I think FSU would lose to Oregon, Bama, Baylor, and TCU. But until they lose I have a hard time putting them behind any of them. They scheduled well and won their games. They shouldn't be penalized because (a) their conference isn't as good as ours, or (b) they didn't blow people out. One loss and they are right there with Ohio State on the outside looking in, though.
I think Miss St is a good football team. But their OOC sucks just like Baylor's, so they don't deserve a lot of credibility now that they slipped up any more than Baylor does. So both of them go toward the back of my 1-loss teams.
Ohio State gets credit for scheduling Va Tech IMO. That has been a good team until the last 2-3 season. Their intent was good, as evidenced by their future schedules. So, they don't get penalized for OOC scheduling, but they should get hammered for dropping a game to a bad Va Tech team. While the B1G is pretty dang weak, they do have to play a B1G CCG against one of the other best teams from their league. One more good game = another chance to slip up that the B12 doesn't have to face. Add all that up and I think they should be equal to Miss St and Baylor who play in better leagues but intentionally lightened their loads by weak OOC games.
Oregon's loss was bad, but they're pretty good. One loss and they should be in, especially after their CCG.
Bama scheduled well, plays a tough SEC West, and a tough CCG. One loss and they're in.
TCU scheduled a fairly respectable, middle-of-the-road B1G team OOC. We should be treated accordingly. It isn't like last year when we played LSU or our future schedules where we play Ohio State. But it's leaps and bounds better than Miss St and Baylor scheduling three auto-wins. Plus--and this is our strongest asset--so far our only loss was a fluky, referee-assisted, come-from-behind loss to another team banging on the door of the playoff. If we make it to 11-1, we've done everything we were supposed to do. Beat all the teams we were supposed to beat, and gave everyone hell. If we get left out, it better be because 4 other teams accomplished more--not merely because we happened to lose to another one of the teams with some semblance of argument for inclusion.
So, if everyone finishes with the same number of losses, I have:
FSU
Bama
Oregon
TCU
Ohio State
Miss St
Baylor
BUT we aren't at the end of the year yet. I doubt all these teams remain one-loss teams. One loss by any of them drops them out for good.