• The KillerFrogs

Finally got a line

SnoSki

SnoSki

Full Member
It's the rookie QB vs a regional opponent effect... If we were playing even a semi-known opponent, like UNLV or maybe CSU, I think it would be around 14-17. Because there's more pressure to beat Baylor on Pachall's shoulders, the spread is lower I think for good measure.

The spread has stayed low so it shows me that many TCU fans don't think Vegas got it wrong.
 
Shadow Dweller

Shadow Dweller

Active Member
InterestedObserver said:
This spread really shocks me. I would have thought TCU would have been favored by 10-14 points. Makes you wonder what Vegas knows that the rest of us don't. I guess it's the result of TCU losing so many players from last years teams.

I don't bet on games, but this one sure looks tempting.
Click to expand...
This.

Personally I don't see us scoring a ton, unless Baylor's D has more holes that expected. New QB with little game experience and an the O-Line, while having some decent playing time, is mostly first time starters. Wouldn't do more than TCU-6 because I have a hard time seeing us score more than 21, and can see Baylor getting a big play or two from RGIII early to make it look closer on the stats than it really will be once the D get's it's rhythm in the first game.
 
talor

talor

Active Member
If you are betting on both you have to TCU -6 and the under.

I think the score will be something like TCU 27 Baylor 16.
 
GO_DJ

GO_DJ

Ticket Exchange Pass
I would suggest not betting the under and the favorite, especially when the under is your team. If we, for some God forsake reason, get down 28-X, you'll have a conflict of interest with your bet. Also if TCU is up 27-24, and you want them to score a TD to cover -6, you lose your under bet. Obviously, the score will end up being whatever it is regardless of your bet, but it kind of takes the fun out of it betting the under and the favorite, especially when you already have a vested interest in the game.

For the record, I don't bet on TCU. Last time I did, Evans missed an extra point that would have made TCU cover (SMU last year). My emotions are worth well more than my peanut bets.
 
G

Gunner

Active Member
All you $5 bettors better think about something. Remember, TCU takes time to score. Hence, we never score 50 to 60 points like some do. That is GP's way. Keep the defense off the field.

Last year, we scored the first 5 times we had the ball. It took forever, because of limited deep strikes and no trick plays. Mostly short passes and medium to short run plays. Ran off alot of clock. You would have thought we would score 70 points looking at that stat.

Think we win by 14 or more and also remember lines at this time of the year are totally meaningless. Nobody knows any team yet. Predicted 24-10 and we fumble once inside the 20 to help them score their lone touchdown, or somesuch. But it would not surprise me if we scored 30 to 37 as Pachall is a real talent and it could reveal itself in this game.

Also, RG3 could be in for a terrible day.
 
TCURiggs

TCURiggs

Active Member
Gunner said:
All you $5 bettors better think about something. Remember, TCU takes time to score. Hence, we never score 50 to 60 points like some do. That is GP's way. Keep the defense off the field.

Last year, we scored the first 5 times we had the ball. It took forever, because of limited deep strikes and no trick plays. Mostly short passes and medium to short run plays. Ran off alot of clock. You would have thought we would score 70 points looking at that stat.

Think we win by 14 or more and also remember lines at this time of the year are totally meaningless. Nobody knows any team yet. Predicted 24-10 and we fumble once inside the 20 to help them score their lone touchdown, or somesuch. But it would not surprise me if we scored 30 to 37 as Pachall is a real talent and it could reveal itself in this game.

Also, RG3 could be in for a terrible day.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't call scoring 5 TDs in the first half, "taking forever to score."
 
Baja Frog

Baja Frog

Active Member
Think the opening line dropping from -10 to -6 with the bettors probably has a lot to do with a Home dog, rivalry game and revenge factor in mind for Baylor. As well as TCU starting a 1st year QB.

Definitely think they are wrong though and we win this by at least 14+ and agree it goes under 56.

If I had one concern though it would be that I re-watched last years TCU vs Baylor game and noticed Griffin overthrew open receivers multiple times (like 5+). McCoy got burned on a 55 yard pass. Baylor's lone TD.

If Griffin has somehow really improved his passing that is a concern. However i am not sure that he has and besides his receivers suck.

TCU 31-13
 
SnoSki

SnoSki

Full Member
roddog said:
hmmmm, everyone likes tcu and the under, bet the house on baylor and the over then!
Click to expand...

That would take some serious stones considering TCU's defense that held Baylor to 10 last year should probably prevent the over from being reached. Not much has changed on that side of the ball.
 
berryfrog95

berryfrog95

Active Member
Houston Frog said:
It started off at 10 and then shot down to 6.5 almost immediately. Made me wonder if the "sharps" knew something we don't, or if they're just basing it on returning starters and what not.

TCU and the under seems like the totally obvious play to me, but when something seems obvious to you in regards to gambling, it usually means you're wrong.
Click to expand...


What He Said ^^^^^^^^^^
 
Frognosticator

Frognosticator

Tier 1
In the last three meetings against Baylor, TCU is 3-0 against the spread (2006, line: -6, final 17-7, 2007, line: -10, final 27-0, 2010, line -21, final 45-10).

Take TCU and the under.

TCU 33 - Baylor 6
 
FrogAbroad

FrogAbroad

Full Member
I forsee a TCU win but w/o covering the spread.

I'm taking Gaylor and the under.

And I'll doubtless be taking heart meds b4 the game's over.
 
berryfrog95

berryfrog95

Active Member
Wow!

My book has -4.5 as well. I can't imagine this much action on Baylor??

Home dog Friday night ESPN is a huge catalyst in my opinion.

7 of last 9 Rose Bowl winners COVERED the spread in their next season opener, FYI.
 

Latest posts

Top