TCU Tennis

[Jared7]

It depends. If you're a Top 5 junior; the incentive is to go pro immediately - like Krueger, Jared Donaldson or Ryan Harrison (and many others). Cam's recent article, however, pushed the benefits of going to college. That's gonna change in 2019, however, because the ITF is restructuring everything at the lower levels of pro tennis. There's gonna be far fewer Futures tourneys, but with more money, and there's gonna be a new "transition tour" with no (or very little) money - the objectives being to reduce the # of worldwide "pros" from 14,000 to about 750 and to make it more likely that the Top 750 can actually make a living at pro tennis. The transition tour will allow players to earn points so as to qualify for the Futures tourneys. The new system will disincentivize players from going pro early because they'd have to fight through the transition tourneys making no money and will probably help the college game. It will also disincentivize older players who clog up the Futures tourneys trying to hang on despite fading games. It's in the process of being discussed and no one knows precisely how it's going to work, so it's a work in progress at present, but it's in the works. In the short run (for about year and a half), it might incentivize guys to go pro earlier (so as to make the Top 750 now), but in the long run, it seems likely to increase the demand for getting U.S. college scholarships all round the world.

Yes, see this prior post. In 2019, everything is going to change at the lower level of pro tennis and it will almost certainly help the college game. It won't have an effect on guys like Cam, Torp or Vukic, but it will almost certainly change the calculation for younger players. There will be more money for players in the Top 750, but little to none for those below that level. Some may still try to make it by competing in the "transition" tourneys and skip college, but I think the demand for U.S. college scholarships will increase around the world and more players will opt for college. Cam (currently ATP #238) made about $45000 last year, but Alex (currently ATP #920) only about $4000. Most players (i.e., those ranked from 750-14000) make little to no money and basically lose money hand over fist until they 'retire.' Now, only those in the Top 300 (or so) make enough to make a living - the objective is to have 750 make a living and everyone else nothing. The race will be to get into the Top 750 in the world. Lot's of players won't achieve that.

 

[Pharm Frog]

Yes, see this prior post. In 2019, everything is going to change at the lower level of pro tennis and it will almost certainly help the college game. It won't have an effect on guys like Cam, Torp or Vukic, but it will almost certainly change the calculation for younger players. There will be more money for players in the Top 750, but little to none for those below that level. Some may still try to make it by competing in the "transition" tourneys and skip college, but I think the demand for U.S. college scholarships will increase around the world and more players will opt for college. Cam made about $45000 last year, but Alex only about $4000. Most players (i.e., those ranked from 750-14000) make little to no money and basically lose money hand over fist until they 'retire.'

Very surprised that the threshold is up there in the mid-700s. I know that tennis is a lot more popular worldwide but I find that kind of impressive actually.

 

[Jared7]

Very surprised that the threshold is up there in the mid-700s. I know that tennis is a lot more popular worldwide but I find that kind of impressive actually.

Well, I obviously wasn't clear, so I edited that post. The current threshold is about ATP #300, or, depending on how "make a living" is defined, about ATP#200. The objective with the new post-2019 system, is to make the threshold about 750. Cam played pro tourneys for about 6-7 months and made about $46,000 - if you double that (or so) for a full year, that's about $80,000-$95,000ish. That's enough to make a go of it, although he won't exactly have a private jet, a full-time coach, a psychologist, a masseuse etc..., so he's almost certainly going to forego his senior year and turn pro after the NCAA's. Alex, though, also played 6-7 months as a pro and only earned about $4000, so if you double that, it's only about $8,000ish. That's really not enough with all the travel and expensive hotels and such. Cam advanced from ATP#771 to a career high of #232 after college play ended last June - he's made it. Alex needs to do something similar. And, because the new system doesn't take effect for a year and a half, Alex is almost certainly going to take the fall off (again) to try to make it to the Top 750 so that he's already there pre-2019. The new system will affect different players differently - it'll almost certainly help #669 ex-TCU player Nick Chappell - if he can stay in the Top 750, he'll probably make more money. But guys below 750 aren't going to be helped at all - and that includes current juniors and most of the college ranks.

And who knows if the new system will work as intended? They have to work it out with the sponsors, the tourneys themselves and the players. But that's what is in the works.

 

[jake102]

Very surprised that the threshold is up there in the mid-700s. I know that tennis is a lot more popular worldwide but I find that kind of impressive actually.

I would be shocked if "making a living" really becomes top 750. And "make a living" may not really be making a living. More like "scraping by and still being able to play".

I would argue that you need to be top 200 today to really be "making a living" after expenses.

 

[jake102]

Also, I think the new rules will make teams deeper, but will reduce the top end talent. Likely to see less Norrie, Torp, Rybakov types... guys who could be/are top 750 coming out of high school.

Probably depends on personal preference, but it is disappointing to me. It's nice to see some really high quality players at the college level

 

[Jared7]

Bobby Knight at collegetennistoday just responded to my e-mail about the #1 ranking in tomorrow's singles rankings and his projection is that TCU's Cameron Norrie will be the nation's new #1 ranked player tomorrow!! Cam took the fall off (it's a full-year ranking) and started the Spring unranked and will now be #1. And, TCU overall is expected to be at least in the Top 5, after being outside the Top 50 a mere two months ago. This is really rather stunning for both Cam and the team as a whole.

As for the new post-2019 system, I think it's quite possible that it may turn out to be just a lot of talk./hooey and that the casual fan really won't see much of a difference at all. But Pharm asked!

 

[Jared7]

Anyone going to drive up to Norman on Saturday if we make the finals?

By all means, go! But for those who can't, it'll be televised on Fox (I don't know which channel) and livestreamed on Flotennis (subscription required). I think it'll be livestreamed (for free) on the OU site's SoonerVision, but I'm not sure.

 

[tcumaniac]

By all means, go! But for those who can't, it'll be televised on Fox (I don't know which channel) and livestreamed on Flotennis (subscription required). I think it'll be livestreamed (for free) on the OU site's SoonerVision, but I'm not sure.

Would love to go. It's been a crazy spring. Haven't been able to make a match all season.

Don't think I can talk the wife or anyone else into going with me though. Would be a pretty lonely trip do do by myself.

Let's make the finals first though.

 

[ftwfrog]

So if we can win the BIG 12 tournament does that put us as a Top 4 seed for the NCAA ? And wasn't that a goal last year as we tried to avoid UVA or another nemesis?

 

[cdsfrog]

I would be shocked if "making a living" really becomes top 750. And "make a living" may not really be making a living. More like "scraping by and still being able to play".

I would argue that you need to be top 200 today to really be "making a living" after expenses.

Sounds about right. Say someone does pretty well and makes its $150k ranked inside the top 200. Some of that probably comes from sponsorships, not all from tourneys.

You have to subtract 40k for travel, then taxes and everything else you are looking at under 75k net.

 

[jake102]

New rankings came out today.

TCU moves all the way up to #4! This is perfect place to be, matched with #1 Wake Forest in the semis. Hopefully neither team moves at all.

Also, Norrie is now #1 in the nation!!

Rybakov jumps up to #20 from #27. Nunez at #85

 

[Pharm Frog]

The Big12 has announced the seedings and times for the Big12 tourney. OU will indeed by playing Texas and it's also Baylor v. Tech on Thursday. TCU's next match will be at 10:00 a.m. on Friday against the winner of the Sooners and the Longhorns and if we advance to the finals, it'll be at 11:00 a.m. on Saturday. On our side of the bracket, despite the fact that Texas is ranked higher, I'm more afraid of OU because: (1) they're playing at home; (2) they're hotter, having won their last two Big12 matches; (3) Andrew Harris is back at #1 singles, he beat Julian Cash fairly easily yesterday, and his return transforms their line-up; and (4) Ito is injured for Texas and might not play. Unlike our previous match in Norman, all matches are at least scheduled to be outdoors, which probably favors the Frogs.

Friday is looking pretty good weather-wise for Norman. Saturday not so much.

 

[Jared7]

New rankings came out today.

TCU moves all the way up to #4! This is perfect place to be, matched with #1 Wake Forest in the semis. Hopefully neither team moves at all.

Also, Norrie is now #1 in the nation!!

Rybakov jumps up to #20 from #27. Nunez at #85

Here's the new rankings:

1. Wake Forest (ACC regular season champs)
2. Ohio State (Big10 regular season champs)
3. Virginia
4. TCU (Big12 regular season champs)
5. UCLA (Pac12 regular season champs)
6. Baylor
7. USC
8. Oklahoma State
9. Texas
10. Cal
11. A&M (SEC co-champs)
12. North Carolina
13. Georgia (SEC co-champs )
15. Oklahoma (back in a position to be the 5th Big 12 regionals host)
17. Stanford
22. USF (AAC champs)
23. Northwestern
24. Columbia (Ivy League champs)
25. Illinois
30. UCF
37. SMU
40. UC-Santa Barbara
41. Tech
42. Rice (C-USA champs)
45. Utah State (MWC champs)

In singles, it's (1) Cameron Norrie (TCU); (2) Mikael Torpegaard (Ohio State); (3) Nuno Borges (Mississippi State); (4) Petros Chrysochos (Wake); and (5) Aleks Vukic (Illinois). Rybakov at #20; Nunez at #85th.

In doubles, Stalder/Lopez at 33rd; Norrie/Lopez at 39th; Johnson/Stalder at 42nd; Nunez/Rybakov at 49th.

The TCU women are 25th, a likely #2 seed.

 

[Jared7]

So if we can win the BIG 12 tournament does that put us as a Top 4 seed for the NCAA ? And wasn't that a goal last year as we tried to avoid UVA or another nemesis?

Next week's ITA rankings are the ones that count for NCAA seeding. There might be a little change depending on how the conference tourneys go, but probably not much. Like Jake, I want to avoid Ohio State, so a #4 or #5 seed is good for that, but really, I'd like to see all other top seeds get upset in the first or second rounds. And I'm sure Roditi is in a "let's take one match at a time" kind of frame.

 

[jake102]

For the tournament championships, I think we should be rooting for aTm and California to do well so that TCU avoids them. We should be rooting against Baylor as to not overtake us and push us to #6 seed.

If all works out well, we will be either the #4 or #5 seed matched against UNC, Georgia, Florida or OU in Round of 16, followed by UCLA in quarters, Wake in semis, and Virginia/Ohio State in finals. This would be a perfect draw for TCU.

in general I think we want to avoid Ohio State, California and aTm.

 

[Jared7]

For the tournament championships, I think we should be rooting for aTm and California to do well so that TCU avoids them. We should be rooting against Baylor as to not overtake us and push us to #6 seed.

If all works out well, we will be either the #4 or #5 seed matched against UNC, Georgia, Florida or OU in Round of 16, followed by UCLA in quarters, Wake in semis, and Virginia/Ohio State in finals. This would be a perfect draw for TCU.

in general I think we want to avoid Ohio State, California and aTm.

I'd add Northwestern, Columbia and Utah State to the list of teams we want to avoid. And Cal is definitely on that list. Also Georgia, because the Finals are in Athens. And I really don't want to face OU in the Big12 tourney, so I think we should be for Texas in the opening round. And, well, I'm for Tech to advance all the way in the other bracket because they would be far easier to beat than the Cowboys or Bears, if we make the finals.

 

[MTfrog5]

For the tournament championships, I think we should be rooting for aTm and California to do well so that TCU avoids them. We should be rooting against Baylor as to not overtake us and push us to #6 seed.

If all works out well, we will be either the #4 or #5 seed matched against UNC, Georgia, Florida or OU in Round of 16, followed by UCLA in quarters, Wake in semis, and Virginia/Ohio State in finals. This would be a perfect draw for TCU.

in general I think we want to avoid Ohio State, California and aTm.

Don't think you have to tell us twice to root against Baylor

 

[ftwfrog]

For the tournament championships, I think we should be rooting for aTm and California to do well so that TCU avoids them. We should be rooting against Baylor as to not overtake us and push us to #6 seed.

If all works out well, we will be either the #4 or #5 seed matched against UNC, Georgia, Florida or OU in Round of 16, followed by UCLA in quarters, Wake in semis, and Virginia/Ohio State in finals. This would be a perfect draw for TCU.

in general I think we want to avoid Ohio State, California and aTm.

Cool. I think I'm going to wait for the draw to come out and get excited/nervous based on your guy's reactions.

Keep us posted.

 

[Jared7]

One of the reasons that the Frogs are such good players is that they're intelligent - on the Big12's All-Academic team, 6 tennis Frogs made the list. On the first team are Reese Stalder, Alex Rybakov and Hudson Blake and on the 2nd team are Trey Daniel, Guillermo Nunez and Cameron Norrie.

And, Cameron Norrie was named the Big12 Player of the Week for the 3rd time this season and the 6th time all-time. He's undefeated in Big12 play this year - all against ranked singles opponents. Just this past week, he beat UT's Christian Sigsgaard and Baylor's Juan Benitez. As the #1 ranked player in the nation, he's virtually a lock to be the Big12's Player of the Year as well as to attain All-American status for the 3rd consecutive year, which will be announced later. And, his February article was re-released today, focusing on his statement that the reason he came back to TCU this season was because he wanted "a chance to win it all." Sadly, he also heavily implied that this is his last year at TCU. So, the last chance to see him play at TCU will be in two weeks when we (expectedly) host an NCAA regional. But first, he's got matches against either OU's Andrew Harris or UT's Sigsgaard in the semis, and, according to the seeds, OSU's Julian Cash in the finals in Norman.

 

[tcuseagull]

Jared, do you have any updates on our tennis recruiting? Are we bringing in any future Norrie's or Rybakov's to help us remain competitive at the highest level?