We could finish 4th in MWC football....

[geefrogs]

We all know the obvious. Replacing starters at QB, WR, OL, DL, S is not going to be easy. What people may not be paying attention to is that the other major players in the MWC are going to be bringing back key players next year and the schedule sets up nicely for them.

San Diego State coming off a bowl victory, will have a senior QB and returning the freshman of the year at running back. Rocky Long will be head coach so you know the defense will be somewhat formidable AND.....they get us at home. SDSU historically hasnt been much of a home-field advantage, but that could change in 2011 if they are able to build off the momentum of 2010.

Air Force is also returning a senior QB and a stout defense as usual and they get us at home also. Going to the Springs has never been an easy trip for the Frogs and I think 2011 will just as difficult. I believe Troy Calhoun is the best coach in the MWC outside of Fort Worth (even better than Whittingham from Utah and Bronco at BYU).

Boise is Boise. We know that Coach Petersen will have his kids ready to play. Again, another road game for the Frogs.


So....maybe its the offseason and I have too much time on my hands to think about these things but I think our last year in the MWC is going to be the most competitive amongst the top-tier teams. We could finish anywhere from champs to fourth place. What does 4th place get anyway? New Mexico Bowl? yuck.

If we win the conference next year; it might be CGP's best coaching job yet.

 

[NubomTurk]

With Butch and Sundance as senior LB's? You worry too much.
I'm worried about losing the rooster, but C-Pac is going to have competition at QB.
I think we make run at the title and it all comes down to the game on the smurf turf at the end of the season.

In LHCGP we trust.

 

[West Coast Johnny]

It wouldn't surprise me if we were 4th considering the seniors we lost. It also wouldn't surprise me if we went 11-1 with the only loss @ Boise. I'll be very surprised if we are 12-0 for the third staight year, but even that isn't an imposibility.

 

[Pharm Frog]

I suppose that your hypothetical is possible (as is finishing an undefeated first and a winless last) but I think we need to look into the possibility that SDSU, AFA, and BSU will by necessity of scheduling have to face each other. So, if we do indeed fall at SDSU, at AFA, and at BSU, we most likely would be third or fourth given the in-conference win-loss records of the above. That being said, I just don't see us losing all three games.....but I grant that the possibility does exist. I think you are correct....gonna be tougher this year than last and 1st to 4th is a defensible range... I still think 1st or 2nd is much more likely....

If I were BSU, I would be REALLY worried about facing AFA no matter where they play them. It's not so much the triple-option which BSU has faced before (even Nevada's pistol is a variant)... It's the unique and devastating and borderline unethical interior and edge blocking schemes that AF deploys. Heck....AF is also blue so they may feel right at home on the turf in Boise.

I know that we have struggled up in the Springs but I just don't see that QB beating us unless we give them short fields with turnovers. The kid from SDSU is certainly a strong runner, but I don't see him being any more potent than Wisconsin's trio of RBs and they couldn't get to 20 points against us....the over-the-top passing game does concern me a bit. BSU is still a question mark in my mind... I think we'll have our up's and down's breaking in a new slate of key positions but I'm not ready to join the 4th place in the MWC....at least not yet.

 

[Screaming Flea]

We'll know more after spring training. Then you have some summer months to acquire some maturity. Competition will be at a higher level this year and that will help immensely.

Remember GP is one heck of a CEO!!

 

[LVfrog]

Count this Frog as being very unhappy if this does occur. AF is good, SDSU will be potent and Boise is Boise but, for the life of me, I can't see us losing all three of these games. I have too much confidence in the staff to think we'll fall that far and I believe this team will be better than anyone on here thinks.

I may be wearing purple shades but I'm confident we'll be fine.

 

[mrhornedfrog]

No way!!! We will be fine.

 

[frogs9497]

Fair or not, expectations are such now that 4th place would be unacceptable to supporters, and unacceptable to CGP.

Ain't gonna happen.

 

[ifrog]

I still say we go undefeated next year again. The schedule us not that strong and the bar has been set. We continue to reload every year. Have faith

 

[michaelperrytcu]

Boise is Boise???? Well, TCU is TCU!! We reload, too and last I remember we we've made back to back BCS games which is more than Boise can say. I'm sick of the the downers on this board- GO FROGS!!!

 

[geefrogs]

Boise is Boise???? Well, TCU is TCU!! We reload, too and last I remember we we've made back to back BCS games which is more than Boise can say. I'm sick of the the downers on this board- GO FROGS!!!

not being a downer. Im just throwing out a scenario. Its the offseason.....gotta talk about something!

 

[AEAfrog]

I think SDSU takes a step back next year. They keep Hillman and Lindley, but they lose their top two receivers that accounted for over 2500 yards. Add in growing pains for adjusting to Rocky Long as head coach and a new OC, and there are bound to be some difficulties for that team. I think they still go bowling, but they fit more as a #4 behind some combination of TCU, Boise, and Air Force.

 

[Stiff Arm Frog]

SMU, BYU, and (Gosh I hope not) Baylor, are also all possible losses. People have made light of our schedule since it came out, but LHCGP is the first one to say, don't dismiss anyone. You still have to play the games.

I don't think we'll finish 4th in the conference, but I'm not going to jinx it by predicting another undefeated season next year, either. My prediction is we lose two or three games, one of them is probably to Boise, the others to SDSU and possibly SMU. All three of those teams thought they had us last year and will make us their number one target next year.

Or maybe we should just go undefeated and win the national championship. Go Frogs!

 

[OmniscienceFrog]

My prediction is we lose two or three games, one of them is probably to Boise, the others to SDSU and possibly SMU. All three of those teams thought they had us last year and will make us their number one target next year.

SMU is a very very remote possibility. In Dallas they might be a threat next year, but in Ft. Worth, no. Frogs haven't lost at home since 2007 and SMU won't be the team that ultimately snaps that winning streak.

 

[neutral observer]

I see us losing one game, Boise State. They have the advantages of home field, senior QB (who will pass Dalton in career victories), and a more experienced, returning squad. I do see us struggling again at Air Force, but other than that, we should finish the regular season with only one loss. We will not return to the BCS this season as Boise will replace us. Next season, we should rule the Big East and return to a BCS bowl game.

 

[sous vide]

Count this Frog as being very unhappy if this does occur. AF is good, SDSU will be potent and Boise is Boise but, for the life of me, I can't see us losing all three of these games. I have too much confidence in the staff to think we'll fall that far and I believe this team will be better than anyone on here thinks.

I may be wearing purple shades but I'm confident we'll be fine.

Lose 3 in conference? Probably not. Lose 1 or 2? Pretty likely. Lose 0? Doubt it.

Sometimes the "unacceptable" happens. Next year is a potential year for that except that the sched really is terrible outside of about 4 games.

 

[cdsfrog]

1) SDSU: lost best HC ever, long is good but nowhere near the coach that hoke was. Still got lindley and on the road. I think what happened last year will better prepare tcu for this year.

2) Airforce: We did well last year. Not tooworried, on the road will be harder but TCU is the most prepared team defensively against their option scheme. If we come in too cocky we would could lose this game. It has happened before.

3) BYU: Over hyped, lost to Utah state last year and we utterly destroyed them

4) Baylor: See BYU

5) Boise: Loses a coach and their best 2 WRs of all time, and best wr/rb combo. BUT they have Kellen Moore and since it was moved to the smurf turf, TCU loses

 

[Cougar/Frog]

Count me as one that very much doubts a 4th place finish for the Frogs.

Of course, 12-0 is much more likely than 8-4 or 7-5. 11-1 or 10-2 is most likely.

Boise returns its QB, but loses its receivers, and leaders and defense. There is a very strong reason that Boise pushed the MWC to move the game to Idaho. This is a 50/50 game.

AFA is always tough, especially in Colorado. If the game is early in the season, AFA is usually far stronger (as seen by last season --- destroyed BYU, should have beaten Oklahoma, etc.). If the game is late, the weather will add an additional problem to the altitude. 75% of a TCU win.

SDSU --- lost coach, lost superstar receivers, lost a number of O-line. Long's defense will be more than tough, with a 3rd year into his system. Still has QB and still has RB. 65% of TCU win.

BYU -- while BYU was a joke for the 1st half of last season, but the BYU offense was back on track at the end of the season and the defense was already back on track when the Frogs played BYU last year. 60% chance of a TCU win.

SMU-- while Ponies improve, there are far from TCU's class. 80% chance of TCU win.

Baylor -- like the Ponies, there is a very strong difference between TCU and its local rivals. 75% chance of a TCU win.

 

[froginaustin]

Captain Obvious speaking:

In the unlikely event that we come in 4th in the conference in 2011, thank God for the New Mexico (or whatever it is called) Bowl.

Appearing in such a bowl game would give the staff all those extra practices to work with relatively inexperienced skill players and o-linemen, and could really make a difference in 2012.

 

[sous vide]

Count me as one that very much doubts a 4th place finish for the Frogs.

Of course, 12-0 is much more likely than 8-4 or 7-5. 11-1 or 10-2 is most likely....

Odds given your figures (assuming--correctly I hope--going undefeated through the rest of the slate):

12-0: .09
11-1: .27
10-2: .34
9-3: .21
8-4/7-5 (or worse): .09

Therefore, given your figures (not mine!), the odds of 12-0 and 8-4/7-5 or worse are almost exactly equal. 11-1 and 10-2 are most likely with 9-3 a real contender as well.