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Big 12 in position to poach Pac 12 schools?

fanatical frog

fanatical frog

Full Member
Limey Frog said:
He claims to know people everywhere and just predicts everything; eventually he'll be right about something and cite that endlessly as proof.

I know nobody; I just read the things that are published by journalists. I think the Big XII and Pac 10 are in roughly equal positions right now, but I think the Big XII is trending up and the Pac trending down.

Here's what I think will happen:

No schools are leaving the Pac for the Big XII as long as Oregon and UW aren't going to the Big Ten soon, which they aren't. No defections are imminent; the Pac is not about to collapse.

The Pac will sign a media rights deal in the next month worth roughly equal money to the Big XII's. Their 'game of the week' will be on CBS, the rest will be on Amazon Prime and ESPN+, which Kliavkoff will sell as a forward-thinking move but which will make their games obscure for the immediate term future. The deal will be for five years because Oregon wants another run at begging their way into the Big Ten at the beginning of the next rights negotiation cycle.

The Pac will agree to let all programs keep most or all of the revenue generated by their post-season appearances, so when the 12-team playoff starts Oregon will either win the conference every year and keep all of that cash, permitting them to operate at a different level to their conference mates, or they won't actually win the conference and will get commensurately more desperate as each year goes by. I think Oregon under Lanning will dominate that league, get all the cash, and sow the seeds of some major future discord.

San Diego State and SMU will be invited to the a new Pac 12 by about June of this year, making SMU football more prestigious and the Pac less so by equal degrees.

By about 2030 the Big XII will have more TV viewers in football by far, a better playoff record, a larger number of conference members to appear in the playoff, and the general goodwill that comes from equal revenue sharing. The Pac will have numerous members fed up of being second-class citizens behind two programs that are only biding their time for a Big Ten invite anyway. At that point, and not before then, Utah and Arizona might take the Big XII's phone calls. Or the Big Ten might take Oregon's, which amounts to the same thing.

The Big XII should never take Oregon as anything but as absolutely equal member. We're just getting rid of rid of Texas and OU, we don't need more of that kind of nonsense from a program with even less historical reason to act like an entitled gorilla. Personally, I'd love to have the 'Four Corners' schools, but I'm just as happy to see the Pac 12 stabilize and last long-term. I like the 12-member league we're going to have as of 2024 and I don't think we need anything else.
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T

The Artist Formerly Known as PhormerPhrog

Full Member
fanatical frog said:
The PAC __ took Utah originally when BYU would have been a better choice. They passed on BYU because they didn't welcome Church affiliated schools at that time....desperation could change all that, doubtful, but who knows.

The PAC already has the Utah market why would they want BYU....as many on this board have said relative to the B12 adding Utah...we already have the Utah market so the Utes add no incremental value.

When the PAC__ took Colorado their first choice was Kansas.....in the unlikely event the PAC 12 decides to raid the B12 you'd think Kansas might be their first choice rather than the Church affiliated school. But why would either Kansas or BYU change conferences for less money.

Finally, the PAC has no allure without UCLA and USC. They are dead man walking and refuse to accept that reality. Why would any school join dead man walking....for less money.

Harsh, but realistic.
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Don't bogart the good stuff man.
 
C

Creeperfrog

Active Member
I don't care ab wash or ou. I want the four corners and then watch dub and duck struggle either through independence or mwc. If only that could have happened to OUT would make me happier
 
This Ain't Chopped Liver

This Ain't Chopped Liver

Active Member
Gary's Shirtless Revenge said:
Ehh, I’m pretty bullish on Houston’s potential. They’ve got so many things working for them. UCF was clearly the reach, but you can’t argue with the value and potential of the market which could drive long term performance. The strategy at the time was, “If we can’t compete in value, we’ll out compete them on the field/court.” Hard to do that with no presence in the #2 football state.
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Maybe the Big XII panicked a bit when they had plenty of time to wait and see before Texas and Oklahoma had an exit date. I remember GSR stating there was no reason to hurry with immediate additions soon after Texas and Oklahoma stunned with their announcement.

The two schools that made sense to add early were UCF and maybe BYU. UCF contributes Florida and growth. It is a young monstrous university with a growing alumni base on the upswing of enthusiasm and a beautiful campus on the edge of Orlando. The future will only be brighter for UCF. And USF, a rival, could be added sometime down the road to complete the Florida twosome.

BYU made viewership sense so maybe it helped for an early media rights deal, but it does not look as attractive if the Big XII gets a chance to add Utah and Colorado, and other Pac 12 schools.

I never understood Cincinnati—they are what they are. Their enthusiasm is not going to grow significantly and their small stadium reflects that. What enthusiasm they do have is dependent on coaching hires and you sure don’t want to bank on that. They are not even a rival of West Virginia. I read that some at WV did not want them because of recruiting competition.

UH is an unknown as to how that evolves, with an architecturally horrid campus in a not so attractive part of town, ha. I think as an undergrad you attended for convenience and cost. Don’t dismiss any of that as reason for alumni apathy. But it is no doubt moving on up academically so there is hope that alumni and city pride will grow some roots, but the unappealing architecture will be around awhile, sheesh.
 
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E

eh0215

Active Member
SMU's going to be more valuable that we like to give them credit for. Top 5 media market location in CST that's good for the most TV windows. Hotels and airports are easy access, everyone has a solid local alumni base in DFW. Stadium is smallish, but easily expandable. I'd argue they're among the most valuable G5 options left on the table.

I don't think their alumni base is all that important. TV is more interested in if they can host Oregon and Arizona State at noon on a Saturday a couple times a year. I'd think that's also what the Pac should be caring about. Getting more exposure in more timeslots. Easiest city in America for them to do that in would be Dallas.
 
Limey Frog

Limey Frog

Full Member
peacock said:
good discussion here.....talk Pac-12/Big 12 at 41:00 mark.......dude makes an important point....switching conferences is much bigger then athletics..
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These guys are a little snarky, but they're right. Schools will leave the Pac when the Big XII is an upgrade from a conference that is actually disintegrating -- i.e., losing Oregon and Washington and about to be the Mountain West with better grad schools -- not before.

The Big XII's happiness does not depend upon the Pac dying; this is not a zero sum game. For a while it looked like it might be, but now it isn't. As I've written before in a different context, I really hope they do invite SMU. I think that would be a significant prestige upgrade for our crosstown rivalry, which I think is a net gain for TCU.
 
Eight

Eight

Member
Limey Frog said:
These guys are a little snarky, but they're right. Schools will leave the Pac when the Big XII is an upgrade from a conference that is actually disintegrating -- i.e., losing Oregon and Washington and about to be the Mountain West with better grad schools -- not before.

The Big XII's happiness does not depend upon the Pac dying; this is not a zero sum game. For a while it looked like it might be, but now it isn't. As I've written before in a different context, I really hope they do invite SMU. I think that would be a significant prestige upgrade for our crosstown rivalry, which I think is a net gain for TCU.
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screw smu and the skillet game, truthfully it hasn't had anything beyond a few area code significance since, what, the 50's?
 
Limey Frog

Limey Frog

Full Member
Eight said:
screw smu and the skillet game, truthfully it hasn't had anything beyond a few area code significance since, what, the 50's?
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We'll just have to disagree on that one. I hope it continues. We'll see what happens, I guess. I know I have absolutely no say in the matter.
 
This Ain't Chopped Liver

This Ain't Chopped Liver

Active Member
peacock said:
good discussion here.....talk Pac-12/Big 12 at 41:00 mark.......dude makes an important point....switching conferences is much bigger then athletics..
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A good informative discussion. Thanks for posting, peacock. No school is leaving the PAC for the Big XII unless the Big 10 guts it further.

PAC likely adds San Diego State, and SMU probably next if they want a 12th team. Supposedly the PAC had winnowed it down to adding Houston and TCU the last time they were discussing expansion. The travel would be a bear for athletes and coaches, and an expense for SMU, but the academic prestige and athletics of the PAC would be a big win for the Mustangs.

I hope that the Big XII gets USF before the ACC decides they want them someday. I would have preferred adding USF over Cincinnati. USF has growth potential and we don’t want to leave UCF stranded.

They mention several times the Big XII having a $100M buyout for a school to leave the new Big XII, which is news to me and may be erroneous.
 
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hiphopfroggy

hiphopfroggy

Active Member
This Ain't Chopped Liver said:
A good informative discussion. Thanks for posting, peacock. Nobody is leaving the PAC for the Big XII unless the Big 10 guts it.

PAC is likely to add San Diego State, and SMU probably next. Supposedly the PAC had winnowed it down to adding Houston and TCU last time they were discussing expansion. The travel would be a bear and an expense for SMU but the academic prestige of the PAC 12 would be a big win for the Mustangs.

I hope that the Big XII gets USF before the ACC decides they want them someday. I would have preferred adding USF over Cincinatti.

They mention several times the Big XII having a $100M buyout for a school to leave the new Big XII, which is news to me and may be erroneous.
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USF?

No more G5's, it is in the contract. But I'd definitely have Tulane lined up before USF if it came down to that.
 
Limey Frog

Limey Frog

Full Member
This Ain't Chopped Liver said:
I hope that the Big XII gets USF before the ACC decides they want them someday. I would have preferred adding USF over Cincinnati.
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Hard disagree there. The Big XII has stabilized and we have a good group. We're past the point of needing to promote any other programs and hope they hold their end up with future growth. At this point we don't need to add anyone that isn't an obvious upgrade immediately -- i.e., relatively big name programs jumping from conferences that are disintegrating. There are programs I'd take from the Pac if they are raided again by the Big Ten; there are programs I'd take from the ACC if the same happens to them by the SEC. Otherwise, we're fine.
 

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