I don’t know what your point is but it’s a hell of a lot more likely that OU beats UT and doesn’t get in the playoff than it is that OU loses to UT and doesn’t get an at large NY6 bid.
I don’t necessarily agree. The thing you keep ignoring across threads is the legitimate possibility that if the Big 12 misses the Playoff, there may simply not be room in the NY6 due to contract games.
With Orange and Cotton tied up with Semifinals, Sugar and Rose with dedicated teams, only Peach and Fiesta have open slots. One of those goes to UCF.
Pretty viable scenario where 1-4 Bama Clemson Notre Dame Ohio State make the Playoff. Michigan Pac-12 champ, Georgia and UT fill the contract bowls. UCF to NY6. Then it’s all about how far an 11-2 OU falls.
And if there are any upsets in the other CCGs it could be a mess. A Georgia win would put UGA and Bama in the Playoff. A Pitt win probably knocks Clemson out, and Pitt gets an NY6 at-large to Fiesta or Peach because the Orange (ACC Champ contract) is occupied by CFO Semi. And of course Clemson would still get an NY6 at-large berth to the one Pitt isn’t in. Ohio State losing may just knock em to another NY6 bowl etc etc.
It seems safest to see OU beat a top 10ish Texas team (9 in AP) and stay over an Ohio State team that isn’t playing a good CCG opponent.
I do think we should all wait to see the new CFP rankings this week before making too many assumptions. Where the committee puts OU and tOSU will be somewhat telling.