ESPN: What to watch for in first College Football Playoff rankings

[TxFrog1999]

B12 refs have better eyesight than the committee members.

 

[Jefffrog1993]

B12 refs have better eyesight than the committee members.

They are all blind!

 

[An-Cap Frog]

Expected records per Massey
TCU 8-0 (10-2)
KSU 6-2 (9-3)
Texas 5-3 (8-4)
OSU 6-2 (8-4)
Baylor 5-3 (7-5)
OU 5-3 (7-5)
ISU 3-5 (5-7)
Tech 4-4 (6-6)
KU 5-3 (6-6)
WVU 3-5 (4-8)

If TCU runs the table...
TCU 8-0 (12-0)
KSU 6-2 (9-3)
Texas 5-3 (7-5)
OSU 6-2 (8-4)
Baylor 5-3 (6-6)
OU 5-3 (7-5)
ISU 3-5 (5-7)
Tech 4-4 (6-6)
KU 5-3 (6-6)
WVU 3-5 (4-8)

TCU's best case to have 5 ranked Big XII teams...
TCU 8-0 (12-0)
KSU 6-2 (9-3)
Texas 5-3 (8-4)
OSU 6-2 (10-2)
OU 5-3 (8-4)

 

[Dogfrog]

I think the thing that gets overlooked with these committee rankings while everyone is laser focused on who will make the playoff is how they rank 5-15 since their rankings go a long way toward determining who gets into the NY6 games. When I see TCU at 7 here then it not only means we have almost no shot at the playoff without being 13-0 but it also means that if we finish 11-2 but don't win the Big 12 then we may not even make it into a NY6 game. And certainly if we finish 10-3 then we almost definitely won't, just like in 2017.

Yea a lot going on at the 5-25 level. In the AP poll Texas is unranked. The committee placing 3-loss Texas at 24 now may be the additional ranked opponent criterion Bama needed to stay ahead of TCU THIS WEEK, whether Texas stays ranked or not. And positioning Bama ahead of TCU now makes it very unlikely for an undefeated TCU to ever pass Bama unless Bama loses again.

 

[Bob Sugar]

In 2014, MSU was #1 in the first poll and lost 2 of their last 5; Auburn was #3 and lost 3 of their last 5 (one to unranked aTm); Ole Miss was #4 and lost 2 of their next 4 (one to unranked Arkansas).
2015: LSU was #2 and lost 3 of the last 4 (one to unranked Arkansas)
2016: Michigan was #3 and lost 2 of the next 4 (one to unranked Iowa); aTm was #4 and lost 3 of the next 4 (all to unranked teams and only beating UTSA) to not even finish in the CFP Top 25...lol.

2017, ND lost 2; 2018, LSU lost 2; 2019, Bama lost 2;

2020 was the only year the top 4 in the first week were the top 4 in the final rankings, but that season was just weird and the CFP poll was released 3 weeks later than usual. Ohio State only played 6 games before the playoffs. ND got in off a loss in the ACC championship game against Clemson, at 10-1, aTm arguably had a gripe about this but they were only 8-1. Cincinnati was undefeated but was only 9-0, but their best win was against 6-2 Tulsa, whereas ND had beaten Clemson earlier in the year and also had a win against a ranked UNC.

Heck, just last year Michigan State was #3 and lost 2 of the last 4 (1 to unranked Purdue the following week); Oregon was #4 and lost 2 of the last 4

I think you can see the point that there's zero reason to give the current ranking more than a brief thought. There's a lot of football to play.

 

[Wexahu]

Yea a lot going on at the 5-25 level. In the AP poll Texas is unranked. The committee placing 3-loss Texas at 24 now may be the additional ranked opponent criterion Bama needed to stay ahead of TCU THIS WEEK, whether Texas stays ranked or not. And positioning Bama ahead of TCU now makes it very unlikely for an undefeated TCU to ever pass Bama unless Bama loses again.

Alabama will end up higher than us if they don't lose again, but the odds of the decision coming down to Alabama or TCU for spot is miniscule. Bama is not our competition. Georgia/Tennessee, Clemson, Michigan/Ohio State are. Bama's road is clear, win and they are in without a shred of doubt. Lose and they are going to need a lot of help. And I don't think the committee or ESPN would have any burning desire for a 2-loss Bama team to be in the playoff, I think they'd MUCH rather see some new blood in that situation.

Man, if you think the committee is thinking that far ahead to conspire to keep TCU out, I just think that's some tinfoil hat stuff. In the end, Texas being ranked helps us just as much, if not more, than it helps Bama. Whether it's their being ranked this week or the last week.

 

[Dogfrog]

Alabama will end up higher than us if they don't lose again, but the odds of the decision coming down to Alabama or TCU for spot is miniscule. Bama is not our competition. Georgia/Tennessee, Clemson, Michigan/Ohio State are. Bama's road is clear, win and they are in without a shred of doubt. Lose and they are going to need a lot of help. And I don't think the committee or ESPN would have any burning desire for a 2-loss Bama team to be in the playoff, I think they'd MUCH rather see some new blood in that situation.

Man, if you think the committee is thinking that far ahead to conspire to keep TCU out, I just think that's some tinfoil hat stuff. In the end, Texas being ranked helps us just as much, if not more, than it helps Bama. Whether it's their being ranked this week or the last week.

You keep missing the significance of opponent ranking this week for positioning purposes right now. Texas being ranked right now doesn’t help us at all because we haven’t played them and if we beat them they will no longer be ranked. It helps Bama because they have played them and beat them.

I never said this was done intentionally to screw us but I do believe people on that committee would rank Texas to help Bama and the SEC.

 

[Wexahu]

You keep missing the significance of opponent ranking this week for positioning purposes right now. Texas being ranked right now doesn’t help us at all because we haven’t played them and if we beat them they will no longer be ranked. It helps Bama because they have played them and beat them.

I never said this was done intentionally to screw us but I do believe people on that committee would rank Texas to help Bama and the SEC.

I'm just saying where Alabama is this week is almost totally irrelevant. Whether they were #3 or #8, their path is the same. Win out and in for sure, lose a game and need a lot of help. If they don't at least make the CCG, they have zero chance. And if they get in that game and lose, I don't see how they would ever be picked. So I'd almost say lose another game and have almost no chance. Their only potential path with another loss is lose another game, STILL make the CCG, and then win that. Even that is no guarantee they'd get in at all.

So why would the committee need to make a concerted effort to keep their ranking high this week by including Texas in the Top 25 (like that really moves the needle anyway)?

 

[Dogfrog]

I'm just saying where Alabama is this week is almost totally irrelevant. Whether they were #3 or #8, their path is the same. Win out and in for sure, lose a game and need a lot of help. If they don't at least make the CCG, they have zero chance. And if they get in that game and lose, I don't see how they would ever be picked. So I'd almost say lose another game and have almost no chance. Their only potential path with another loss is lose another game, STILL make the CCG, and then win that. Even that is no guarantee they'd get in at all.

So why would the committee need to make a concerted effort to keep their ranking high this week by including Texas in the Top 25 (like that really moves the needle anyway)?

First week positioning is not at all irrelevant.

 

[Wexahu]

First week positioning is not at all irrelevant.

For Alabama it is.

 

[Putt4Purple]

I'm sure their strength of schedule wasn't good, that's why they were ranked so low. But you can't tell me there is any kind of scenario where we are 9-0 and ranked #13 behind eight 1 or 2 loss teams and TCU fans aren't completely flipping out....no matter what our SOS, margin of victory, home/road wins, etc.

And from that point on Baylor lost a game and was still playing for a playoff bid in CCG week.

There's a line somewhere between trying too hard and just trying to make a little sense of it.

Why in the hell are to trying to justify TCU's lower ranking? Your happy that your number crunching supposed objectivity has come true? Your passive aggressive attitude sure comes thru when trying to put TCU in a lower tier, but heaven forbid Ohio State is slighted in any form. You come out swinging in full defense mode. I/we can see through you. Are you sure your not Muck? Just come out with it! Oh wait, Muck is a Longhorn. Never mind!!

 

[Prime BEEF]

As stated above, ESPN's goal (and therefore the committee's goal) is to stir up interest in CFB, get people talking and increase ESPN's CFB game and ancillary shows' ratings. If they can do it by belittling smaller schools without ruffling the feathers of the major brands, so much the better. The part where they try to justify their picks has always been hogwash. Why should it be any different this year?

As for the team. They know the most important game on the schedule is the next one. Control what you can control. Just win, baby. Keep doing that and everything will be fine.

Wouldn’t they stir up more interest by screwing a big brand school with lots of fans instead of a small private school? The “they are just trying to stir things up” doesn’t pass the eye test with me.

 

[Endless Purple]

Yea a lot going on at the 5-25 level. In the AP poll Texas is unranked. The committee placing 3-loss Texas at 24 now may be the additional ranked opponent criterion Bama needed to stay ahead of TCU THIS WEEK, whether Texas stays ranked or not. And positioning Bama ahead of TCU now makes it very unlikely for an undefeated TCU to ever pass Bama unless Bama loses again.

Bama position is meaningless at this time.
They will lose again or they win the SEC, no other option.

 

[Dogfrog]

For Alabama it is.

For TCU it’s not. You said yourself if Bama wins out TCU can’t pass them. So TCU is potentially locked behind Bama permanently. That’s called positioning.

Look, I am fully aware that TCU could go 8-4. Now that would make it all irrelevant.

 

[Eight]

Wouldn’t they stir up more interest by screwing a big brand school with lots of fans instead of a small private school? The “they are just trying to stir things up” doesn’t pass the eye test with me.

everybody likes the story of the oppressed underdog who isn't being given his respect or due fighting their way for a shot

if alabama was a slot behind tcu a logical story can be told that if bama wins out and beats whomever in the sec they will get in and you have that discussion not if an sec team is good enough, but how many

you don't have that discussion with the big 12 schools and goodness knows there is no discussion surrounding the pac

this is wwe 101 with a baby face having to fight for respect from an organization of heels

 

[Wexahu]

For TCU it’s not. You said yourself if Bama wins out TCU can’t pass them. So TCU is potentially locked behind Bama permanently. That’s called positioning.

Look, I am fully aware that TCU could go 8-4. Now that would make it all irrelevant.

So what. If Alabama wins out they will at worst be ranked #2 in the final poll. Two spots open behind them. Again, Alabama isn’t our competition.

I get accused of trying too hard and that’s probably justified at times, but you’re trying way too hard in this case if you’re saying they have Texas ranked just to justify Bama’s ranking this week ahead of TCU.

 

[TooColdU]

That’d be a weird argument given we would have beaten them too, at their place, most likely by more than 1. IMO that would benefit us more than Bama.

UT is relatively high in most computer rankings, it’s not all that surprising they are in the Top 25. And my point stands.

We had a common opponent with Ohio State back 2014, Minnesota.

Who beat Minnesota by more points and did it matter?

I think it’s funny how when lower 20’s spots go to SEC or B10 teams it’s because the committee wants to make sure schools from those conferences have more wins over ranked teams at the end of the season, but when UT gets supposedly over ranked at #24, there is some other agenda involved. Lol. You think they are trying to position UT to sneak into the Top 4?

TF. When did I say any of that. Just thought it was funny that they were ranked. Lucky for them they had a bye week.

 

[Prime BEEF]

everybody likes the story of the oppressed underdog who isn't being given his respect or due fighting their way for a shot

if alabama was a slot behind tcu a logical story can be told that if bama wins out and beats whomever in the sec they will get in and you have that discussion not if an sec team is good enough, but how many

you don't have that discussion with the big 12 schools and goodness knows there is no discussion surrounding the pac

this is wwe 101 with a baby face having to fight for respect from an organization of heels

Switch tOSU with TCU. Would be easy to do based on their awful schedule so far. You don’t think there would be more drama in doing that than they have right now? I definitely think things would be crazier if they did that

 

[Wexahu]

We had a common opponent with Ohio State back 2014, Minnesota.

Who beat Minnesota by more points and did it matter?

TF. When did I say any of that. Just thought it was funny that they were ranked. Lucky for them they had a bye week.

I suppose it did matter that we beat Minnesota by more points. Not enough to offset OSU better strength of schedule, their outright conference championship, their equal record (actually slightly better at 12-1) and the fact they completely dominated their CCG.

I mean, if they lose to Michigan and we lose a game but finish 12-1 and beat UT and K-State 45-0 in our CCG, we are going in ahead of OSU.

 

[Double V]

A lot of us here have admitted that losing a couple games out of these next four wouldn't be all that surprising (and of the four we play one team that is ranked right now in UT, and people are mocking that they are ranked). On the other hand, I don't think anyone thinks that Michigan, Ohio State, Tennessee, Georgia, Clemson, or Alabama will lose another game other than whey they play each other. You can tell that by people more or less throwing in the towel at our chances if we lose a game. What does that say?

It's like we see our own warts, but we can't stand it when other people do.

That called reverse sports psychology, damnit! Don't you know, we're screwed!!!???