Houston Chronicle: Texas, Oklahoma reach out to SEC about joining conference

[Gary's Shirtless Revenge]

OK, maybe Dennis isn’t so bad… two key things I saw he included tonight in his update for y’all to pay attention to:

[URL]https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-12-believes-american-is-attempting-to-grab-eight-remaining-members-with-texas-oklahoma-leaving-for-sec/

1. Bowlsby recently told the eight remaining Big 12 schools that his strategy is to fight for survival as long as they stay together.

2. As long the Big 12 remains viable, ESPN and Fox cannot reduce the conference's rights fees under the current contract.

One thing to add/remind you of: The key number here is 10. I can tell you the TV contract is very vague around member value changes, and is really about the supply of content (aka, members). Texas (and ESPN) have been leaking to some in the media that “ESPN has clauses that say if the quality of the product decreases they can lower their fees.” Incorrect. The QUANTITY is what really matters, the quality only comes into play if the league is egregious or flagrant in its supplying of said games/teams. Going from Texas to Houston wouldn’t qualify, to a judge at least. Not without 5 years of litigation that ESPN doesn’t have time for. 10 is what matters, for several reasons, TV contracts included.[/URL]

 

[stadiumfrog]

FOX would love it, but I don't think the big BIG schools would go for it. Not a cultural fit.

When it comes to University Presidents in this whole thing, don't forget how much THEY think about "culture" and "fit," and how each conference handled the pandemic plays into decisions of who to affiliate yourself with. This is, by far, the biggest disadvantage to the PAC. The BIG learned a tough lesson in 2020 they don't want to repeat.

I agree with you on this. Not sure "woke" UT fits SEC culture.

 

[Flying T]

From OrangePower

 

[Real Frog]

OK, maybe Dennis isn’t so bad… two key things I saw he included tonight in his update for y’all to pay attention to:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...-members-with-texas-oklahoma-leaving-for-sec/

1. Bowlsby recently told the eight remaining Big 12 schools that his strategy is to fight for survival as long as they stay together.

2. As long the Big 12 remains viable, ESPN and Fox cannot reduce the conference's rights fees under the current contract.

One thing to add/remind you of: The key number here is 10. I can tell you the TV contract is very vague around member value changes, and is really about the supply of content (aka, members). Texas (and ESPN) have been leaking to some in the media that “ESPN has clauses that say if the quality of the product decreases they can lower their fees.” Incorrect. The QUANTITY is what really matters, the quality only comes into play if the league is egregious or flagrant in its supplying of said games/teams. Going from Texas to Houston wouldn’t qualify, to a judge at least. Not without 5 years of litigation that ESPN doesn’t have time for. 10 is what matters, for several reasons, TV contracts included.

 

[Hemingway]

From OrangePowerView attachment 9296

And OSU isn’t going out west without Texas schools for recruiting purposes. Per, Gundy they need to play 3-4 games a year in TX. Also, PAC and Fox want the central time zone. It’s not necessarily the teams in time zones but having the USCs and Oregons play in the central time. Hard to explain if you don’t live on the east coast , but when you live in the east you just never watch anything on West coast time. It’s to late, you never see the end of the game. You will watch central time games though.

I doubt ESPN wants FOX to have that. It aint over yet folks, we’ll probably will be a package with Tech and OSU somehow. We are good major conference mates in a top 5 market with a major international airport, real hotel accommodations, and a ton of rich corporate sponsors in the DFW area. We have great relationships with both KU, Tech, and OSU. We four together are stronger together and I believe that all administrations here and PAC/Fox know this.

I haven’t mentioned Baylor because I have no idea between the scandals , religious administration, and overall tendency to threaten conference mates/foes with legal action will be perceived.

 

[DeuceBoogieNights]

Okie State thinks they are a bigger fish than what they are. Solid university but stillwater sucks, it's in the middle of nowhere, and nobody cares about the Oklahoma TV markets.

 

[Jared7]

I haven't opined much on this conference realignment brouhaha because I've been more interested in Cam Norrie winning his first ATP title and climbing into the top ranks of tennis players worldwide, but I think it's time for a little reality check for the lying backstabbing UT slimeballs and their fellow conspirators at OU, the SEC and ESPN. Let's look at how money is actually paid out by conferences - each June, the Big 12 pays out $35-40 million to each member school; representing the media deals, the Sugar Bowl, the NCAA hoops credits the CCG and some other stuff. Under existing contracts, that's supposed to last for 4 more years. Normally, UT and OU receive their share of that. I'm going to take a wild guess and say that, unless and until they stop their malicious actions in trying to destroy the Big 12 and there is a settlement, UT and OU aren't going to see one red cent of that expected money. That is, they aren't going to receive $40 million in June 22, they aren't going to receive $40 million in June 23; they aren't going to receive $40 million in June 24 and they aren't going to receive $40 million in June 25. That's about $160 million per school; totaling about $320 million.

Why? Because the other Big 12 schools are merely enforcing their rights under the existing GOR and ensuring that they will be receiving their expected $40 million each for four years; totaling about $160 million per school and about 1.28 billion overall. Maybe they'll get some of that eventually, but not unless and until they stop behaving the way they have been for the past week or so; chortling at the "Little 8" and devaluing every single remaining school incessantly across all their platforms and from all their talking heads.

Moreover, the idea that there are going to be Big 12 championship events in Austin is over. No women's golf tourneys; no tennis championships; nothing. And no more accommodations for the LHN (like Tech and ISU have done) in which they get to broadcast events at non-Austin venues. And no more special media credentials at Big 12 Media Days where they get prime access to coaches and players. And no more votes on anything; like COVID policy, expansion, horns down taunting calls, media renegotiation; officials assignments; rules changes; tiebreaker rules for championships. Nothing. Unless and until there is a settlement.

If ESPN attempts to devalue our existing contracts, it's coming out of UT's hide. $160 million over 4 years will hit them right where they'll hurt. Bite it Longhorns!

 

[Planks]

Curious as to your extremely pessimistic math since there are 65 Power 5 teams and one of them is Baylor. I see our worst possible position as T-63 with K-State.

To clarify I don’t think it has to be exactly an even 64 schools. It could be 56, 58, 60, 62, or 64. The point being, I don’t think TCU is going to receive an invitation to any of the current SEC, ACC, BIG, or Pac 12.

And I do agree with you that the three P5 schools at the bottom of the pecking order will probably be TCU, KSU, and Baylor in some order, likely Baylor at the very bottom.

 

[jake102]

- Nobody is bolting to the AAC until they absolutely have to. Get real.

- Of course they’ve all talked, and of course ESPN is putting $$ on the table.

- Who squealed? Literally everybody. Again, the best worst path is unity and reconstitution… everybody is bought in on that unless the ACC/BIG/PAC disrupt things.

Yeah - let’s not let these basic facts change and no need to keep discussing these ludicrous ideas.

The AAC desperately wants the Remaining 8, while the Remaining 8 see AAC as last resort. Until one Remaining 8 school leaves, there is a 0% chance that anybody goes to the AAC.

 

[Bruce Berry]

- Nobody is bolting to the AAC until they absolutely have to. Get real.

- Of course they’ve all talked, and of course ESPN is putting $$ on the table.

- Who squealed? Literally everybody. Again, the best worst path is unity and reconstitution… everybody is bought in on that unless the ACC/BIG/PAC disrupt things.

You should be the only person posting on this thread going forward.

I have no idea if you know what you're talking about but you sound like you do. At this point that's good enough for me.

 

[Paul in uhh]

View attachment 9295

If true, good for Bob for holding feet to the fire to get his programs maximum leverage

 

[Gary's Shirtless Revenge]

I agree with you on this. Not sure "woke" UT fits SEC culture.

There’s lots of “woke” as you’d define it all throughout SEC higher ED.

 

[HG73]

I haven't opined much on this conference realignment brouhaha because I've been more interested in Cam Norrie winning his first ATP title and climbing into the top ranks of tennis players worldwide, but I think it's time for a little reality check for the lying backstabbing UT slimeballs and their fellow conspirators at OU, the SEC and ESPN. Let's look at how money is actually paid out by conferences - each June, the Big 12 pays out $35-40 million to each member school; representing the media deals, the Sugar Bowl, the NCAA hoops credits the CCG and some other stuff. Under existing contracts, that's supposed to last for 4 more years. Normally, UT and OU receive their share of that. I'm going to take a wild guess and say that, unless and until they stop their malicious actions in trying to destroy the Big 12 and there is a settlement, UT and OU aren't going to see one red cent of that expected money. That is, they aren't going to receive $40 million in June 22, they aren't going to receive $40 million in June 23; they aren't going to receive $40 million in June 24 and they aren't going to receive $40 million in June 25. That's about $160 million per school; totaling about $320 million.

Why? Because the other Big 12 schools are merely enforcing their rights under the existing GOR and ensuring that they will be receiving their expected $40 million each for four years; totaling about $160 million per school and about 1.28 billion overall. Maybe they'll get some of that eventually, but not unless and until they stop behaving the way they have been for the past week or so; chortling at the "Little 8" and devaluing every single remaining school incessantly across all their platforms and from all their talking heads.

Moreover, the idea that there are going to be Big 12 championship events in Austin is over. No women's golf tourneys; no tennis championships; nothing. And no more accommodations for the LHN (like Tech and ISU have done) in which they get to broadcast events at non-Austin venues. And no more special media credentials at Big 12 Media Days where they get prime access to coaches and players. And no more votes on anything; like COVID policy, expansion, horns down taunting calls, media renegotiation; officials assignments; rules changes; tiebreaker rules for championships. Nothing. Unless and until there is a settlement.

If ESPN attempts to devalue our existing contracts, it's coming out of UT's hide. $160 million over 4 years will hit them right where they'll hurt. Bite it Longhorns!

TRUE DAT! ^^^^^^^^^^^^^

 

[LVH]

People in this thread are still hanging onto the Pac 12 delusion...

 

[Palliative Care]

I don't know but the BIG PAC-12 has a nice ring to it. Anyway follow the money and we will see how this all turns out.

 

[Paul in uhh]

From OrangePowerView attachment 9296

Paul in Uhh likes this.

 

[Wexahu]

Yeah - let’s not let these basic facts change and no need to keep discussing these ludicrous ideas.

The AAC desperately wants the Remaining 8, while the Remaining 8 see AAC as last resort. Until one Remaining 8 school leaves, there is a 0% chance that anybody goes to the AAC.

I don't know what's wrong with an 8-team conference. It's always been more teams = better, but I'm not sure why exactly. It's who those teams are that matters, right? If it was Iowa State and Kansas State that had left instead of OU and UT would the conference really have been worse if they would have then just stuck with 8? A 16-team conference is basically two 8-team leagues anyway. It's not like UT is ever going to play South Carolina anyway.

Let's say somewhere down the road UT, OU, Arkansas, A&M, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State and Auburn decide to create their own league, and call it the Great South or whatever. Would that not be a hugely valuable league, in almost every way?

 

[Moose Stuff]

From OrangePowerView attachment 9296

I agree 100% with this. There is no scenario where OK St joins the AAC. If OK St can’t find a landing spot in another P5 league then it’s very likely that nobody else in the league is leaving either. At that point the Big 12 just raids the AAC (or whoever) and continues to exist.

 

[FBallFan123]

Not all new information, but the latest from Thamel…
https://mobile.twitter.com/PeteThamel/status/1420735249361866763



-ESPN owes the Big 12 an estimated $500 million for the rest of the league’s contract, which runs through 2025.

-There’s two important takeaways from Bowlsby calling ESPN out, aside from the jarring act of him doing it so publicly. The first is that it was a distinct way to get the message to Oklahoma and Texas that they’re going to get squeezed for every nickel they owe the Big 12 in the final four years of the contract.

-The second important takeaway was that by sending the letter, Bowlsby in many ways helped galvanize the league. He identified clear enemies in ESPN and the departing schools. Bowlsby only sent that letter with presidential support, which means this will end up bonding the eight schools remaining in the Big 12. And part of that is due to the distrust of Texas and Oklahoma.

-The difference between what the Big 12 is being paid now – more than $35 million in TV – and what it'll be paid without OU and Texas is an estimated $20 million. Dropping a stinkbomb on the doorstep in Bristol, Connecticut, is a negotiation ploy to assure you will no longer be negotiating. But Bowlsby is too smart to have done this without some type of TV partner fallback.

 

[jake102]

I don't know what's wrong with an 8-team conference. It's always been more teams = better, but I'm not sure why exactly. It's who those teams are that matters, right? If it was Iowa State and Kansas State that had left instead of OU and UT would the conference really have been worse if they would have then just stuck with 8? A 16-team conference is basically two 8-team leagues anyway. It's not like UT is ever going to play South Carolina anyway.

Let's say somewhere down the road UT, OU, Arkansas, A&M, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State and Auburn decide to create their own league, and call it the Great South or whatever. Would that not be a hugely valuable league, in almost every way?

Well other than the fact that we have to have 10 teams for the CFP.... pretty sure there's some requirement there.