• The KillerFrogs

Has anyone seen my specialty plates?

vicarfrog

Active Member
Good week last week for the Big 12s future TV rights… Big Ten has started finalizing football Tier 1 deals with Fox, CBS, and NBC. Amazon has made a superior financial bid vs NBC, but I don’t believe they are going to win out. ESPN has walked away and is sticking with their Tier 2 package of mens basketball which is very profitable for the mothership.

Why is this good news for the Big 12? Both Fox and ESPN are going to lose inventory if this framework holds, inventory they need to fill. They will have to choose between the PAC and the Big 12 but there is room for both. I still expect ESPN to lock this up or ESPN+Fox during their bidding window. The initial discussions are showing the Big 12 has more value than was feared (likely more than the ACC for instance).

Apple is engaged with the PAC again, and again is discussing a deal that includes the PAC 12 network… The league is concerned about the further hit it will take to exposure with such a deal, but the $$ may be too much to pass up on. Again, that would be a major win for the Big 12, further enhances the supply/demand curve. PAC 12 would prefer to pair an Apple TV deal with a broadcast partner, possibly a game of the week package, but Apple has resisted (for obvious reasons) and is insisting on getting the PAC 12 Championship game too.

WarnerDiscovery is rumored to be interested in the PAC, but they are a mess right now.

Also whispers in the industry that Amazon has the Sunday Ticket package wrapped up, just working on the language. Will require Prime + a fee to subscribe, but there are plans around adding in Redzone or something similar too, would be very compelling.

Wondering if the "good week" we had and the ACC's predicament could work against us? Could it be that we are trending in a good direction, but long term, ACC has more strength than us? And could that lead to the ACC plucking up someone like West Virginia?

Or is it possible that assuming we have a new commissioner by July, and our outcome looks far better, that the Big 12 might go on offense and pluck a couple of teams from the ACC?

Sports commentators are a dime a dozen, and they're all trying to get clicks, but I was listening to one that mentioned it's possible that if the Big 12 continues to show strength, they could grab Louisville and Pitt. Who knows where he got that from (probably pulled it out of the clouds), but that at least sounded intriguing.
 

SuperBarrFrog

Active Member
Good week last week for the Big 12s future TV rights… Big Ten has started finalizing football Tier 1 deals with Fox, CBS, and NBC. Amazon has made a superior financial bid vs NBC, but I don’t believe they are going to win out. ESPN has walked away and is sticking with their Tier 2 package of mens basketball which is very profitable for the mothership.

Why is this good news for the Big 12? Both Fox and ESPN are going to lose inventory if this framework holds, inventory they need to fill. They will have to choose between the PAC and the Big 12 but there is room for both. I still expect ESPN to lock this up or ESPN+Fox during their bidding window. The initial discussions are showing the Big 12 has more value than was feared (likely more than the ACC for instance).

Apple is engaged with the PAC again, and again is discussing a deal that includes the PAC 12 network… The league is concerned about the further hit it will take to exposure with such a deal, but the $$ may be too much to pass up on. Again, that would be a major win for the Big 12, further enhances the supply/demand curve. PAC 12 would prefer to pair an Apple TV deal with a broadcast partner, possibly a game of the week package, but Apple has resisted (for obvious reasons) and is insisting on getting the PAC 12 Championship game too.

WarnerDiscovery is rumored to be interested in the PAC, but they are a mess right now.

Also whispers in the industry that Amazon has the Sunday Ticket package wrapped up, just working on the language. Will require Prime + a fee to subscribe, but there are plans around adding in Redzone or something similar too, would be very compelling.
Sunday ticket on amazon would be awesome. Needing a dish to watch football is not an option me or most folks who live in condo buildings or apartments.
 
Wondering if the "good week" we had and the ACC's predicament could work against us? Could it be that we are trending in a good direction, but long term, ACC has more strength than us? And could that lead to the ACC plucking up someone like West Virginia?

Or is it possible that assuming we have a new commissioner by July, and our outcome looks far better, that the Big 12 might go on offense and pluck a couple of teams from the ACC?

Sports commentators are a dime a dozen, and they're all trying to get clicks, but I was listening to one that mentioned it's possible that if the Big 12 continues to show strength, they could grab Louisville and Pitt. Who knows where he got that from (probably pulled it out of the clouds), but that at least sounded intriguing.
From what I can tell, the only team the ACC could or would add at this point would be Notre Dame, and ND has at this point passed on the ACC's offer.

The ACC is in a very tough position, they are locked into a long-term deal that is quite firm, and that is due to their own "mandate" to ESPN to launch the ACC Network which ESPN did but not without a pound of flesh in return. Their members are grumpy, but they have no out until 2036, and YES the ACC and ESPN would vigorously defend their GOR if any member tried to defect.

The WVU path was looked at strongly, but WVU and the ACC both ultimately passed... It just doesn't make sense for either side, and I do mean that. WVU's analysis ultimately determined the Big 12 was a better long-term bet once it added the four additional members. The ACC's TV partners weren't in love with adding WVU (not a major market, despite a very strong following), and the other conference presidents's just can't support WVU's academic profile in the conference.

My personal power rankings of conferences in terms of $$ value and stature nationally:

1a. SEC
1b. Big 10
3. Big 12
4. ACC
5. Pac 12

The distance between the top two is small, as is the distance between 3-5, but the distance from 1b to 3 is massive. I retain the right to change this, but I earnestly believe this is accurate as of now.
 

vicarfrog

Active Member
From what I can tell, the only team the ACC could or would add at this point would be Notre Dame, and ND has at this point passed on the ACC's offer.

The ACC is in a very tough position, they are locked into a long-term deal that is quite firm, and that is due to their own "mandate" to ESPN to launch the ACC Network which ESPN did but not without a pound of flesh in return. Their members are grumpy, but they have no out until 2036, and YES the ACC and ESPN would vigorously defend their GOR if any member tried to defect.

The WVU path was looked at strongly, but WVU and the ACC both ultimately passed... It just doesn't make sense for either side, and I do mean that. WVU's analysis ultimately determined the Big 12 was a better long-term bet once it added the four additional members. The ACC's TV partners weren't in love with adding WVU (not a major market, despite a very strong following), and the other conference presidents's just can't support WVU's academic profile in the conference.

My personal power rankings of conferences in terms of $$ value and stature nationally:

1a. SEC
1b. Big 10
3. Big 12
4. ACC
5. Pac 12

The distance between the top two is small, as is the distance between 3-5, but the distance from 1b to 3 is massive. I retain the right to change this, but I earnestly believe this is accurate as of now.

Thank you so much for taking time to share this analysis! The Big 12 certainly has its work cut out for, but that is really encouraging news.

Given the ACC is pretty locked tight due to GOR, do you think all the conference shuffling might be at stand-still for at least 5-10 years, or is it more like the motto, "The only thing for sure is nothing's for sure"?
 

HG73

Active Member
Good week last week for the Big 12s future TV rights… Big Ten has started finalizing football Tier 1 deals with Fox, CBS, and NBC. Amazon has made a superior financial bid vs NBC, but I don’t believe they are going to win out. ESPN has walked away and is sticking with their Tier 2 package of mens basketball which is very profitable for the mothership.

Why is this good news for the Big 12? Both Fox and ESPN are going to lose inventory if this framework holds, inventory they need to fill. They will have to choose between the PAC and the Big 12 but there is room for both. I still expect ESPN to lock this up or ESPN+Fox during their bidding window. The initial discussions are showing the Big 12 has more value than was feared (likely more than the ACC for instance).

Apple is engaged with the PAC again, and again is discussing a deal that includes the PAC 12 network… The league is concerned about the further hit it will take to exposure with such a deal, but the $$ may be too much to pass up on. Again, that would be a major win for the Big 12, further enhances the supply/demand curve. PAC 12 would prefer to pair an Apple TV deal with a broadcast partner, possibly a game of the week package, but Apple has resisted (for obvious reasons) and is insisting on getting the PAC 12 Championship game too.

WarnerDiscovery is rumored to be interested in the PAC, but they are a mess right now.

Also whispers in the industry that Amazon has the Sunday Ticket package wrapped up, just working on the language. Will require Prime + a fee to subscribe, but there are plans around adding in Redzone or something similar too, would be very compelling.
As always your analysis is fascinating and really appreciated. Please keep it up.
 

HG73

Active Member
Thank you so much for taking time to share this analysis! The Big 12 certainly has its work cut out for, but that is really encouraging news.

Given the ACC is pretty locked tight due to GOR, do you think all the conference shuffling might be at stand-still for at least 5-10 years, or is it more like the motto, "The only thing for sure is nothing's for sure"?
I think USC will bail asap. They can't compete with B1GSEC making twice the money of the PAC. The B1G is renegotiating their TV deals now and the PAC will be renegotiating theirs in a few years. USC will leave for the B1G and bring along 1 or more PAC teams in the biggest western markets (UCLA, CAL, UW, UO, Colo, Arizonas). espn will determine who escapes the PAC. A few west coast teams will convince ND to join for the titanic $$ and the coast to coast scheduling opportunities, eliminating their argument that joining a conference limits their nationwide scheduling. And the B1G doesn't need to invite an even number if teams if they eliminate divisions.

There's your super league. The B1GSEC will be coast to coast with 31-36 teams depending on how many western teams/ND get poached. Those two conferences will make twice what the PAC/ACC/BIG12 make and could easily have their own CFP.

On the bright side, some good PAC teams/markets will be available for the Big12 and there will be only 4 major conferences left standing.
 
Thank you so much for taking time to share this analysis! The Big 12 certainly has its work cut out for, but that is really encouraging news.

Given the ACC is pretty locked tight due to GOR, do you think all the conference shuffling might be at stand-still for at least 5-10 years, or is it more like the motto, "The only thing for sure is nothing's for sure"?
I'll answer that once the Big 12 and Pac 12 re-up their deals with full GOR on both sides.
 

Boomhauer

Active Member
I think USC will bail asap. They can't compete with B1GSEC making twice the money of the PAC. The B1G is renegotiating their TV deals now and the PAC will be renegotiating theirs in a few years. USC will leave for the B1G and bring along 1 or more PAC teams in the biggest western markets (UCLA, CAL, UW, UO, Colo, Arizonas). espn will determine who escapes the PAC. A few west coast teams will convince ND to join for the titanic $$ and the coast to coast scheduling opportunities, eliminating their argument that joining a conference limits their nationwide scheduling. And the B1G doesn't need to invite an even number if teams if they eliminate divisions.

There's your super league. The B1GSEC will be coast to coast with 31-36 teams depending on how many western teams/ND get poached. Those two conferences will make twice what the PAC/ACC/BIG12 make and could easily have their own CFP.

On the bright side, some good PAC teams/markets will be available for the Big12 and there will be only 4 major conferences left standing.

Could definitely see this happening.
 
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