Hey Wexahu

[Planks]

Might? Lol.

Well to clarify, I think it depends on whether the the wins and losses come in the conference championship games or not. If my scenario plays out and TCU’s loss is to Iowa State but we still win the Big 12 Champ game, then our chances are MUCH better, if not absolutely certain.

If we beat Iowa state but lose the Big 12 championship, we may still make it, but it opens the possibility of committee using conference champion status as a way to put another P5 team ahead of us. Also opens up the possibility the committee would put 1 loss Michigan ahead of us, seeing as how neither of us would be conference champions.

Point being I think there is a HUGE difference between 12-1 conference champion TCU and 12-1 conference runner up TCU.

 

[Wexahu]

Well to clarify, I think it depends on whether the the wins and losses come in the conference championship games or not. If my scenario plays out and TCU’s loss is to Iowa State but we still win the Big 12 Champ game, then our chances are MUCH better, if not absolutely certain.

If we beat Iowa state but lose the Big 12 championship, we may still make it, but it opens the possibility of committee using conference champion status as a way to put another P5 team ahead of us.

You seem so certain we are going to lose one of these last two games. Do you think we are a playoff caliber team? If yes, why do you think we are going to lose? If no, I guess you’re worried the committee is going to feel like you do?

 

[Ron Swanson]

I think some of our fans are suggesting that because they have PTSD from the 2014 season. We won our last game 55-3 and dropped 3 spots. Keep in mind that dropping like that NEVER happened in the AP/BCS era, as teams always seemed to be “anchored” into their spot in the old systems. So when it happened to us it was a massive shock, and some of our fans will forever assume that the committee will screw us over no matter what, no matter our record.

Now, with the benefit of hindsight, it should really be no surprise that 12-1 conference champion Ohio State got in over 11-1 co-champions Baylor/TCU. The committee supposedly re-reranks from scratch every week, and without the “drop” it was clearly the easiest least controversial choice.

Personally, I am EXTREMELY concerned that we will not make the playoffs. I am 0% concerned we will be left out if we go undefeated. I am 100% concerned we will run out of steam and lose to Iowa State or Texas/K State. If we lose a game then the committee will absolutely put us behind some combination of USC, Clemson, LSU, and the OSU/MI loser.

This is 100% accurate

 

[Wexahu]

This is 100% accurate

If USC, Clemson and LSU win out, and Michigan or Ohio lose a competitive game. With the possible exception of Clemson or OSU/UM passing us.

 

[Planks]

You seem so certain we are going to lose one of these last two games. Do you think we are a playoff caliber team? If yes, why do you think we are going to lose? If no, I guess you’re worried the committee is going to feel like you do?

My feeling that we are going to lose one of the last two games is less about my thoughts about the quality of our team, and more about my feeling that our team is mentally and physically exhausted due to playing a conference schedule that included no byes or easy games. I think we are running on fumes, and some nagging injuries seem to be taking their toll on key players such as QJ, Miller, Davis. It’s been a great season, but from what I’m seeing, we have a team that is going to run out of gas before the finish line.

I’m not sure if we are a playoff team. I’m sure the metrics say we are not. We certainly aren’t dominating, and based upon the eye test I would take the 2009, 2010, and 2014 teams over this one for sure. Those teams seemed to have the ability, at times, to simply bully teams into complete and utter submission in a way that this team does not. However at the same time at some point you are what your record says you are. A win is a win and this team has found a way.

I will also say, while I do think we will lose a game and miss out on the playoffs, if we do happen to make the playoffs, I think we will exceed expectations, win or lose, simply due to the fact that our team will FINALLY have a break (a month between the CCG and the playoffs)

As far as the committee goes, I’m not really concerned with what the committee feels because I think it will be clear what decision they will make based upon TCU’s record. 13-0 we are in. 12-1 conference champions we are in if there are not four P5 conference champions with equal or better or records, otherwise we are out. Plain and simple. I don’t think there is going to be controversy around TCU this year.

 

[This Ain't Chopped Liver]

I am much more concerned about winning the conference championship and having that Big XII trophy behind glass. Because that trophy is achievable and would be a huge disappointment not having that on the Big XII ledger.

I also think that Big XII championship and 12-1 record gives the Frogs roughly a 50/50 chance of a playoff spot. With a little more scrutiny I might convince myself that only one loss to Iowa State may even be better than a 50/50 chance.

So just win that dang Big XII championship game!

 

[froginmn]

I am much more concerned about winning the conference championship and having that Big XII trophy behind glass. Because that trophy is achievable and would be a huge disappointment not having that on the Big XII ledger.

I also think that Big XII championship and 12-1 record gives the Frogs roughly a 50/50 chance of a playoff spot. With a little more scrutiny I might convince myself that only one loss to Iowa State may even be better than 50/50.

So just win that dang Big XII championship game!

Yeah I prefer that also. My big reason is that a loss to ISU followed by a CCG win puts us in the Sugar Bowl with a chance at the playoff. An ISU win followed by a CCG loss gives us a slight chance at playoff but the alternative in that scenario is the Cotton.

If we need to hedge our bets I like the scenario where the fallback is the Sugar (and a championship).

 

[Planks]

I am much more concerned about winning the conference championship and having that Big XII trophy behind glass. Because that trophy is achievable and would be a huge disappointment not having that on the Big XII ledger.

I also think that Big XII championship and 12-1 record gives the Frogs roughly a 50/50 chance of a playoff spot. With a little more scrutiny I might convince myself that only one loss to Iowa State may even be better than a 50/50 chance.

So just win that dang Big XII championship game!

Agreed, 12-1 with a conference championship and a trip to the Sugar Bowl is still an amazing season. I’d say the odds are a good bit worse than 50/50 for playoffs in that scenario, but certainly MUCH better odds than 12-1 without a conference championship.

Must win that CCG game. If we lose to Texas in the CCG after going 12-0 in the regular season, it will break me.

 

[Sebastian S]

Beat ISU

Then beat a team we already beat in the championship game - really worried about this.

 

[Bruce Berry]

The fallacy is thinking there has to be a considerable difference between #3 and #6, because there doesn't. I specifically remember the committee saying before that final week that there was a "razor thin" margin between those four teams. Everyone's whipping boy Rece Davis (who is probably sticking up for TCU more than any major blowhard at ESPN right now) said the same thing about #5 and #6 LSU and USC last night that basically because one is #5 and one is #6 doesn't mean they aren't basically tied. They can't say T5th. So just assume we were more or less T3rd with three other teams in 2014. After the results of the last week, what changes? It sure as hell ain't a team that wins it's CCG by 59 points not passing anyone and getting into the Top 4.

Rece Davis totally backed us again today. Said we are in regardless of what happens Saturday.

He's right.

 

[Sweat Equity]

Zero chance an undefeated TCU team gets passed by USC.

I’ve seen multiple people suggest it and I don’t understand what they’re thinking.

*smoking

 

[Hoosierfrog]

Sean Payton was on The Herd and dipship Herd was saying USC would obviously pass TCU. Payton said, I’ll give you Michigan and Georgia, but even if my son was not on the TCU staff, I’d tell you you are way off. A one loss team doesn’t go ahead of an undefeated team in any league. Herd idolizes Payton and didn’t seem to know what say. He seemed totally stunned to learn Payton’s kid went to TCU. Herd tried to say USC played a tougher schedule and Payton said, don’t make me do a side by side schedule comparison.