lots of potential. Needs a good coach. They invest a lot in their program

sarcasm right?

 

[jonatbaylor]

Navy would be fricking awesome. Doubt it happens but I would be giddy Not saying this from anything other than a personal perspective. I really like Navy and Airforce

I think TCU/BYU/Navy/Air Force/Boise State and Utah would have been an awesome conference. Too many changes and musical chairs.

Boise state has to be irritated with their recent jump and other teams recent exits..

 

[jonatbaylor]

Nobody outside of Waco or Fort Worth gives a darn about a TCU/Baylor game...I wouldn't compare that to ANY of the great rivalries you mentioned.

But like I said, I'm on the fence about UH given the fact that right now there aren't any other options that are much better.
I lean towards doing nothing right now.

Well I shot a bit high there naming the big schools but it wasn't their prominence I was try to compare. My only point with those rivalries is that they are long standing and close in a geographical standpoint.

We won't ever be able to have a rivalry if we keep jumping ship every 4 years and playing in the BE will not be conducive to having a rivarly as the teams are 1900 miles away...that is all I'm saying.

I suppose we do have a budding rivaly with Boise State..

Oh and you may be right about the "outside of Ft. Worth/Waco" but that is not a permanent situation.

national followings only come with success...if TCU and BU were successful, yeah, I think people would follow them despite where they are. You think anyone outside of ohio and michigan would give a damn about OHST and MI if those programs sucked?

 

[jonatbaylor]

We will form new rivalries in the big East just like we did in the MWC with Utah and BYU.

Even in Texas high school football, the different schools are switching classifications or changing districts. New high schools are built.

The TCU Administration is not interested in reviving alliances or back-tracking our way towards our old security blanket, the SWC.

TCU will not be working with any school in Texas or the surrounding states to join the Big East. This is the same policy the school had while in the MWC. Why is anyone surprised?

TCU has developed itself as the only FBS program in Texas that knows how to stand on its own two feet. Example being,


Go Frogs!

I get it and I see your points and I like several. But we can't have a rivalry with someone unless we play them every year..over a sustained period of time. And we haven't had that since leaving the SWC 15 years ago.

We don't have to play a former SWC or even a Texas school. Circle a 200 mile radius around Ft. Worth and tell me who would be the best rival and the one that would actually be possible...then put them on the schedule for the next, oh 10 years in a row. I dunno...

Where you really lost your footing was this one though

UT got scared of leaving the slimmed down Big 12 for the PAC 12 and the bigger money and ran back into the arms of aTm.

UT was in no position to lose... I bet that OU/UT/USC/OSU conference would have been terrible to watch!

And this one

TCU is not alone. Utah, Nebraska and Colorado are going through the same type of change by switching conferences. Change in this case is good!

Yes, they will make new rivalries. But they also don't jump ship at will, either. TCU needs to find a good home and stay somewhere more than 4 years lol

 

[jonatbaylor]

Houston area matters little when you deminish the conference with a pathetic joke of a team. Houston hasnt been good for 3 decades and isnt on it's way up. They have averaged around 27k attendance per game for the last 3 years.....pretty pathetic when their student base is above 40k.

let the one who has never sinned throw the first stone

Wow dude, reading this statement makes me wonder if you even know our history and why we have faced the obstacles we have had to face the last 15 years.

You know that from 1942-1997, a 55 year stretch we won 1 bowl game, right? So it is not like these things can't change. You also know that our school and alumni base is small and we have been overlooked by bowls because of our lack of travel and attendance right? (and actually, this harks back to some points I was making on a totally diff post, but that we should look at some steady student enrollment increases over the next 10 years, getting us to at least 12-14k. To keep our charm we should not go bigger)

And Houston has had a few good 3-4 year runs in the last 3 decades. They are on the tail end of one of them right now.. Below are two links that shows the good and bad with our attendances...

http://espn.go.com/b...it-bowl-options

http://bleacherrepor...dance-woes-over

 

[jonatbaylor]

As Norm Hitzges said 13 years ago, "TCU is a sleeping giant", and almost nobody believed him.

Maybe it was because we were 1-10 in 1997 and we lost to new mexico and vanderbilt (I mean really, who loses to those teams?) and our only win was against a soulless just back from the death penalty SMU..

But please, go on.

 

[cdsfrog]

sarcasm right?

They spent 70 million last year in big 12 athletics 6th in the big 12. Thats a huge increase in half a decade.

 

[cdsfrog]

Maybe it was because we were 1-10 in 1997 and we lost to new mexico and vanderbilt (I mean really, who loses to those teams?) and our only win was against a soulless just back from the death penalty SMU..

But please, go on.

After the 98 season and the bowl win against USC

 

[cdsfrog]

let the one who has never sinned throw the first stone

Wow dude, reading this statement makes me wonder if you even know our history and why we have faced the obstacles we have had to face the last 15 years.

You know that from 1942-1997, a 55 year stretch we won 1 bowl game, right? So it is not like these things can't change. You also know that our school and alumni base is small and we have been overlooked by bowls because of our lack of travel and attendance right? (and actually, this harks back to some points I was making on a totally diff post, but that we should look at some steady student enrollment increases over the next 10 years, getting us to at least 12-14k. To keep our charm we should not go bigger)

And Houston has had a few good 3-4 year runs in the last 3 decades. They are on the tail end of one of them right now.. Below are two links that shows the good and bad with our attendances...


bad attendance with 7k students is one thing. 35k undergrad, 300k alumni and 20k attendance is beyond pathetic

 

[gatorfrog]

New (non-internet) poll out that asked Floridians their favorite college football team. 1 and 2 are not surprising. The next school on the list? UCF, ahead of Miami and South Florida. I still don't think UCF is worth adding, but maybe we should see if the BE will kick USF out. :tongue:

http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_politics/2011/07/poll-says-fla-voters-are-anti-medicare-overhaul-gay-marriage-but-love-the-gators.html

 

[mtmedlin]

New (non-internet) poll out that asked Floridians their favorite college football team. 1 and 2 are not surprising. The next school on the list? UCF, ahead of Miami and South Florida. I still don't think UCF is worth adding, but maybe we should see if the BE will kick USF out. :tongue:

http://blogs.orlando...the-gators.html

So a poll in the ORLANDO SENTINAL, (a paper not distributed outside of the Orlando area) says that UCF is the third favorite. Not exactly shocking...actually yes it is, I would have guessed 4th after Miami.

 

[mtmedlin]

I think TCU/BYU/Navy/Air Force/Boise State and Utah would have been an awesome conference. Too many changes and musical chairs.

Boise state has to be irritated with their recent jump and other teams recent exits..

TCU, BYU, Air Force, Army, Navy and Villanova would work for me. Makes a sweet 14/18 conference with AF, Army, Navy as football only.

At that point I would hope that Houston, SMU, Tulsa and Utah St get the invite to the MWC. Temple, UMass, Louisiana Tech, Florida Atlantic and Bowling green. Each conference with 14.

 

[jonatbaylor]

They spent 70 million last year in big 12 athletics 6th in the big 12. Thats a huge increase in half a decade.

It's crazy how they can spend all that money and still suck in every sport except Basketball.

 

[Endless Purple]

Kansas has only had 3 winning seasons in the last 15.

The entire state of Kansas has less than half the population of the Houston metro area.