Where do we end up...? Poll

[Longhorn from Aledo]

PAC does not want TT, OSU, KSU, and WV academically. They don't want Kansas and baylor for obvious reasons, and not just because they are going on probation. We are the best fit for them if they want in the Central Time Zone. Or they can die a slow agonizing death in the dark.

Kinda like when we got into the Big12, we were the best available.

How do you know the Pac12 doesn't want religious schools or academic underachievers, whatever that means. The new p12 commish needs to sit Berkeley and Stanford down and read them the riot act. I see all sorts of strange bedfellows in today's conference groupings. We are all Americans so grow up. It will be for the best for the Pac to take TCU, Tech, OSU, Baylor/KSU. They will need to move fast. At least the old P12 commish is gone, he was a dolt.

 

[BrewingFrog]

We have a big airport. Close by. Distance isn't a huge problem for most large programs. Fly in, fly out.

Oh, and shouldn't there be another category? "Other"

 

[flyfishingfrog]

That is the perfect scenario for the Big and SEC. But that won't be this go-round.

This realignment could go as follows:

I believe it is likely that the PAC-12 will be very slow to expand since there are no sensible geographic fits with the B12 "leftover" eight. The PAC12 will at first play defense to blunt any try for the B12 to grab the Mountain Time Zone teams: CO, UT AZ and ASU.

There may be some movement by the BiG to "keep up" with the SEC at 16 but their options are Kansas and nothing else - sorry WVU. They very well could go for another contiguous option and pull UVA. Missou isn't going to leave the mega bucks of the SEC to join a conference that they should be in! I don't see the BiG going into Texas/Oklahoma with the available schools.

The ACC is relatively safe at 14+ND 5 games per year. Maybe/long shot WVU could be a "shotgun marriage" (they did let in Louisville.) ND will not cave and join football full-time with the ACC. This will continue to be a limitation in filling-up that conference to 16 members.

There are 65 Power teams today. 16X4 plus ND would work and nobody would be without. But it appears that in the end there could be one bridesmaid - I believe that's Iowa State.

If the non-SEC conferences are slow to add-on and want to stay status quo, The B12 expands to 12 - unlikely to get the Pac12 four schools above - and then they raid the American/Mtn West. Candidates would be from Cinci, Memphis, UCF, USF, Houston, Boise (fb only) and BYU (fb only.) - No to SMU, Tulsa, NexMex, ColSt and Wyoming. The Big 12ers will do the picking not the AAC folks.

Then the issue will be: can the B12 survive with a reasonable TV contract and Power Conference status - We can't survive the Big East-like downgrade to "Group of 5/6" and maintain our athletic budgets. Also, this downgrade would rob TCU of any hope of regular national playoffs spots (assuming 12 slots annually.)

I was told the 4 super conferences of 16 teams idea is basically dead out of the gate now because the top tier teams don't see 64 teams they want to share money with

There is a real discussion about creating a top tier league that sits above everyone and has zero involvement with the rest of college football.

 

[flyfishingfrog]

AAC/MWC is just a stupid answer. Big12 would poach with the bigger name and contracts.

It is more likely that A&M says scheiss money we want to make the playoffs and voluntarily leaves the SEC to rejoin Big12 than us joining the MWC again.

Aggy is never leaving the SEC

 

[Longhorn from Aledo]

This is going to work out perfectly for everyone except one school. Playing in the P16 will be an easier path than going through Norman or Tuscaloosa. I think this will be a good thing for all of the B12 teams except one. Let's hope that TCU can get this done. Personally, I would like to see the Texas schools plus OSU/KSU in the Pac. The one school I think deserves to be dumped is Kansas because of their record of cheating in basketball and their lack of having anything else.

 

[netty2424]

How do you know the Pac12 doesn't want religious schools or academic underachievers, whatever that means. The new p12 commish needs to sit Berkeley and Stanford down and read them the riot act. I see all sorts of strange bedfellows in today's conference groupings. We are all Americans so grow up. It will be for the best for the Pac to take TCU, Tech, OSU, Baylor/KSU. They will need to move fast. At least the old P12 commish is gone, he was a dolt.

The religion and research points are just regurgitated talking points anymore. These conferences, outside of SEC and maybe the BIG can’t afford to be picky. It’s all about survival these days a d the PAC is barley hanging on as it is.

 

[Hoosierfrog]

USC was a Methodist affiliated school until the 50s…

Of course California was still sane at that time.

 

[BedfordFrog68]

If we get left behind, the next guy we will be able to hire when GP decides it’s time will take a lot less and so will his staff

Getting left behind will be the optimum time for GP to retire....

 

[flyfishingfrog]

Getting left behind will be the optimum time for GP to retire....

Pretty confident he will retire at the end of his contract regardless of what happens - that was the point of his last extension and why I think there have not been any more since then.

 

[HG73]

How do you know the Pac12 doesn't want religious schools or academic underachievers, whatever that means. The new p12 commish needs to sit Berkeley and Stanford down and read them the riot act. I see all sorts of strange bedfellows in today's conference groupings. We are all Americans so grow up. It will be for the best for the Pac to take TCU, Tech, OSU, Baylor/KSU. They will need to move fast. At least the old P12 commish is gone, he was a dolt.

Not disagreeing with you, but the PAC doesn't need to expand and none of the leftovers add anything to their TV contract. And all the conferences (except SEC) are extremely snobbish on academic standing. None of the leftovers have good academics except us, ISU and baylor. And the PAC is not taking baylor. Ever.
PAC can get into the central time zone with us and ISU. I think that's their best move. Or just stand pat and die a slow death in the dark.

 

[KillerFrog InD KitchenSink]

Not disagreeing with you, but the PAC doesn't need to expand and none of the leftovers add anything to their TV contract. And all the conferences (except SEC) are extremely snobbish on academic standing. None of the leftovers have good academics except us, ISU and baylor. And the PAC is not taking baylor. Ever.
PAC can get into the central time zone with us and ISU. I think that's their best move. Or just stand pat and die a slow death in the dark.

The Pac-12 is in a not so great position. They already have the smallest of the P5 pie and other issues well documented. How does expanding with any combination of B12 teams alleviate those issues? Yeah they would get into the central time zone for the next round of TV negotiation and I guess strength in numbers at a time of bigger conferences, but in the end I can't imagine any model resulting in more money per school, which is the sine gua non for expansion.

 

[KillerFrog InD KitchenSink]

do you think the big 12 payout stays the same without texas and ou?

No, but why is that relevant? I'm talking about the idea of the PAC-12 voting to expand. If expanding decreases the payouts for the current schools, why would they vote to expand? Any expansion model has to include increased revenue per school, or at least close to break even. .

 

[Eight]

No, but why is that relevant? I'm talking about the idea of the PAC-12 voting to expand. If expanding decreases the payouts for the current schools, why would they vote to expand? Any expansion model has to include increased revenue per school, or at least close to break even. .

defer to gary's, but it would seem you are making this based upon the logic the pac contract staying the same going forward.

 

[Longhorn from Aledo]

The Pac-12 is in a not so great position. They already have the smallest of the P5 pie and other issues well documented. How does expanding with any combination of B12 teams alleviate those issues? Yeah they would get into the central time zone for the next round of TV negotiation and I guess strength in numbers at a time of bigger conferences, but in the end I can't imagine any model resulting in more money per school, which is the sine gua non for expansion.

No, it's not going to increase the payout but it may. The Texas market is coveted for football/sports viewing and recruiting. Most importantly it will keep the payout near the same for the Pac.... Will TCU have to take a pay cut? Probably but it's better than the Mountain West. Many of these teams want visibility in the Texas market and Sundance Square is a great place for pre-game parties, etc.... The Cali schools will want in. Manhatten, Kansas not so much. Don't screw this up.

 

[KillerFrog InD KitchenSink]

defer to gary's, but it would seem you are making this based upon the logic the pac contract staying the same going forward.

Yes, or more precisely that the new teams wouldn't add enough revenue potential to make it make sense. Obviously that is something for their consultants/leadership, but intuitively without UT or OU, a PAC-16 seems tougher to make the numbers work. Almost all expansions need the bottom line to make sense (unless it is for survivial/logistics) and with the assets available for acquisition, I think that could be tough for the PAC-12 to do.

 

[Eight]

Yes, or more precisely that the new teams wouldn't add enough revenue potential to make it make sense. Obviously that is something for their consultants/leadership, but intuitively without UT or OU, a PAC-16 seems tougher to make the numbers work. Almost all expansions need the bottom line to make sense (unless it is for survivial/logistics) and with the assets available for acquisition, I think that could be tough for the PAC-12 to do.

if you haven't noticed, if texas and ou do this everyone left outside the sec, big 10, and acc are in survival mode

 

[bp4tcu]

SEC

When Texas realizes they'll be unimportant chum in the conference, and backs out.

There's no way that's happening. If you're paying attention, you realize this is already a done deal.

And LOL at those saying we'll stay in the Big 12. There is no Big 12 without TX and OU. This conference is toast.

 

[LVH]

We will let let you guys win in September if you lend us a hand into the Big 12 lifeboat…deal?

A big 12 without Texas, Kansas, WVU and OU is not a power conference. No idea why SMU would want to join so badly.

 

[bp4tcu]

PAC does not want TT, OSU, KSU, and WV academically. They don't want Kansas and baylor for obvious reasons, and not just because they are going on probation. We are the best fit for them if they want in the Central Time Zone. Or they can die a slow agonizing death in the dark.

Kinda like when we got into the Big12, we were the best available.

This is so wrong, mainly that we're a better fit for the Pac than Tech or OSU.

It was made known during the last shuffle that the Pac does not want private religious schools, as loose as ours may be. The Pac 12 was literally on Texas Tech's campus touring the campus and facility, it was a done deal until UT screwed them. Academics are not an issue, tv markets are the concer. Say what you want about OSU and Tech, but they're not the academic cesspool we like to think they are, especially Tech. They've made big moves over the past 10-15 years. Tech will bring DFW and Houston markets far more than we will.

We are no better a fit for the Pac than Tech. We're just not.

 

[KillerFrog InD KitchenSink]

if you haven't noticed, if texas and ou do this everyone left outside the sec, big 10, and acc are in survival mode

Why the PAC-12 would be in survival mode? I get that they are the weakest conference, but how does adding 4 Big 12 teams change that? And they could add those teams at any time, anyway, so time isn't of the essesnse. If they are going to make a move, it has to improve their bottom line. Maybe there is a model for them that does that, but I can also make the argument that a weakened but viable Big 12 helps them.