He claims to know people everywhere and just predicts everything; eventually he'll be right about something and cite that endlessly as proof.
I know nobody; I just read the things that are published by journalists. I think the Big XII and Pac 10 are in roughly equal positions right now, but I think the Big XII is trending up and the Pac trending down.
Here's what I think will happen:
No schools are leaving the Pac for the Big XII as long as Oregon and UW aren't going to the Big Ten soon, which they aren't. No defections are imminent; the Pac is not about to collapse.
The Pac will sign a media rights deal in the next month worth roughly equal money to the Big XII's. Their 'game of the week' will be on CBS, the rest will be on Amazon Prime and ESPN+, which Kliavkoff will sell as a forward-thinking move but which will make their games obscure for the immediate term future. The deal will be for five years because Oregon wants another run at begging their way into the Big Ten at the beginning of the next rights negotiation cycle.
The Pac will agree to let all programs keep most or all of the revenue generated by their post-season appearances, so when the 12-team playoff starts Oregon will either win the conference every year and keep all of that cash, permitting them to operate at a different level to their conference mates, or they won't actually win the conference and will get commensurately more desperate as each year goes by. I think Oregon under Lanning will dominate that league, get all the cash, and sow the seeds of some major future discord.
San Diego State and SMU will be invited to the a new Pac 12 by about June of this year, making SMU football more prestigious and the Pac less so by equal degrees.
By about 2030 the Big XII will have more TV viewers in football by far, a better playoff record, a larger number of conference members to appear in the playoff, and the general goodwill that comes from equal revenue sharing. The Pac will have numerous members fed up of being second-class citizens behind two programs that are only biding their time for a Big Ten invite anyway. At that point, and not before then, Utah and Arizona might take the Big XII's phone calls. Or the Big Ten might take Oregon's, which amounts to the same thing.
The Big XII should never take Oregon as anything but as absolutely equal member. We're just getting rid of rid of Texas and OU, we don't need more of that kind of nonsense from a program with even less historical reason to act like an entitled gorilla. Personally, I'd love to have the 'Four Corners' schools, but I'm just as happy to see the Pac 12 stabilize and last long-term. I like the 12-member league we're going to have as of 2024 and I don't think we need anything else.