TCU Golf 2022-2023

[Eight]

TCU men drop from 27th to 34th in the latest Golfstat rankings after winning the UNCW Seahawk Intercollegiate. How does that happen? Strength of field and margin of victory. With only 2 top-50 teams in the field, TCU was expected to win comfortably. When teams ranked in the 70s, 80s and 130s stayed within 10 shots of the Frogs, the models considered them to have underperformed.

And that shows the balance required in putting together a D1 golf schedule. You need enough weak-field events to ensure you finish over .500 to qualify for the NCAA tournament, but the risk of playing poorly in those events is very high.

Clemson, the other top-50 team, finished 7th in the event and dropped from 44th to 55th. The Tigers were 46-52 after finishing last in a 12-team field at Pinehurst in early March. They cleared .500 with a 4th-place finish the following week, and their finish in Wilmington puts them at 68-61 (but any wins against non-D1 teams don't count). They have one event before the ACC tournament--a bubble team both on record and ranking.

TCU women are ranked 35th this week.

question, does the difficulty of the course factor into any of the rankings?

curious as golf is one of the few sports where the area you compete changes and in some cases big differences

 

[JogginFrog]

question, does the difficulty of the course factor into any of the rankings?

curious as golf is one of the few sports where the area you compete changes and in some cases big differences

I suspect the primary input for the model is relative score--stroke differential to the other teams in the field, regardless of actual score or score relative to par.

But Golfstat lists a number of other metrics on its rankings page, and those may be contributors to their model as well. They include:

• relative winning percentage
• adjusted scoring average--the adjustment accounting in some way for course difficulty and conditions, probably by mean-centering on field scoring average relative to expected scores based on prior events. Golfstat doesn't issue rankings for the first couple months of each season, giving time to build a baseline.
• adjusted drop score--considering all players' scores, not just the counters
• relative winning percentage vs. top 25
• schedule strength
• event wins

In the end, I'd be surprised if much went into the algorithm beyond a regression on each team's scores relative to the fields they played against. As long as teams don't isolate themselves geographically or talent-wise--which NCAA rules mitigate against--that should generate a reliable ranking.

Edit: You can read all the Golfstat has to say about it at http://golfstat.com/coaches/HTH_explanation.htm. It is not described as a regression-based model. Sounds similar to the college hockey pairwise comparison.

 

[JogginFrog]

Good day for Frogs in Augusta. Macnab birdies eagles the last to post -1 (T7). Iqbal shoots +2 (T23), which would be on the right side of the cut. In prior years, the committee allowed only 30 players to play the final round at Augusta National, and they held a playoff to eliminate ties. Seemed stingy of the green jackets. This year, the top 30 and ties advance to round 3. Both will have a good shot to get to round 3 and Macnab is on the leaderboard.

 

[First Tee Frog]

Looks like we’ve got some men in the portal…

 

[JogginFrog]

Looks like we’ve got some men in the portal…

Guess I'm not surprised given the uncertainty. Do you read anything into it beyond guys keeping options open and allowing conversations with other programs in lieu of an announcement about the next head coach? Perhaps ADJD has indicated he plans to look beyond Coach Mörk? Or something starker?

 

[First Tee Frog]

Guess I'm not surprised given the uncertainty. Do you read anything into it beyond guys keeping options open and allowing conversations with other programs in lieu of an announcement about the next head coach? Perhaps ADJD has indicated he plans to look beyond Coach Mörk? Or something starker?

I have no insight that makes any sense

 

[JogginFrog]

Caitlyn Macnab closes birdie-birdie-eagle to shoot 70 and move to T4 at ANWA. Some video follows--the eagle closers from yesterday on 18 and today on 9. Play moves to Augusta National on Saturday, which Caitlyn said she found easier to score on last year than Champions Retreat. She and her TCU bag are likely to get a good bit of TV time (NBC, 11-2).

Despite Caitlyn's stellar play, this week is the Rose Zhang show. She set the course record yesterday; broke it today. Only 2 players are within 9 shots of the lead. She'd need a Normanesque collapse to not win, though strange things happen at Augusta National.

Sabrina Iqbal missed the cut by 3; so did a 2 of the past ANWA winners, along with the #2- and #3-ranked amateurs. Ex-Frog Jennie Park shot 69 to make the cut.

 

[JogginFrog]

Play in Augusta has resumed after a weather delay. Through 8 holes, Caitlyn is +1 for the day, -2 for the tournament (T5), but Rose Zhang has come back to the field a bit (now -9 with a 3-shot lead). Caitlyn with a tough start, doubling the first, but she birdied both front-nine par 5s. She's wearing TCU gear, black with a purple hat.

Edit: I've never really seen her play. She has one of the best swings out there. Controlled but athletic.

 

[JogginFrog]

Caitlyn bogeys both back-9 par 5s but improves on last year's 11th-place finish with a T9.

Zhang unwisely opted to go with her dad as caddie. He's been in her ear all day and she has burned a bunch of edges putting. She was caught on the 17th by UGa's Jenny Bae, who has her coach on the bag. They go to a playoff.

Zhang wins after Bae knocks her approach on the 2nd playoff hole over the green and into the trees. Caddie dad completes his performance by forgetting to hug his daughter. Augusta National officials breathe a sigh of relief that they don't have 3 straight years of a top amateur blowing a late lead to lose to a relative unknown. Zhang now has US Girls, US Am, NCAA and ANWA titles.

 

[JogginFrog]

While I was paying attention to Caitlyn Macnab, the TCU women were playing a tournament, getting three tours of Tom Doak's restoration of Perry Maxwell's Dornick Hills Country Club in Ardmore. Maxwell and Doak appeared to get the better of the TCU women, who were projected as the third-best team in the field but finished 9th, shooting +54 for 54 holes--averaging .25 over par for the weekend.

They'll be glad to have Macnab back for the upcoming Big 12 Match Play in Scottsdale, starting Friday.
Game story: https://gofrogs.com/news/2023/4/2/womens-golf-horned-frogs-finish-up-at-the-bruzzy.aspx

 

[JogginFrog]

The Fried Egg's handicapper lists Tom Hoge among his darkhorse Masters picks and pointed out that Tom leads the Tour in strokes-gained-approach. That's the stat that comes closest to answering, "Who's the best ball-striker on Tour?" It's early in the season, but the rest of the top 7 in that category are all elite strikers:

• Collin Morikawa
• Tony Finau
• Jon Rahm
• Max Homa
• Scottie Scheffler
• Rory McIlroy

Congrats to Tom for topping that list. Now, if the flatstick can cooperate...

 

[JogginFrog]

TCU men are in action today at the Wyoming Cowboy Classic at Whirlwind Golf Club outside of Phoenix (weather in Laramie still not quite conducive to golf--tomorrow's forecasted high is 22). The Frogs project as the second-best team in the 21-team field, so a chance to win 3 straight if things go well. However, Frimodt is still out, so Frogs are going again with the lineup of Laussot, Olesen, Giboudot, Beauchamp and Berzina. They play 36 today, 18 tomorrow. Late in round 1, the Frogs are in 8th place, but Giboudot is T5 at -4. Follow scoring here.

Edit: Frogs with a lot of work to do after posting +12 in the afternoon round today. They are in 14th place.

 

[ShreveFrog]

@JogginFrog - Dornick Hills is in my hometown. Have only played it a few times at class reunions. Parred The Wall Hole last time after hitting the green in three.

 

[JogginFrog]

@JogginFrog - Dornick Hills is in my hometown. Have only played it a few times at class reunions. Parred The Wall Hole last time after hitting the green in three.

@ShreveFrog is talking about the par-5 16th--this is the approach to the green:

The TCU women have played in "The Bruzzy" for many years, but I had no idea who Bruzzy Westheimer was (is) and his ties to Dornick Hills and Perry Maxwell (his great uncle). Worth a read: https://golfoklahoma.org/westheimer-first-off-as-dornick-hills-reopens-following-restoration/

 

[gohornedfrogs]

Caitlyn bogeys both back-9 par 5s but improves on last year's 11th-place finish with a T9.

Zhang unwisely opted to go with her dad as caddie. He's been in her ear all day and she has burned a bunch of edges putting. She was caught on the 17th by UGa's Jenny Bae, who has her coach on the bag. They go to a playoff.

Zhang wins after Bae knocks her approach on the 2nd playoff hole over the green and into the trees. Caddie dad completes his performance by forgetting to hug his daughter. Augusta National officials breathe a sigh of relief that they don't have 3 straight years of a top amateur blowing a late lead to lose to a relative unknown. Zhang now has US Girls, US Am, NCAA and ANWA titles.

I can't help but think Zhang runs away with that tournament if she would have had an Augusta caddie instead of her dad. Not necessarily for reading the greens, or yardages, or strategy...just to eliminate the distraction. That guy was a beating out there.

Anyway, great showing by McNab. She looks like she has all the tools to be successful at the next level. Good attitude, good demeanor, and her swing mechanics are as good or better than a lot of players who are making a good living out there. I'm sure she'd like to play #13 and #15 over again, but she'll carry that experience forward.

 

[JogginFrog]

Anyway, great showing by McNab. She looks like she has all the tools to be successful at the next level. Good attitude, good demeanor, and her swing mechanics are as good or better than a lot of players who are making a good living out there. I'm sure she'd like to play #13 and #15 over again, but she'll carry that experience forward.

And based on @First Tee Frog's observations, Caitlyn is a better person than a golfer. Good things ahead for her.

Caitlyn had an early start in golf, but I suspect she's also had very good support from the South African golf establishment, which is phenomenal in developing pros (RSA has less than 1% of the world's population but last year boasted 11% of the world's top 100 men's professionals.)

Was glad to see Mike Whan and the USGA finally get things moving on a U.S. golf development program this year.

 

[gohornedfrogs]

Hoge paired with Mickelson the first two rounds.

 

[JogginFrog]

Hoge paired with Mickelson the first two rounds.

I suspect those 2 would get along well. Although the Masters demands much better patron behavior than other events, Tom will still have to deal with a lot of phans moving while he's preparing to play.

I also think it would be frustrating to watch a leftie hit easy fades off those hook lies that make AN so challenging for right-handers.

 

[gohornedfrogs]

Was glad to see Mike Whan and the USGA finally get things moving on a U.S. golf development program this year.

I get the idea here, but this troubles me:

With a $3 million budget for its first year, the USNDP's stated mission is to "identify, train, develop, fund and support the nation's most promising junior players."

National programs like this often become fraught with politics, and marginalize late-bloomers. They will also be prohibitive to young multi-sport athletes. Who identifies these players? And how is support doled out? Lots of room for human error, and, quite frankly, for corruption by people with personal agendas. Any time you give people the power to "select" the chosen ones, corruption and politics inevitably follow (and I'm talking about general politics we've all encountered in youth sports, not Dems vs. Reps). This seems paradoxical in a purely merit-based sport like golf.

For now, I'm classifying this as one of those things that sounds great and feels great, but may actually create the opposite of what it intends to do.

 

[JogginFrog]

TCU men finish 11th in Arizona. Max Giboudot placed T12 individually.

Not sure how serious Frimodt's injury is; hope he's back soon.