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ESPN: What to watch for in first College Football Playoff rankings

gohornedfrogs

gohornedfrogs

Tier 1
Fred Garvin said:
What to watch for? - The key thing is to not get too worked up about it because there is a lot of football left to be played and the only poll that counts is the last one.

One addition - the rankings are all about hyping a TV show for ESPN and generating buzz for CFB.
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Mississippi State was #1 in the first ever CFP ranking.

That's all you really need to know.
 
JogginFrog

JogginFrog

Active Member
I'm hopeful that the committee will show respect for resume over "eye test" early.

That will show up, as the article points out, in how TCU is ranked compared to Clemson, which has played a much softer schedule in compiling its 8-0 record. (That applies to Michigan, too, but I can't take my expectations that far.)

The other thing that doesn't show up anywhere in this article, but that I wish the committee would consider, is how difficult it is to win on the road. I don't expect the Frogs to get extra credit for beating Colorado and SMU, but there are exactly 6 D1 teams (4 in Power 5 conferences) that have won 3 road games without a loss. None of them are Tennessee, Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan or Alabama.
 
BrewingFrog

BrewingFrog

Was I supposed to type something here?
This is all about ESPN. This is all about driving ratings, buzz, clicks, the whole 9 yards. This CFB Playoff is their baby, and they mean to wring every penny they can out of it.

Oh, and "The Committee" is a sick joke: They don't determine diddley-squat. They are told what to do, and they do it. Each and every move ESPN makes is carefully crafted and thought out. Allowing a bunch of eggheads to determine their glittering diamond of ratings? Please. Each and every thing is planned and scripted beforehand. The endless speculation about "what The Committee will do" is laughable, and designed to do nothing but fill content and drive ratings. In the end, "The Committee" will do precisely what they are told, when they are told to do it: Deliver the matchups ESPN thinks will bring the highest ratings. Nothing more.
 
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Wexahu

Full Member
Frog-in-law1995 said:
Year One proved any ranking prior to the first weekend in December is absolute pointless nonsense.
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Of course it is. There are five more games to play.

I guess this is where I'll remind people again that just LAST YEAR in the first CFP poll unbeaten (9-0) "blue blood" Oklahoma was ranked #8, behind FOUR 1-loss teams. And the following week, they were 9-0 and ranked #8 behind FIVE 1-loss teams.

Just for the "this would never happen to the blue blood" crowd.
 
W

Wexahu

Full Member
BrewingFrog said:
This is all about ESPN. This is all about driving ratings, buzz, clicks, the whole 9 yards. This CFB Playoff is their baby, and they mean to wring every penny they can out of it.

Oh, and "The Committee" is a sick joke: They don't determine diddley-squat. They are told what to do, and they do it. Each and every move ESPN makes is carefully crafted and thought out. Allowing a bunch of eggheads to determine their glittering diamond of ratings? Please. Each and every thing is planned and scripted beforehand. The endless speculation about "what The Committee will do" is laughable, and designed to do nothing but fill content and drive ratings. In the end, "The Committee" will do precisely what they are told, when they are told to do it: Deliver the matchups ESPN thinks will bring the highest ratings. Nothing more.
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Who are the teams they are being told to include this year? I mean, if it's set in stone, name them. Let's see how it works out.
 
W

Wexahu

Full Member
JogginFrog said:
I'm hopeful that the committee will show respect for resume over "eye test" early.

That will show up, as the article points out, in how TCU is ranked compared to Clemson, which has played a much softer schedule in compiling its 8-0 record. (That applies to Michigan, too, but I can't take my expectations that far.)

The other thing that doesn't show up anywhere in this article, but that I wish the committee would consider, is how difficult it is to win on the road. I don't expect the Frogs to get extra credit for beating Colorado and SMU, but there are exactly 6 D1 teams (4 in Power 5 conferences) that have won 3 road games without a loss. None of them are Tennessee, Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan or Alabama.
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Having watched all our games this year, do you think we should be ranked higher than any of those teams? If we played them tomorrow, would we be favorites or underdogs? Should the committee take that into any consideration at all? Just curious how you would go about your task if you were on the committee.
 
P

Putt4Purple

Active Member
Wexahu said:
Having watched all our games this year, do you think we should be ranked higher than any of those teams? If we played them tomorrow, would we be favorites or underdogs? Should the committee take that into any consideration at all? Just curious how you would go about your task if you were on the committee.
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TCU's eye test is better than Ohio State's. The Buckeyes have played one halfway decent team. Penn State is not that good.
 
Dogfrog

Dogfrog

Active Member
Wexahu said:
Having watched all our games this year, do you think we should be ranked higher than any of those teams? If we played them tomorrow, would we be favorites or underdogs? Should the committee take that into any consideration at all? Just curious how you would go about your task if you were on the committee.
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Wex, you are a great poster. I patiently await any significant disagreements you might have with the committee. Otherwise it seems very clear where you stand.
 
JogginFrog

JogginFrog

Active Member
Wexahu said:
Having watched all our games this year, do you think we should be ranked higher than any of those teams? If we played them tomorrow, would we be favorites or underdogs? Should the committee take that into any consideration at all? Just curious how you would go about your task if you were on the committee.
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If it were me, I would do something like this to attempt to keep the focus on resume without disregarding eye test, while not overly weighting recruiting rankings:

0 points for wins over bad teams at home
1 point for wins over bad teams on the road
1 point for wins over fair teams at home
2 points for wins over fair teams on the road
2 points for wins over good teams at home
3 points for wins over good teams on the road
3 points for wins over elite teams at home
4 points for wins over elite teams on the road
-0 points for elite losses; -1 for good losses; -2 for fair losses; -3 for bad losses
up to 3 points bonus for eye test (1 offense; 1 defense; 1 margin of victory)
(true neutral site games split the difference; close neutral sites = home)

Doing that, Clemson scores better than I gave them credit for. In fact, they'd be in my top 4 based largely on quality road wins. TCU would be 5th or 6th.

Tennessee: 0+2+0+2+3+3+0+2=12+bonus 3 = 15
Clemson: 2+0+0+3+2+1+3+2=13+bonus 2 = 15
Georgia: 3+0+2+0+2+2+0+2.5=11.5+bonus 3 = 14.5
Ohio State: 2+0+0+1+1+2+2+3=11+bonus 3 = 14
Michigan: 0+0+0+2+3+2+2+1=10+bonus 3 = 13
TCU: 1+0+1+1+3+2+2+2=12+bonus 1 = 13
Alabama: 0+3+0+0+2+2-0+1=8+bonus 3 = 11
Oregon: -0+0+1+2+1+1+2+2=9+bonus 2 = 11

How would you do it, Wex?
 
W

Wexahu

Full Member
Putt4Purple said:
TCU's eye test is better than Ohio State's. The Buckeyes have played one halfway decent team. Penn State is not that good.
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Not so sure about that. OSU is beating teams by an average of 32 points. We're beating teams by an average of 17. Their strength of schedule is pretty much on a par with ours. The Penn State "is not that good" comment is pure conjecture. They've beaten everyone they've played except at unbeaten Michigan and Ohio State at home, so the two opponents they've lost to appear to be better than any opponent we've played. By your measure, how many good teams have we played? Let's compare those to Penn State.

We've looked so much better in the eye test that I bet we'd be 10+ point underdogs if we played them tomorrow on a neutral field. In other words, you have little interest in looking at this objectively.
 
W

Wexahu

Full Member
JogginFrog said:
If it were me, I would do something like this to attempt to keep the focus on resume without disregarding eye test, while not overly weighting recruiting rankings:

0 points for wins over bad teams at home
1 point for wins over bad teams on the road
1 point for wins over fair teams at home
2 points for wins over fair teams on the road
2 points for wins over good teams at home
3 points for wins over good teams on the road
3 points for wins over elite teams at home
4 points for wins over elite teams on the road
-0 points for elite losses; -1 for good losses; -2 for fair losses; -3 for bad losses
up to 3 points bonus for eye test (1 offense; 1 defense; 1 margin of victory)
(true neutral site games split the difference; close neutral sites = home)

Doing that, Clemson scores better than I gave them credit for. In fact, they'd be in my top 4 based largely on quality road wins. TCU would be 5th or 6th.

Tennessee: 0+2+0+2+3+3+0+2=12+bonus 3 = 15
Clemson: 2+0+0+3+2+1+3+2=13+bonus 2 = 15
Georgia: 3+0+2+0+2+2+0+2.5=11.5+bonus 3 = 14.5
Ohio State: 2+0+0+1+1+2+2+3=11+bonus 3 = 14
Michigan: 0+0+0+2+3+2+2+1=10+bonus 3 = 13
TCU: 1+0+1+1+3+2+2+2=12+bonus 1 = 13
Alabama: 0+3+0+0+2+2-0+1=8+bonus 3 = 11
Oregon: -0+0+1+2+1+1+2+2=9+bonus 2 = 11

How would you do it, Wex?
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By mostly looking at W-L records and game results, but with some "who do I think is better and who would win" sprinkled in. It's not a super cut and dried formula, but it's also not that hard to determine who at the end of the season should be the 4 teams picked. I've guessed every CFP pick made with the exception of ND over A&M a couple years ago, that one surprised me a bit.

Generally it's going to be 4 conference champions unless one or more of them have a couple losses, which they usually always do. If it comes down to a "tie", look at results, strength of schedule, margin of victory, yada yada yada, the same stuff anyone else would look at.
 

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