Head-to-Head

[Frogco2015]

Huh? Talking about Texas and Bama. And if you think they’re comperable, see 34-24 in Tuscaloosa this season.

The little 12 and SEC aren’t the same. One fluke game doesn’t matter.

 

[Wexahu]

I very much dislike having 12 (byes, 4 rounds is too many and yes, not necessary), but 8 is the correct number for this year. 5-8 are relatively equally matched with 2-4 and many would guess that every one of 5-8 would defeat FSU. I omit Georgia because I think they may stand alone.

But, Ohio State/Georgia would be a very intriguing matchup, as it was last year - Ohio State may be the 2nd best team, or the best. But my point here is, 2-4 versus 5-8.

2. Michigan
3. Washington
4. FSU
….
5. Oregon
6. Ohio State
7. Texas
8. Alabama

Oregon is playing Washington this Saturday so that will straighten itself out. But as it stands now, you can match up Michigan/Ohio St, Oregon/Washington and either Texas or Bama versus FSU and all three of the lower seeds might be favored.

I would counter that by saying Ohio State already had its chance and lost to Michigan.

Teams like Ohio State barely play more than a few even "competitive" games each year. Giving them a mulligan seems not good, unless you really want to de-emphasize what has been the greatest regular season in all of sports 12 is way to many like you say, but even going to 8 is a HUGE advantage to teams like Ohio State. I think they'd have made every single playoff in the last decade.

 

[Spike]

This one is easy. Alabama is a better team than Texas. Period. One fluke game doesn’t matter, it happens all the time in sports. TCU and Baylor were way closer than Alabama and Texas.

I have family ties to Bama, and I hate UT as much as most right thinking Frog fans do, but it's really hard to get around UT winning decisively in Tuscaloosa. If Bama beats UGA the conversation gets really interesting.

 

[Frog-in-law1995]

That was at the beginning of the season and if you think Milroe and the Bama defense haven't improved, well, can't help you. I hope they get to play again somewhere. Maybe the Cotton Bowl or something. I would put my money on Bama every time right now.

That D looked great giving up 2 more TDs and 200 more rushing yards to Auburn than New Mexico State did in the same stadium 7 days earlier.

 

[Wexahu]

That D looked great giving up 2 more TDs and 200 more rushing yards to Auburn than New Mexico State did in the same stadium 7 days earlier.

These kind of discussions/arguments are interesting.

What is clear to me is the CFP committee is generally WAY more objective with their opinions than Joe Fan. What a shock. Fans complain that the committee just does "whatever they see fit, and back into whatever result they want". Well, not really, that's what fans do.

 

[Planks]

I very much dislike having 12 (byes, 4 rounds is too many and yes, not necessary), but 8 is the correct number for this year. 5-8 are relatively equally matched with 2-4 and many would guess that every one of 5-8 would defeat FSU. I omit Georgia because I think they may stand alone.

But, Ohio State/Georgia would be a very intriguing matchup, as it was last year - Ohio State may be the 2nd best team, or the best. But my point here is, 2-4 versus 5-8.

2. Michigan
3. Washington
4. FSU
….
5. Oregon
6. Ohio State
7. Texas
8. Alabama

Oregon is playing Washington this Saturday so that will straighten itself out. But as it stands now, you can match up Michigan/Ohio St., Washington/Oregon and FSU with either Texas or Bama and all three of the lower seeds might be favored.

Personally, I prefer both 6 and 12 over 4 and 8 specifically because of the bye week. I like the idea of bye weeks because it incentivizes and rewards having the best possible regular season, rather than just meeting the minimum entry for making the playoff. For example, regular season games like 2021 Georgia-Alabama or 2022 Michigan-Ohio State mean more in a playoff system with a bye week, because it decides who gets a bye. Without a bye, those regular season games don’t mean as much because both teams will make the playoff anyway.

I’d have to go back and look, but I think since the advent of the CFP pretty much every team that truly truly deserves a shot at a national championship has finished in the top 6. I think 6 is probably the perfect number. It’s just large enough to include everyone that has an ever truly deserved it (#6 2014 TCU, #6 2018 Ohio State, etc.) while at the same time being small enough that the regular still really matters 99% of the time. Plus with the bye week, it creates incentive to actually have the best regular season in the country.

The only issue with 6 is that it probably doesn’t provide a spot for the G5, but maybe they could still make it in a truly exceptional season (2021 Cincinnati for example). Plus with so many of the top G5 schools moving to power conferences over the pas 15 years, it may not really matter much.

 

[AroundWorldFrog]

That D looked great giving up 2 more TDs and 200 more rushing yards to Auburn than New Mexico State did in the same stadium 7 days earlier.

Shock! A team plays better in one of the most hyped rivalry series than against NMSU!

Shock! TCU almost beats Texas! KSU beat the scheiss out of us. They would beat Texas! Oh wait!

Shock! Some teams actually improve more than other teams over 10-11 games!

That NMSU hill is a weird one to die on imo. Transitive comparisons in college football mean jack [ Finebaum ].

If somehow Texas ends up playing Bama in a bowl game (which won't happen), I'll bet you even money.

 

[Wexahu]

Shock! A team plays better in one of the most hyped rivalry series than against NMSU!

Shock! TCU almost beats Texas! KSU beat the scheiss out of us. They would beat Texas! Oh wait!

Shock! Some teams actually improve more than other teams over 10-11 games!

That NMSU hill is a weird one to die on imo. Transitive comparisons in college football mean jack [ Finebaum ].

If somehow Texas ends up playing Bama in a bowl game (which won't happen), I'll bet you even money.

A) If the two teams played again, my pick would be Alabama, but I wouldn't put much on it.

B) If TCU were in UT's shoes and the committee picked for the playoffs a 1-loss Bama team over a 1-loss TCU team that had beaten Bama by 10 points in Tuscaloosa, no matter who was playing, how they were playing at the time, when that game was played, or what their schedules looked like, our fan base would go absolutely apeshit. It would make the anger over 2014 pale in comparison.

 

[AroundWorldFrog]

A) If the two teams played again, my pick would be Alabama, but I wouldn't put much on it.

B) If TCU were in UT's shoes and the committee picked for the playoffs a 1-loss Bama team over a 1-loss TCU team that had beaten Bama by 10 points in Tuscaloosa, no matter who was playing, how they were playing at the time, when that game was played, or what their schedules looked like, our fan base would go absolutely apeshit. It would make the anger over 2014 pale in comparison.

Very few people argue against the fact that at the end of the year TCU was playing better than Baylor. I'd say the same, at the end of 2014, I think TCU would beat Baylor 8/10. I think Bama right now would beat Texas 8/10. The biggest influence on that is Milroe who is playing 100% better than he did early in the year.

And I am NOT a Bama fan. But I do believe that Saban has improved that team immensely while that win against Bama was likely the best Texas played all year.

 

[Frog-in-law1995]

That NMSU hill is a weird one to die on imo. Transitive comparisons in college football mean jack [ Finebaum ].

First of all, I’m not arguing NMSU is better than Bama, so I’m not really making a transitive argument. I’m pointing out that your claim about the recent improvement of the Bama defense has more holes than their run D did against Auburn 5 days ago. And since you refuse to accept head to head results or Sagarin strength of schedule comparisons, there’s not much objective criteria left with which to compare Texas and Bama. Incidentally, H2H and strength of schedule are two of four factors the committee is REQUIRED to consider when splitting hairs between comparable teams (the other two are championships won and a comparison of results against common opponents - what’s that called? Transitive?). Your “eye test” didn’t make the cut. But I’ll give you this, Bama would be favored against Texas right now…by a point or two.

 

[Wexahu]

Very few people argue against the fact that at the end of the year TCU was playing better than Baylor. I'd say the same, at the end of 2014, I think TCU would beat Baylor 8/10. I think Bama right now would beat Texas 8/10. The biggest influence on that is Milroe who is playing 100% better than he did early in the year.

And I am NOT a Bama fan. But I do believe that Saban has improved that team immensely while that win against Bama was likely the best Texas played all year.

I'm not disagreeing with you, I guess you are disagreeing with me.

I don't care what the other circumstances are, if TCU and Alabama were both sitting with one loss and TCU had beaten Bama by 10 points in Tuscaloosa, there are about zero fans justifying Alabama's inclusion with things like "they'd beat us 8/10 times, their QB is playing better now, Saban has really improved that team", etc.

It'd be "we beat Alabama, end of discussion". I mean, there are some things I'm about 95% sure of, but not totally. On that I am 1,000,000,000% sure, lol.

 

[froginmn]

Personally, I prefer both 6 and 12 over 4 and 8 specifically because of the bye week. I like the idea of bye weeks because it incentivizes and rewards having the best possible regular season, rather than just meeting the minimum entry for making the playoff. For example, regular season games like 2021 Georgia-Alabama or 2022 Michigan-Ohio State mean more in a playoff system with a bye week, because it decides who gets a bye.

It's been my understanding that the first round will be in early/mid December, so 2-3 weeks before the quarterfinals. So, "bye three weeks" instead of "bye two weeks".

In the new system (if conference champ games stay), a team could play a rivalry week game followed by conference championship followed by first round, in three consecutive weeks.

And (get this) you could also have tOSU- Michigan in rivalry week, followed by tOSU-Michigan in the B1G championship game, followed by tOSU-Michigan later in the playoffs. Could be consecutive weeks if the second best team in conference wins the CCG (more likely in B12).

Best of three!

 

[Planks]

It's been my understanding that the first round will be in early/mid December, so 2-3 weeks before the quarterfinals. So, "bye three weeks" instead of "bye two weeks".

Yeah but the benefit of a bye week isn’t the number of weeks off, it’s the fact that is a free guaranteed win in the playoffs. A win that requires no risk of injury to your players and allows you to go into the playoffs fresh, as opposed to your opponent who may be worn down from a first round game.

In the new system (if conference champ games stay), a team could play a rivalry week game followed by conference championship followed by first round, in three consecutive weeks.

And (get this) you could also have tOSU- Michigan in rivalry week, followed by tOSU-Michigan in the B1G championship game, followed by tOSU-Michigan later in the playoffs. Could be consecutive weeks if the second best team in conference wins the CCG (more likely in B12).

Best of three!

I think in the 12 team playoff era, conference championship games should just be eliminated. They aren’t needed anymore. Move all playoff games one week earlier.

Team with the best regular season record should be conference champion.

If multiple teams are tied, then head to head should be the tie breaker.

If tie can’t be broken by head to head (or the tied teams didn’t play) then you just have co-champions and the committee gets to pick which one is most deserving of potentially getting a bye in the playoff.

 

[AroundWorldFrog]

Bama would be favored against Texas right now…by a point or two.

So Vegas agrees with me! lol