• The KillerFrogs

2021 Frog Baseball (General)

tcumaniac

tcumaniac

Full Member
From Horns 247:
TEXAS V. TCU BASEBALL PREVIEW

Big series coming up this weekend, so I thought it’d be fun to put together an (amateur’s) preview of the Horn Frogs and what Texas is up against. Feel free to add any comments/correct any mistakes!

Texas game notes can be found here:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/texassports_com/documents/2021/5/6/2021_5_7_TCU.pdf


BACKGROUND:


#3 in the country according to D1Baseball, TCU currently leads the Big 12 with a 15-3 record. They’re sitting on a 4 game win streak after beating UT Arlington April 27th, then sweeping WVU in Morgantown last weekend. Their game against Incarnate Word this past Tuesday was canceled, so they’ll be well rested. Interestingly, TCU’s last loss was a surprising 2-1 defeat to Kansas at home.

#6 in the country according to D1Baseball, Texas sits in second in the Big 12 with a 13-5 record and a 2 game win streak following the Sunday W against Tech and a midweek contest against Texas State. Texas dropped it’s first Big 12 series of the year last weekend at home to Tech 1-2.

This series likely will determine the Big 12 Regular Season Champ, as TCU travel to KState and Texas takes on WVU at home to wrap up conference play. Perhaps equally important, due to the scheduling of Regionals and Super Regional sites this year (they’re selecting in mid-May due to COVID instead of waiting until end of year), this series could cement either team’s bid for a top 8 seed.

Tickets for the game are already hard to come by, with the secondary market touching $100 for general admission. It’s graduation weekend in Ft. Worth, so expect the crowd to be the most hostile Texas has played against this year. Weather forecast for the weekend looks awesome, with temps in the mid-80s, but there is forecast to be some wind out of the south which could (I believe) help the pitchers out a bit. Been awhile since I’ve caught a game up there, so can’t speak too much to the wind-factor, other than the stadium faces south, so wind should be blowing in….

GAME SCHEDULE:

Game 1: Friday 5/7 at 7:30 pm. ESPNU will have the TV coverage, and online radio can be found at TexasSports.com/audio (I believe all games will be on 104.9 as well for local folks)

Game 2: Saturday 5/8 at 2pm. ESPNU will again show the game and online radio will have the Texas call.

Game 3: Sunday 5/9 at 1pm. Big 12 Now (part of ESPN+) will host the TV coverage and online radio will have the streaming audio.

PROBABLE STARTERS:

Friday: Ty Madden (6-2, 2.21) vs. TCU LHP Russell Smith (6-1, 3.30)

Saturday: Tristen Stevens (7-2, 3.16) vs. TCU LHP Austin Krob (6-0, 3.06)

Sunday: Pete F’n Hansen (5-1, 2.05) vs. TCU RHP Johnny Ray (3-2, 4.93)

TEXAS NOTES:

Ty Madden had a blister burst on his throwing hand last week, and it severely impacted his slider (as shown by the absolute candy down the middle he handed Tech on a few occasions). Pierce and Co. offered him the chance to push back to Sunday so he could recover further, but Madden refused and demanded the ball for Friday’s contest. He must have his command or it will be a long night against a very good hitting team.

Also, it’ll be exciting to see Pete Hansen back in the weekend rotation. This is hardly a welcoming team to start against, but his performance against Tech last Sunday should give folks hope. Tristen Stevens has been performing above expectations all year, and anything over 6 innings with him would be an absolute treat.

As a staff, Texas has the fifth-best ERA in the country at 2.93. That leads the conference by a good margin.

Look for Cole Quintanilla (who has really been coming on), Tanner Witt, Aaron Nixon, and possibly even Lucas Gordon to come out of the pen and try to shut things down. Another one to watch is Kolby Kubichek. The now-displaced Sunday starter is available, and will likely be on standby for long-relief if needed. At one point early in his career, some folks thought he could be a nasty closer, so hopefully he responds well to losing his spot.

Offensively, the play of Cam Williams and Eric Kennedy will be something to watch. Cam is returning from a slight knock and Kennedy has been absolutely zapped of confidence as of late. If one of those guys can come in and perform up to their abilities, it could really turn the pace of the series in the Longhorns favor.


TCU BREAKDOWN:

Here’s where things get interesting. TCU has slowly risen back up this year after suffering a similar start to Texas with the difficult Arlington post-iceage, but managed to win one against Miss State to come out 1-2. The Horned Frogs are 17-3 at home and hold the #2 RPI in the country. They are 6-6 against top 25 RPI teams, and 6-0 against 26-50 RPI squads. By comparison, Texas holds the #6 RPI in the country and is also 6-6 against top 25 RPI teams, with 2-1 record against 26-50 squads. TCU dropped in the rankings early after suffering losses to Sam Houston (Shriners Classic), Texas State on the road, 2 losses to Gonzaga at home, before going 2-1 against Louisiana on the road (all in March). Since then, they’ve been mostly on a roll, and their rankings reflect that. TCU swept Baylor, OU, OSU, and WVU so far this year. The Frogs lost the series to Tech (in Lubbock) 1-2, and dropped the aforementioned game to Kansas at home.

Offensively, TCU is flat out great. They lead the country in runs scored and triples, are second most in walks, third most in hits, and fifth most in doubles. The Frogs also are exceptional on the bases (and they run a lot), going a combined 86-100 in stolen bases, led by Gene Wood (.280) who is 16-16. The Longhorns are 63-80, and also have some speed with Mike Antico sitting at 24 SB on the year and the struggling Eric Kennedy at 16-18. Hitters to watch are: Phil Sikes (.377), probably the best hitter on the team, yet has been stuck in the 6-hole for some reason; Hunter Wolfe (.336); Zach Humphreys (.329); Brayden Taylor (.325); and Gray Rodgers (.304). As a whole, that group has a patient approach, with both Humphreys and Taylor boasting more walks than strikeouts (though Taylor has 32 to his name). Both Sikes and Rodgers are on somewhat of hot streaks, and Texas will need to limit those two to have a chance of winning the series. Taylor has reached base safely in 22 straight games, with a 13 game hitting streak; Humphreys has reached safely in 15 straight games with an 8 game hitting streak, and Sikes has reached safely in 32 straight contests (with 19 multi-hit games this season).

Defensively, TCU has improved greatly, and they made some nice plays against WVU this past weekend. Catcher Humphreys threw out 3 base runners and has a great arm that will punish us should the boys not get a clean jump this weekend. Tommy Sacco plays a very sound SS, and is a mainstay of the lineup despite batting .230 with 45 strikeouts (hello Trey Faltine). The outfield can run and will limit extra bases on anything not absolutely smashed. All-in-all, the team boasts a .979 fielding percentage, turning 90 double plays, and only 33 errors. Texas can hold their own with the Frogs there, as the Longhorns defense is exceptional as well: fielding .980 with 96 double plays against 36 errors.

Pitching for the Frogs has been solid, if not stellar this year. Though the starters and bullpen are continuing to improve, they are prone a few wild outings (WVU scored runs last weekend on wild pitches and benefited from multiple walks). Last weekend, the Frogs held WVU to 6 total runs all weekend, so the talent is definitely there. The starters can be touched up if they’re hit early; this past weekend, no starter went longer than 5 2/3rds innings. Russell Smith (3.30 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 72k in 57.1 innings) will likely go Friday; Austin Krob (3.06 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 68k in 61.2 innings) will probably go Saturday; and Johnny Ray (4.93 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 44ks in 42.0 innings) is likely to go Sunday. TCU’s bullpen has typically been their bigger issue, but they really came on last weekend going 11.2 innings with 2 wins (Drew Hill and Luke Savage) and a save by River Ridings (0.39 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 28ks in 23.1 innings). The bullpen only allowed 2 runs and just 7 hits through the three games, with 15 strikeouts against only one walk. They will have some momentum, but if Texas swings the bat (instead of racking up backwards K’s like they did against Tech), I think they’ll have a chance to rattle those guys a bit. One interesting note, TCU’s best reliever and team leader Haylen Green (1-1, 2.09 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 46ks in 38.2 innings) did not feature last weekend against WVU. No word on an injury, but if he’s out that definitely helps.


FINAL THOUGHTS:

This series should be a good one. Texas has a real chance to grab momentum going into the post season and tighten up the Big 12 race, but will be up against a real tough environment and a team that has been rolling. TCU has not faced the kind of pitching Texas is capable of bringing since Arlington, but their bats are undoubtedly up for the challenge. Texas has the bullpen arms to shut things down, but it will be crucial strike early and not allow TCU to hold bullpen guys back until game 3. A series W would be fantastic, but avoiding the sweep should keep Texas safely in contention to nab a top 16 seed at least. Let’s hope Pierce has the boys ready to go. Hook ‘em
 
Purp

Purp

Active Member
tcumaniac said:
From Horns 247:
TEXAS V. TCU BASEBALL PREVIEW

Big series coming up this weekend, so I thought it’d be fun to put together an (amateur’s) preview of the Horn Frogs and what Texas is up against. Feel free to add any comments/correct any mistakes!

FINAL THOUGHTS:

This series should be a good one. Texas has a real chance to grab momentum going into the post season and tighten up the Big 12 race, but will be up against a real tough environment and a team that has been rolling. TCU has not faced the kind of pitching Texas is capable of bringing since Arlington, but their bats are undoubtedly up for the challenge. Texas has the bullpen arms to shut things down, but it will be crucial strike early and not allow TCU to hold bullpen guys back until game 3. A series W would be fantastic, but avoiding the sweep should keep Texas safely in contention to nab a top 16 seed at least. Let’s hope Pierce has the boys ready to go. Hook ‘em
Click to expand...
I feel like this could be a confidence boosting performance for our staff if Texas isn't aggressive at the plate. They had about 80 strikeouts in 3 games in Arlington (only slight hyperbole) and our guys have swing and miss stuff if it's working. But if we're hanging off speed stuff in the zone all weekend it could get ugly. They have a couple big bats. Our offense really needs to make their staff work. We do that pretty well with a lot of guys who go deep into counts and consistently put good ABs together, but we need to be disciplined and not swing at too many bad pitches. There are a lot of walks and SBs to be had for our offense in this series if we keep doing what we've been doing at the plate. Just hoping we keep the TOOTBLANs to a minimum.
 
M

Moose Stuff

Active Member
Purp said:
I feel like this could be a confidence boosting performance for our staff if Texas isn't aggressive at the plate. They had about 80 strikeouts in 3 games in Arlington (only slight hyperbole) and our guys have swing and miss stuff if it's working. But if we're hanging off speed stuff in the zone all weekend it could get ugly. They have a couple big bats. Our offense really needs to make their staff work. We do that pretty well with a lot of guys who go deep into counts and consistently put good ABs together, but we need to be disciplined and not swing at too many bad pitches. There are a lot of walks and SBs to be had for our offense in this series if we keep doing what we've been doing at the plate. Just hoping we keep the TOOTBLANs to a minimum.
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I wouldn't judge UT off Globe Life. For inexplicable reasons CDC didn't let them practice AT ALL the entire week leading up to those games. That was the bad freeze week. We were all dealing with it but at least TCU was able to get indoors and do SOMETHING.
 
M

Moose Stuff

Active Member
jake102 said:
I predict the results shouldn't really matter. I feel like UT and TCU are both clearly top 8 teams worthy of a National Seed
Click to expand...

I tend to agree. Assuming a well played 2-1/1-2 result this weekend I think that's what happens. If one team totally [ Finebaum ]s the bed and gets swept in ugly fashion then I could see them being left out.
 
Purp

Purp

Active Member
Moose Stuff said:
I wouldn't judge UT off Globe Life. For inexplicable reasons CDC didn't let them practice AT ALL the entire week leading up to those games. That was the bad freeze week. We were all dealing with it but at least TCU was able to get indoors and do SOMETHING.
Click to expand...
I guess I could have worded that better. I've noticed they don't strike out nearly as much as they did in Arlington that's almost unpossible), but they still seem to strike out a healthy amount in their games that I've watched since. Krob's off-speed stuff is the kind of stuff they seem to struggle with the most. Big Russ can do the same. Haylen and Ridings are two more. If you hang it they'll punish it, but if you keep the off-speed stuff down they'll wave at it or hope it doesn't cross through the zone.
 
Pharm Frog

Pharm Frog

Full Member
Moose Stuff said:
I tend to agree. Assuming a well played 2-1/1-2 result this weekend I think that's what happens. If one team totally [ #2020 ]s the bed and gets swept in ugly fashion then I could see them being left out.
Click to expand...

I’ll put it similarly. I haven’t seen eight teams more worthy than these two to this point in the season and it’s pretty damn late in the season.
 

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