The Spun: College Football Analysts Predict Michigan vs. TCU Score

[hfhmilkman]

Yeah, let’s just get the players combine numbers and physical measurements. Then we don’t even have to play the game on the field anymore. So dumb.

It’s a team sport and many times the team with the lesser perceived talent or physically gifted players has prevailed. Much life goes into deciding these games than draft ability.

If you go by AP preseason top 4 for filling out the NC brackets, the hit rate is almost 50%. The preseason national rankings of the 8 winners are 5, 3,6,4,1,2,3,5. 5 of the 8 NC's were in the preseason top 4. Regardless of the pre season rankings, every single one of those teams was loaded with NFL players. I already mentioned the Ohio State players still playing in the NFL. LSU, which is the #6 team had Burrow and Chase. The other team outside the pre season top25, 2021 Georgia has 5 defensive starters drafted in the 1st round.

Talent absolutely prevails. If I had to put my life on picking a team to win the NC, it would Georgia. So yes. Combine measurements are very useful for picking winners. Perhaps not when two giants collide. But it is very useful for picking winners. I will be the first to be rooting for TCU if they get past my team. It would be great for college football for there to be such a NC. Then again there is reality. My major is Physics. My favorite subject was Thermodynamics. I loved it because you could derive the gas laws from statistical mechanics. Boltzmann was my favorite historical scientist because of his discovery of statistical mechanics. Yes, there is a possibility that all of the air in your room will randomly exit. But it will functionally not happen. That is what it is like playing Georgia when you do not have the talent to stay in the game. Perhaps if the college game had the NFL clock that kept on ticking after a made first down. But the college game is too long for an overmatched team in the NC format.

 

[hfhmilkman]

The point I’m trying to make by posting the statistics is the 2014 TCU was playing at a completely level than Michigan State or Washington or whatever random team found themselves completely overmatched in the playoffs. Those teams failures aren’t applicable here because they were simply not as good as 2014 TCU. 2014 TCU would have been the exception to the rule about any sort of draft rankings or whatever.

It’s all hypothetical so we’ll never know. Nothing is every going to change your opinion or our opinion.

2014 TCU was special. I like 2022 TCU, but I have serious doubts about their ability to actually compete in this playoff field. I have no doubts about that 2014 TCU team.

And in regards to Boykin, he was an UDFA because of off the field issues. Yet as a rookie he not only made the Seahawks roster, but locked up the back up QB spot behind Russell Wilson. So it wasn’t your typical UDFA situation.

But it was not just Boykin. Let us presume Boykin was a Baker Mayfield type player minus head case. 2014 TCU is still short a dozen NFL players. Who blocks Joey Bosa. Who stops Taylor Decker from road grading someone so that Elliot does not run for 80? Who stops Michael Thomas from high pointing the football?

But speaking of TCU, I will go out on a limb and state I think the 2022 version is better. I think the 2022 TCU has a real defense. 2022 TCU has two potential 1st round picks. I think Quentin Johnson is a better receiving prospect than Josh Doctson. The 2014 team had no one like your corner. Plus, I think Dugan is a better QB. Dugan compared to Boykin is bigger, just as fast, and has an NFL arm. Unlike Boykin who was a head case, Dugan is the heart and soul of the TCU football team and has shown he will go through walls to win. If I had to bet TCU 2022 verses TCU 2014, I pick Dugan and the 2022 team. Perhaps TCU's cap is a like a Baker Mayfield led OU. But that is certainly good enough to beat Michigan.

 

[Wexahu]

But it was not just Boykin. Let us presume Boykin was a Baker Mayfield type player minus head case. 2014 TCU is still short a dozen NFL players. Who blocks Joey Bosa. Who stops Taylor Decker from road grading someone so that Elliot does not run for 80? Who stops Michael Thomas from high pointing the football?

But speaking of TCU, I will go out on a limb and state I think the 2022 version is better. I think the 2022 TCU has a real defense. 2022 TCU has two potential 1st round picks. I think Quentin Johnson is a better receiving prospect than Josh Doctson. The 2014 team had no one like your corner. Plus, I think Dugan is a better QB. Dugan compared to Boykin is bigger, just as fast, and has an NFL arm. Unlike Boykin who was a head case, Dugan is the heart and soul of the TCU football team and has shown he will go through walls to win. If I had to bet TCU 2022 verses TCU 2014, I pick Dugan and the 2022 team. Perhaps TCU's cap is a like a Baker Mayfield led OU. But that is certainly good enough to beat Michigan.

I don’t disagree with all your points, but that 2014 TCU defense was better than this version because it was better in the front 6-7. We’ve pieced together a decent defense but there are holes. 2014 didn’t really have any, all three levels were good if not very good.

The difference between this year and others as far as our chances is that I don’t think Georgia, Ohio State or Michigan are as good as the very best teams of past years. There is a bunch of NFL talent on those teams like always but it’s younger and less experienced. So we’ve got a chance, although admittedly beating UGA would be a huge upset.

 

[Real Frog]

But it was not just Boykin. Let us presume Boykin was a Baker Mayfield type player minus head case. 2014 TCU is still short a dozen NFL players. Who blocks Joey Bosa. Who stops Taylor Decker from road grading someone so that Elliot does not run for 80? Who stops Michael Thomas from high pointing the football?

But speaking of TCU, I will go out on a limb and state I think the 2022 version is better. I think the 2022 TCU has a real defense. 2022 TCU has two potential 1st round picks. I think Quentin Johnson is a better receiving prospect than Josh Doctson. The 2014 team had no one like your corner. Plus, I think Dugan is a better QB. Dugan compared to Boykin is bigger, just as fast, and has an NFL arm. Unlike Boykin who was a head case, Dugan is the heart and soul of the TCU football team and has shown he will go through walls to win. If I had to bet TCU 2022 verses TCU 2014, I pick Dugan and the 2022 team. Perhaps TCU's cap is a like a Baker Mayfield led OU. But that is certainly good enough to beat Michigan.

This is the same stuff from ESPN and every other site that is outside our footprint. Most on here are well educated college football fans, they watch all conferences, not just the Big 12. There is major respect here for the Big 10, or Ohio State & Michigan and SEC, but it is not all encompassing like it is for fans of those conferences. It would be impossible for a fan from the Big 10 to understand how every time you make an argument, all statistics and simple logic go out the window, and you rely on media driven domination, and hypothetical matchups against players you know in a snapshot.

 

[hfhmilkman]

This is the same stuff from ESPN and every other site that is outside our footprint. Most on here are well educated college football fans, they watch all conferences, not just the Big 12. There is major respect here for the Big 10, or Ohio State & Michigan and SEC, but it is not all encompassing like it is for fans of those conferences. It would be impossible for a fan from the Big 10 to understand how every time you make an argument, all statistics and simple logic go out the window, and you rely on media driven domination, and hypothetical matchups against players you know in a snapshot.

I would counter who wins sports betting? Egghead PHD's in Math or Stats or people who live and breath football? Locke always beats Rousseau. The last eight NC winners make it clear to me there is a direct correlation to number of NFL caliber players and winning the NC. This is not an argument about conferences. All one has to do is count the Sunday capable players on a team to figure out odds.

Now there are some trends that may loosen the grip of the bagmen networks that are the lifeblood of the current elite. NIL has made paying players pseudo-legal and allow for bigger fish to step in. A periodic anonymous transfer of cash is no longer enough. The original SEC teams are not the wealthiest. Texas, Texas A&M, USC, Miami, etc are making a play. There may be a diffusion of talent as any booster may be willing to pay the big dollars to get "THAT" player. Alabama, Georgia, and OSU will not have the funds to corner the market. On the flip side this may separate the divide of all the other schools that do not have big booster networks. What happens to Iowa, Indiana, and Wisconsin? There have been comments already about the Big10 being unbalanced. NIL will make it worse as any player who shows value, can immediately follow dollars for someone willing to pay. You can't even build a team with diamonds in the rough as your players get mined by the money teams.

 

[Hoosierfrog]

Not that it has any bearing on this game, but Harbaugh is 0-2 vs little ole TCU…

 

[Hoosierfrog]

I would counter who wins sports betting? Egghead PHD's in Math or Stats or people who live and breath football? Locke always beats Rousseau. The last eight NC winners make it clear to me there is a direct correlation to number of NFL caliber players and winning the NC. This is not an argument about conferences. All one has to do is count the Sunday capable players on a team to figure out odds.

Now there are some trends that may loosen the grip of the bagmen networks that are the lifeblood of the current elite. NIL has made paying players pseudo-legal and allow for bigger fish to step in. A periodic anonymous transfer of cash is no longer enough. The original SEC teams are not the wealthiest. Texas, Texas A&M, USC, Miami, etc are making a play. There may be a diffusion of talent as any booster may be willing to pay the big dollars to get "THAT" player. Alabama, Georgia, and OSU will not have the funds to corner the market. On the flip side this may separate the divide of all the other schools that do not have big booster networks. What happens to Iowa, Indiana, and Wisconsin? There have been comments already about the Big10 being unbalanced. NIL will make it worse as any player who shows value, can immediately follow dollars for someone willing to pay. You can't even build a team with diamonds in the rough as your players get mined by the money teams.

It’s good you have shown up here. Between you and Wexahu all the questions the world has ever had can now be answered with 100% certainty…

 

[hfhmilkman]

I don’t disagree with all your points, but that 2014 TCU defense was better than this version because it was better in the front 6-7. We’ve pieced together a decent defense but there are holes. 2014 didn’t really have any, all three levels were good if not very good.

The difference between this year and others as far as our chances is that I don’t think Georgia, Ohio State or Michigan are as good as the very best teams of past years. There is a bunch of NFL talent on those teams like always but it’s younger and less experienced. So we’ve got a chance, although admittedly beating UGA would be a huge upset.

I would argue that any defense that gave up 60 points in a game, and 30 or more 4 times has some serious flaws. I think the 2022 team is better equipped because one you have a shutdown corner and two you have a hybrid. The 2014 team perhaps because the evolution of the game did not have the hybrid figured out. I could be wrong. I am not Patterson expert. The reason why teams love the hybrid is they hedge the run and pass support. Patterson just seemed to concede playing an extra safety. In my opinion NFL defenses do not have to concede this because they can find 240 pound linebackers who can run a 4.5 40 with a corresponding shuttle. That is why the blue bloods win so often. They do not have to concede as much if they already have a minor league NFL roster. But if you are not playing Alabama but Purdue, a hybrid is a great optimization. Purdue is probably not going to run the ball down your throat.

Like I said in another post, I like Max Dugan and what he brings. If TCU is hanging around in the 4th quarter, he can just go finish the game. That is a trait you cannot quantify. Dugan can beat the statisticians because he is a singular individual who has traits that cannot be quantified. Regardless of defense, that is TCU's superpower.

 

[Wexahu]

It’s good you have shown up here. Between you and Wexahu all the questions the world has ever had can now be answered with 100% certainty…

You're sure contributing a lot here.

 

[French Frog]

Oh well, we are back to being "Little Sisters of the Poor!"

 

[Wexahu]

I would argue that any defense that gave up 60 points in a game, and 30 or more 4 times has some serious flaws. I think the 2022 team is better equipped because one you have a shutdown corner and two you have a hybrid. The 2014 team perhaps because the evolution of the game did not have the hybrid figured out. I could be wrong. I am not Patterson expert. The reason why teams love the hybrid is they hedge the run and pass support. Patterson just seemed to concede playing an extra safety. In my opinion NFL defenses do not have to concede this because they can find 240 pound linebackers who can run a 4.5 40 with a corresponding shuttle. That is why the blue bloods win so often. They do not have to concede as much if they already have a minor league NFL roster. But if you are not playing Alabama but Purdue, a hybrid is a great optimization. Purdue is probably not going to run the ball down your throat.

Like I said in another post, I like Max Dugan and what he brings. If TCU is hanging around in the 4th quarter, he can just go finish the game. That is a trait you cannot quantify. Dugan can beat the statisticians because he is a singular individual who has traits that cannot be quantified. Regardless of defense, that is TCU's superpower.

We were WAY more uptempo in 2014, so naturally the scores were going to be higher. And the 60+ game was kind of fluky, we just ran out of gas in an exhausting game. That defense gave up some points but it also forced 40 turnovers. I know some degree of turnovers is luck but it was a very solid unit in all three lines of the defense, and forces a ton of negative plays. They were just better than this unit, you can disagree if you want but we've all watched every play this year and I don't think any Frog fan would say this unit is better. Offensively, I think most Frog fans overrate the 2014 team. It was explosive but also had some stretches of really poor play that almost burned us a few times. More out of control than this team's offense, and very reliant on tempo.

Bottom line is, as a fan I was more concerned about our offense in 2014 going into big games like this, this year I'm more concerned about our defense.

 

[Eight]

You're sure regurgitating lot here than 99% of this board doesn't care about and heard before.

fixed it for you

 

[06DallasFrog]

I hope our first drive against Michigan is up-tempo... maybe even show them the super wide splits. It was always fun to watch the defense look confused.

 

[An-Cap Frog]

Again, if you believe TCU was a NC team in 2014, look at what the TCU players on that team did in the NFL verses the other NC teams. Name a National Champion team that did not have scores of NFL talent. I don't know how good or strong the Big12 was in 2014. There is a claim that Boykin may have been a better QB. If he was so good how come he was an NFL undrafted free agent? What about the receivers, the RB's, the lines? Now compare to a NC team. Look at Boykin's NFL draft profile? Inferior size, inferior arm strength, adapted to a gimmick offense, and legal issues last. And why not build an NFL franchise around an air raid route tree? Because it does not work against superior athletes.

This is the meta game of why spread and air raid became popular. Both offenses do not require an elite recruiting program to build a successful season. You only need a QB who can run the offense and a few skill players who get it. Look at the NFL drafts for 2015, and 2016. Doctson was the 22nd pick as a receiver in 2016. Dawson as a ILB was the 99th pick 2015, and you had a tackle who was the 183rd in 2015. And you are saying that TCU could match a team stacked with NFL prospects? There is a reason why OSU, Clemson and Alabama have represented half of the positions since the NC format has gone to 4. In fact you could safely pick 2 to 3 representatives before the season began. This may change with NIL as other schools are attempting to buy their way in. If 2014 TCU had a played a NC from 2014 to 2022, it would have been the same. The other program would have two months to tweak their defense and leverage their massive advantage in athletic ability. Poor Boykin with his 4.7 40 speed would be matched up by an entire linebacker corp of 4.5 40 monsters all bigger and more agile than him. Joey Bosa, the lesser of the brothers has a better shuttle time as DE than Boykin. That is who is setting the edge on a designed QB run. This is not an OSU thing. It is the case with every National Champion. At the very top of college football, games are won by recruiting.

Tim Tebow was a 2X NC and only had a cup of coffee in the NFL...

 

[An-Cap Frog]

I would argue that any defense that gave up 60 points in a game, and 30 or more 4 times has some serious flaws. I think the 2022 team is better equipped because one you have a shutdown corner and two you have a hybrid. The 2014 team perhaps because the evolution of the game did not have the hybrid figured out. I could be wrong. I am not Patterson expert. The reason why teams love the hybrid is they hedge the run and pass support. Patterson just seemed to concede playing an extra safety. In my opinion NFL defenses do not have to concede this because they can find 240 pound linebackers who can run a 4.5 40 with a corresponding shuttle. That is why the blue bloods win so often. They do not have to concede as much if they already have a minor league NFL roster. But if you are not playing Alabama but Purdue, a hybrid is a great optimization. Purdue is probably not going to run the ball down your throat.

Like I said in another post, I like Max Dugan and what he brings. If TCU is hanging around in the 4th quarter, he can just go finish the game. That is a trait you cannot quantify. Dugan can beat the statisticians because he is a singular individual who has traits that cannot be quantified. Regardless of defense, that is TCU's superpower.

That 60 was like was playing Tennessee this year. Do you think that 'Bama has a bad defense when they gave up 52 to the Vols? Nope, they have a top 5 defense. It's just that Tennessee had a great offense this year.

 

[HornyWartyToad]

I think the huge thing being overlooked here is overall player health. The knee-jerk reaction to that topic is always, "Oh, everybody's banged up at the end of the year it's all the same." NOPE.
Michigan had their OFF week in late October, then continued to rest up vs. State, Rutgers, and Nebraska in consecutive weeks.
TCU didn't get a week off in conference play at all, and had to play some of their toughest games on the back end.
Anybody who watched Kendre Miller early in the season could see he was only at about 75% against KSU in the championship game. Ditto for QJ, DD, and Max. They were all running on fumes, and I'm guessing that probably the majority of the starters felt that way. With a month off to rest and get healthy, I expect we are going to see the entire team play with a level of speed we haven't seen since early in the year- especially if Davis and Johnston are 100%. I hope Michigan is preparing for the team they saw vs. Kansas St. because if they are, they will be shocked how fast and physical we are when fully healthy.

 

[An-Cap Frog]

We were WAY more uptempo in 2014, so naturally the scores were going to be higher. And the 60+ game was kind of fluky, we just ran out of gas in an exhausting game. That defense gave up some points but it also forced 40 turnovers. I know some degree of turnovers is luck but it was a very solid unit in all three lines of the defense, and forces a ton of negative plays. They were just better than this unit, you can disagree if you want but we've all watched every play this year and I don't think any Frog fan would say this unit is better. Offensively, I think most Frog fans overrate the 2014 team. It was explosive but also had some stretches of really poor play that almost burned us a few times. More out of control than this team's offense, and very reliant on tempo.

Bottom line is, as a fan I was more concerned about our offense in 2014 going into big games like this, this year I'm more concerned about our defense.

That 2014 team was ready to steamroll whoever they played in the post season. That was probably Gary's best (talent + production) defensive team and they had an offense to boot (82 points versus Tech). They also gave Minnesota their worst loss of the season.

 

[Hoosierfrog]

You're sure contributing a lot here.

Right back atcha!

 

[An-Cap Frog]

Looking through the stats again...that 2014 team gave up only 19 PPG...in the Big 12, with all those prolific offenses. Less than 50% pass completions. Only 340 total yards per game. Only 100 yards rushing per game. They led nation in getting 3.1 TOs a game. Unbelievable!

 

[Hoosierfrog]

Interesting W/L stats for this century, not that it means much (other than UM only has to play one real game most years)

Michigan 193/93 avg per year 8.3/4.04

TCU 223/83 avg per year 9.6/3.6

toss out Covid year and both go up slightly