• The KillerFrogs

MLB 2023 Thread

The Dodgers are only paying Ohtani 2 million per year. Ohtani was never leaving LA, he wanted to stay there and he made this deal to give the Dodgers a competitive advantage, and stay in LA.

"Ohtani's 10-year, $700 million deal will include an unprecedented $680 million in deferrals, with Ohtani now slated to make just $2 million per year for each season of his Dodgers' contract, according to The Athletic's Fabain Ardaya. Ohtani will take home just $20 million total from 2024 through 2033, then earn $68 million per year from the Dodgers from 2034 through 2043."

But the Dodgers do take a 46 million hit toward the payroll and tax threshold.

“A team's Competitive Balance Tax figure is determined using the average annual value of each player's contract on the 40-man roster, plus any additional player benefits. If there was no money deferred, the AAV on Ohtani’s contract would be $70 million. However, any money deferred outside the term of the contract is calculated using its present-day value.

Because the value of a dollar decreases over time, the contract has a present-day value of roughly $460 million for the purposes of the CBT, given that so much of it is deferred for more than a decade. Therefore, the Dodgers will have a CBT payroll hit of roughly $46 million per year for the next 10 years from Ohtani’s contract. Essentially, Ohtani offered to defer this much money in order for the Dodgers to have payroll flexibility to continue building a winning team.”
 
I will be content that the Dodgers still get hit with that annual 46k on the payroll. I would have liked to see it a bit higher, but appears the Net Present Value of 70 million 10 years out uses an annual discount rate of 4.3%; Dodgers maybe benefitting from recent inflation to get that higher rate and lower dollar figure.

I don't think the Dodgers will ever have cash flow problems, as long as they stay reasonably competitive, and being able to spend up to the Luxury Tax Threshold allows them to do that. They are brand name, internationally, like the Yankees; they probably have a very rich TV deal, and great merchandise sales. Their only spending restraint is the Luxury Tax Threshold, which does penalize you at greater rates the more consecutive years you go over, along with some minor draft pick losses.

Even though California fans are not big college sports fans, they support the Dodgers and had the largest average attendance of 47k last year. Yankees were next at 41k and Padres a close third. And I am confident they have higher than average ticket prices.

Where it could go wrong on the Ohtani deal is he ages quickly and is not durable - a third Tommy John, old man strains…. He turns 30 next season, and I once read that on average, an MLB player’s best hitting years are 26-30 and pitching is 25-29. Obviously, Ohtani is not average and players now know how to stay in better shape; and yet, It sure seems athletes are injured more now than ever.
 
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LisaLT

Active Member
I am guessing the amount of Ohtani merchandising will make the Dodgers a ton of money. The Japanese players have huge following in their native country, making this a lucrative deal no matter what. The only thing that could foul up this deal is if he can't play or injured through a lot of his contract.
 

ShreveFrog

Full Member
Two elbow surgeries in five years. Won’t pitch in ‘24. I wonder how long he’ll be able to pitch. Could be an expensive retired DH when the Dodgers have to really pay the bills in 10 years.
 
Altuve signed a five-year 125M deal with the Astros that will take him to age 39 (2025-2029). He will probably be short of 3000 hits, but hopefully close at the end of 2029. I really like Altuve, a humble class act. So he may spend his entire long career with one team and maybe make the HOF. A nice short video in this tweet.
 
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