Big 12 in position to poach Pac 12 schools?

[HG73]

Now we’re getting ridiculous! Pasadena is not even close to Houston. It’s in California!

Also I never said SMU was getting in to any conference. I threw in Rice based solely on academics and location. Not saying they are a great option for tv dollars, but they certainly have some appeal to certain schools in the PAC.

I think if the Big Ten expands it starts with Notre Lame. I think Mizzou is always trying to join the Big Ten. Illinois doesn’t appeal to St. Louis and Nebraska never brought KC. If the Big Ten goes west I think they take Stanford over Washington and maybe Oregon. I’ve never thought Washington moves a needle that much. I also think the Big Ten could look east. Boston College along with Syracuse and UConn might have some appeal. I don’t think UVA, UNC, and Duke would be considered for the Big Ten, but at this point nothing the Big Ten does seems to make sense.

I do think the PAC schools are looking. There really isn’t anyone the Pac can add unless you start with poaching the Big 12.

I think B1G would like VA & UNC but like the rest of the PAC teams they don't bring enough money to keep from diluting the other teams shares.
PAC and Big12 should have just merged before Big12 expanded. 18 teams, put Colorado in the eastern division and you have two divisions of 9 teams each.

 

[HG73]

I knew you were talking about Pasadena,TX. It was just getting a little silly with tv markets.

Something just hit me. Is the Big Ten in a position to force Notre Lame’s hand. Think about this scenario. The Big Ten adds Stanford and Boston College. They create a schedule that makes it virtually impossible for Notre Lame to schedule Big Ten football games. Now they have killed almost all of NDs rivalry games. Even worse they could force ND out of conference for hockey and replace them with North Dakota. What would that do to Notre Lame? I’m not putting anything past the Big Ten when it comes to killing off Notre Lame if they don’t join the Big Ten soon.

Excellent idea. B1G wouldn't need to add anyone else, just boycott ND. ND can't make a living playing Stanford, Navy and BC. Might force them to join ACC, but B1G will still be better from a money standpoint.

 

[JogginFrog]

I hope and expect ADJD is thinking about how TCU makes it into a 48-school Power 4 megaconference future.

If the future is limited to 24-32 schools with the biggest alumni bases, there is little TCU can do to get in.

If the future is 4 mega-conferences with 64 teams, TCU should be fine.

But if the future is 48, TCU is a bubble team. It has strengthened its resume via performance, facilities, and institutional profile. But it has to think clearly about whom it is competing against on that bubble, and how it wins.

Seeing more schools added to the current Power 5 doesn't help--especially if one is SMU. TCU is way ahead on facilities and performance, but PAC membership for SMU could close that gap quickly. If the PAC is willing to take TCU, you have to ask if keeping SMU down is the best long-term move.

(You also have to wonder if the PAC meeting with SMU isn't a play to lure TCU.)

But going to the PAC means propping up the likes of Oregon State and Wazzu, neither of which has good prospects to make the 48. Better for the Big 12 to poach the PAC right now.

The PAC's flirtation with SMU proves the value of proximity to a major airport. But there's probably only room for one Texas private school in a 48-team world. I hope ADJD is thinking every day about how TCU will protect its advantages over SMU and Baylor, even if it has to sacrifice short-term financial gain or fan preferences to do so.

 

[Eight]

I hope and expect ADJD is thinking about how TCU makes it into a 48-school Power 4 megaconference future.

If the future is limited to 24-32 schools with the biggest alumni bases, there is little TCU can do to get in.

If the future is 4 mega-conferences with 64 teams, TCU should be fine.

But if the future is 48, TCU is a bubble team. It has strengthened its resume via performance, facilities, and institutional profile. But it has to think clearly about whom it is competing against on that bubble, and how it wins.

Seeing more schools added to the current Power 5 doesn't help--especially if one is SMU. TCU is way ahead on facilities and performance, but PAC membership for SMU could close that gap quickly. If the PAC is willing to take TCU, you have to ask if keeping SMU down is the best long-term move.

(You also have to wonder if the PAC meeting with SMU isn't a play to lure TCU.)

But going to the PAC means propping up the likes of Oregon State and Wazzu, neither of which has good prospects to make the 48. Better for the Big 12 to poach the PAC right now.

The PAC's flirtation with SMU proves the value of proximity to a major airport. But there's probably only room for one Texas private school in a 48-team world. I hope ADJD is thinking every day about how TCU will protect its advantages over SMU and Baylor, even if it has to sacrifice short-term financial gain or fan preferences to do so.

not sure if i would call love field a major airport

 

[This Ain't Chopped Liver]

This was the big takeaway for me in the video that @peacock posted on p.3. I had no idea about the impact of research dollars in the calculus. I thought it was all reputational snobbery. Someone mentioned that it equated to 9% annual growth in research (less the costs against that of faculty & facilities), but the total research pie is so much bigger than the athletics pie, it seems almost pointless to debate about 2-3M/year differences in media contracts.

I get now why Arizona and Arizona State would be hesitant to jump to the Big 12, despite their recruiting ground being decimated.

The SMU candidacy also makes me wonder about TCU's aspirations on the research/academic front and how the potential for research growth plays into decisions. It would be a long-term play--difficult when the PAC seems on life support and the athletics landscape changes so quickly. Add to that the effect of losing regional rivals for a smaller fan/alumni base, and I guess it doesn't make sense for TCU to look west. But I can see better how college presidents look at things now.

Big opportunity for SMU, though. Maybe the ACC is a better fit for them, but it would be easier to make that move later from the PAC, even if it dies. Also, it seems like the school that stands to lose most from SMU-to-PAC, over time, is Baylor.

I have a strong lean toward TCU having more to lose than Baylor if SMU enters the P5 picture, so I have mixed feeling about SMU getting that entrance to build upon. I am curious as to why you believe it might be Baylor that stands to lose most.

It seems unlikely that two small private schools from DFW would get an invite to a more exclusive group, and SMU has higher academic ranking and many more graduate students and research. TCU is currently unique as the only P5 DFW school and that distinction carried hope to be included in a more exclusive group.

Also, TCU would also have a crosstown P5 competitor recruiting the DFW market; no longer unique.

Baylor is a significantly larger university with R1 research and may be striving for AAU membership. And a darn good athletics program with first rate facilities. So the fear might be that SMU and Baylor get the invites and TCU is out.

Yes, the @peacock post on page 3 was a good breakdown comparison of the P5 and G5 conferences academic rankings, research spending, athletic prowess and dollars and sense when it comes to evaluating leaving a P5 conference for another. Unless or until the PAC is gutted by the Big Ten, I think it is unlikely that a PAC school is leaving for the Big XII.

@JogginFrog I just saw your post #223 above, so we touching on the same point— it is likely only one school, if either, from DFW receiving an invite to a more exclusive group, so SMU is a concern.

 

[JogginFrog]

I have a strong lean toward TCU having more to lose than Baylor if SMU enters the P5 picture, so I have mixed feeling about SMU getting that entrance to build upon. I am curious as to why you believe it might be Baylor that stands to lose most.

It seems unlikely that two small private schools from DFW would get an invite to a more exclusive group, and SMU has higher academic ranking and many more graduate students and research. TCU is currently unique as the only P5 DFW school and that distinction carried hope to be included in a more exclusive group.

Also, TCU would also have a crosstown P5 competitor recruiting the DFW market; no longer unique.

Baylor is a significantly larger university with R1 research and may be striving for AAU membership. And a darn good athletics program with first rate facilities. So the fear might be that SMU and Baylor get the invites and TCU is out.

Yes, the @peacock post on page 3 was a good breakdown comparison of the P5 and G5 conferences academic rankings, research spending, athletic prowess and dollars and sense when it comes to evaluating leaving a P5 conference for another. Unless or until the PAC is gutted by the Big Ten, I think it is unlikely that a PAC school is leaving for the Big XII.

Maybe TCU has more to lose than Baylor if SMU ascends. You make a good case.

So, if you're TCU leadership, do you take steps to keep SMU out of Power 5? Talk meaningfully with the PAC? One big problem with that strategy is that the PAC could still take SMU, given its need for numbers and how it pairs schools as travel partners for scheduling. PAC would rather have both D/FW and Houston markets, so do you talk to Houston about going to PAC as a pair? Nothing in that for Houston. Best case is still to have the Big 12 raid the PAC now and hope that what SMU joins becomes an expanded Mountain West.

 

[82 Frog Fever]

Maybe TCU has more to lose than Baylor if SMU ascends. You make a good case.

So, if you're TCU leadership, do you take steps to keep SMU out of Power 5? Talk meaningfully with the PAC? One big problem with that strategy is that the PAC could still take SMU, given its need for numbers and how it pairs schools as travel partners for scheduling. PAC would rather have both D/FW and Houston markets, so do you talk to Houston about going to PAC as a pair? Nothing in that for Houston. Best case is still to have the Big 12 raid the PAC now and hope that what SMU joins becomes an expanded Mountain West.

For the Pac12 to survive longer term, they would have to pivot & agree to some form of a merging that leaves out schools like Stanford, Cal, WASU, & Or. St..
Otherwise, they’re in a stranglehold with no way to get to 14 without taking Fresno, UNLV, Boise. If any of those teams are added, I guarantee you legacy teams will be calling the B12 for a spot.

 

[JogginFrog]

With what now looks like 6 new schools gaining P5 status, I start to wonder about those who say contraction to 24 or 32 is inevitable. The case for contraction is that most of the value is delivered by a small number of blueblood schools who can re-organize to keep a bigger share of the pie. But they are dependent on media networks that seem nowhere near capacity on inventory; schools on the margins see the net value of investing in big-time athletics; and conferences are motivated to counter every poach with a replacement. Eventually you run out of schools willing to pay the ante, but meanwhile, it looks like the pie keeps expanding rather than the bigs squeezing everybody else out. Not sure how the death blow gets dealt.

 

[Nick Danger]

With what now looks like 6 new schools gaining P5 status, I start to wonder about those who say contraction to 24 or 32 is inevitable. The case for contraction is that most of the value is delivered by a small number of blueblood schools who can re-organize to keep a bigger share of the pie. But they are dependent on media networks that seem nowhere near capacity on inventory; schools on the margins see the net value of investing in big-time athletics; and conferences are motivated to counter every poach with a replacement. Eventually you run out of schools willing to pay the ante, but meanwhile, it looks like the pie keeps expanding rather than the bigs squeezing everybody else out. Not sure how the death blow gets dealt.

On that day in the not-too-distant future when Tarleton State, which at one point was an NAIA school, makes the Top 25 in the AP Poll, then you will know that the Apocalypse is upon us!

 

[froginaustin]

I hope and expect ADJD is thinking about how TCU makes it into a 48-school Power 4 megaconference future.

If the future is limited to 24-32 schools with the biggest alumni bases, there is little TCU can do to get in.

If the future is 4 mega-conferences with 64 teams, TCU should be fine.

But if the future is 48, TCU is a bubble team. It has strengthened its resume via performance, facilities, and institutional profile. But it has to think clearly about whom it is competing against on that bubble, and how it wins.

Seeing more schools added to the current Power 5 doesn't help--especially if one is SMU. TCU is way ahead on facilities and performance, but PAC membership for SMU could close that gap quickly. If the PAC is willing to take TCU, you have to ask if keeping SMU down is the best long-term move.

(You also have to wonder if the PAC meeting with SMU isn't a play to lure TCU.)

But going to the PAC means propping up the likes of Oregon State and Wazzu, neither of which has good prospects to make the 48. Better for the Big 12 to poach the PAC right now.

The PAC's flirtation with SMU proves the value of proximity to a major airport. But there's probably only room for one Texas private school in a 48-team world. I hope ADJD is thinking every day about how TCU will protect its advantages over SMU and Baylor, even if it has to sacrifice short-term financial gain or fan preferences to do so.

You should pass what you're smoking around.

At least I hope that time shows that's the right wise-guy response to this ^^ post.

 

[82 Frog Fever]

With what now looks like 6 new schools gaining P5 status, I start to wonder about those who say contraction to 24 or 32 is inevitable. The case for contraction is that most of the value is delivered by a small number of blueblood schools who can re-organize to keep a bigger share of the pie. But they are dependent on media networks that seem nowhere near capacity on inventory; schools on the margins see the net value of investing in big-time athletics; and conferences are motivated to counter every poach with a replacement. Eventually you run out of schools willing to pay the ante, but meanwhile, it looks like the pie keeps expanding rather than the bigs squeezing everybody else out. Not sure how the death blow gets dealt.

Death blows only happen when enough premier schools leave without a decent replacement.
I only see 2 opportunities for a “death blow” in the next couple years.
1) the B10 decides to expand further with some combo of Oregon, Wash., Cal., Stanford.
With Kevin Warren leaving, this is doubtful and who knows what the next commissioner will do.
2) the Pac12 media contract comes in much below $30m (B12 $31.6m). This is also doubtful, but possible.

 

[ECM]

I have a strong lean toward TCU having more to lose than Baylor if SMU enters the P5 picture, so I have mixed feeling about SMU getting that entrance to build upon. I am curious as to why you believe it might be Baylor that stands to lose most.

It seems unlikely that two small private schools from DFW would get an invite to a more exclusive group, and SMU has higher academic ranking and many more graduate students and research. TCU is currently unique as the only P5 DFW school and that distinction carried hope to be included in a more exclusive group.

Also, TCU would also have a crosstown P5 competitor recruiting the DFW market; no longer unique.

Baylor is a significantly larger university with R1 research and may be striving for AAU membership. And a darn good athletics program with first rate facilities. So the fear might be that SMU and Baylor get the invites and TCU is out.

Yes, the @peacock post on page 3 was a good breakdown comparison of the P5 and G5 conferences academic rankings, research spending, athletic prowess and dollars and sense when it comes to evaluating leaving a P5 conference for another. Unless or until the PAC is gutted by the Big Ten, I think it is unlikely that a PAC school is leaving for the Big XII.

@JogginFrog I just saw your post #223 above, so we touching on the same point— it is likely only one school, if either, from DFW receiving an invite to a more exclusive group, so SMU is a concern.

Man I did *not* expect to read this a month after TCU appeared in the national championship game

Baylor has no chance of ever moving up in the hierarchy, and a very good chance of falling behind. They're a fundamentalist Baptist university who has been involved in 2 of 3 biggest scandals in college sports over the past 20 years. You can imagine how other university presidents feel towards them.

If SMU receives its well-deserved (I'm trolling) promotion to the P5, it will mostly be at Baylor's (and, to a lesser extent, Tech's and Okie State's) expense. We will keep DFW recruits home who want to play in a power conference and be showered with NIL money -- my understanding is that Baylor and OSU are far behind on NIL and desperately trying to catch up. College sports are becoming pro sports, and a lot of guys won't want to play in small markets like Waco and Lubbock

 

[Creeperfrog]

Man I did *not* expect to read this a month after TCU appeared in the national championship game

Baylor has no chance of ever moving up in the hierarchy, and a very good chance of falling behind. They're a fundamentalist Baptist university who has been involved in 2 of 3 biggest scandals in college sports over the past 20 years. You can imagine how other university presidents feel towards them.

If SMU receives its well-deserved (I'm trolling) promotion to the P5, it will mostly be at Baylor's (and, to a lesser extent, Tech's and Okie State's) expense. We will keep DFW recruits home who want to play in a power conference and be showered with NIL money -- my understanding is that Baylor and OSU are far behind on NIL and desperately trying to catch up. College sports are becoming pro sports, and a lot of guys won't want to play in small markets like Waco and Lubbock

Hey man, I miss playing halo with you. I've thought ab posting this but I have actually stayed at your place in Dallas and I don't think so, but you could have stayed at my place ft worth. I'm sure Jessie and Jeff say what up. Haven't played halo in forever, but it was fun man. You were much better than me. Happy to see you rep Dallas and be a friend of Fort worth

 

[Creeperfrog]

I'm really sorry, but I can't remember your name but you were really cool to hang out with, you respected ft worth, you were proud of smu, and even apologized for your friend who had to wear a diaper at night. I didn't really like the guy, but I did like you as a reasonable person. I'm that guy who lived in the back room where the door opened up to the fire pit we installed

 

[CountryFrog]

Man I did *not* expect to read this a month after TCU appeared in the national championship game

Baylor has no chance of ever moving up in the hierarchy, and a very good chance of falling behind. They're a fundamentalist Baptist university who has been involved in 2 of 3 biggest scandals in college sports over the past 20 years. You can imagine how other university presidents feel towards them.

If SMU receives its well-deserved (I'm trolling) promotion to the P5, it will mostly be at Baylor's (and, to a lesser extent, Tech's and Okie State's) expense. We will keep DFW recruits home who want to play in a power conference and be showered with NIL money -- my understanding is that Baylor and OSU are far behind on NIL and desperately trying to catch up. College sports are becoming pro sports, and a lot of guys won't want to play in small markets like Waco and Lubbock

I don't think that post you quoted is reflective of very many TCU fans. I don't think SMU joining the PAC 12 will have much impact at all on TCU.

Now if they were joining the Big 12, Big Ten, or SEC then it would be a different story. But the PAC and the ACC don't move the needle too much in the state of Texas despite their P5 status.

 

[The Artist Formerly Known as PhormerPhrog]

What's going on here? This turn into Grindr?

 

[Boomhauer]

 

[TCUdirtbag]

I have a strong lean toward TCU having more to lose than Baylor if SMU enters the P5 picture, so I have mixed feeling about SMU getting that entrance to build upon. I am curious as to why you believe it might be Baylor that stands to lose most.

It seems unlikely that two small private schools from DFW would get an invite to a more exclusive group, and SMU has higher academic ranking and many more graduate students and research. TCU is currently unique as the only P5 DFW school and that distinction carried hope to be included in a more exclusive group.

Also, TCU would also have a crosstown P5 competitor recruiting the DFW market; no longer unique.

Baylor is a significantly larger university with R1 research and may be striving for AAU membership. And a darn good athletics program with first rate facilities. So the fear might be that SMU and Baylor get the invites and TCU is out.

Yes, the @peacock post on page 3 was a good breakdown comparison of the P5 and G5 conferences academic rankings, research spending, athletic prowess and dollars and sense when it comes to evaluating leaving a P5 conference for another. Unless or until the PAC is gutted by the Big Ten, I think it is unlikely that a PAC school is leaving for the Big XII.

@JogginFrog I just saw your post #223 above, so we touching on the same point— it is likely only one school, if either, from DFW receiving an invite to a more exclusive group, so SMU is a concern.

Your perspective here and in other posts is not based in the reality of the business of college sports. You’re mostly looking at the wrong metrics and incorrectly interpreting the others.

1. SMU, even with a desperate invite from the P12, is decades behind TCU. Their “better academic rating” is marginal too anyone outside the alumni bases. You mention grad student numbers but the real metric is undergrads. They have far fewer and no intent to expand they. Thus a much smaller fan base with little prospect of changing. Their athletics spending is abysmal. Just like their results. SMU in the Pac will not win titles, will not make noise, etc., because they are not invested in big time athletics.

2. Baylor ain’t getting AAU status. They have no medical enterprise and it’s nearly impossible to get there without one these days unless you have a gazillion dollar endowment and world class engineering and science facilities with world renowned researchers (I.e. Rice, Cal, etc.).

 

[HG73]

Your perspective here and in other posts is not based in the reality of the business of college sports. You’re mostly looking at the wrong metrics and incorrectly interpreting the others.

1. SMU, even with a desperate invite from the P12, is decades behind TCU. Their “better academic rating” is marginal too anyone outside the alumni bases. You mention grad student numbers but the real metric is undergrads. They have far fewer and no intent to expand they. Thus a much smaller fan base with little prospect of changing. Their athletics spending is abysmal. Just like their results. SMU in the Pac will not win titles, will not make noise, etc., because they are not invested in big time athletics.

2. Baylor ain’t getting AAU status. They have no medical enterprise and it’s nearly impossible to get there without one these days unless you have a gazillion dollar endowment and world class engineering and science facilities with world renowned researchers (I.e. Rice, Cal, etc.).

Baylor Hospital?

 

[82 Frog Fever]

I'm really sorry, but I can't remember your name but you were really cool to hang out with, you respected ft worth, you were proud of smu, and even apologized for your friend who had to wear a diaper at night. I didn't really like the guy, but I did like you as a reasonable person. I'm that guy who lived in the back room where the door opened up to the fire pit we installed

Well done. That’s as creepy as it gets.