Conference title odds

[cdsfrog]

It doesn't work that way. The newer guys we have that red shirted are better than a couple of the seniors we had in place. They weren't ready as true freshman but should be up the task. Losing tanner did hurt for sure. We will not be top 25 this year but next year it's possible.

Of course last year was the anomaly. Any other suggestion is idiotic. Also see my comment on Turnover Margin

 

[Hefley001]

Turnover Margin = Turnovers Gained- Turnovers Lost

Didn't reference turnovers gained. The leader of your secondary is gone so that might be hurt a bit but I dont expect as much of a fallout from Turnovers Gained than I do Margin.

Primarily because your QB will throw more picks and have more fumbles.

He could throw 15ints and we'll still be top 10.

 

[Hefley001]

The newer guys we have that red shirted are better than a couple of the seniors we had in place.

Of course last year was the anomaly.

It doesn't work that way either.

 

[cdsfrog]

He could throw 15ints and we'll still be top 10.

Thats assuming you average 3.8 take aways per game. You may get only 3.3

 

[cdsfrog]

It doesn't work that way either.

Apparently it does to you. At least a 36% drop in production in passing TDs/yards and you expect your offense to be banging still. Not disagreeing either

 

[Hefley001]

Lemme throw something at you real quick:

QB A: 6'3 220
Pass att Pass comp yards TD Int
348 213 3560 35 9 (Jr year)
322 176 2877 23 18 (Sr year)

QB B: 6'5 210
Pass att Pass comp Yards TD Int
323 212 3136 30 4 (Jr year)
168 114 2033 15 1 (Sr year *missed 4 games w/ broken foot)

QB A: Matt Barkley
QB B: Wes Lunt

The reason I showed Barkley as a comparrison is because he was considered one of the top QB prospects in the past 10yrs.

Lunt played in a similar offense in HS as OSU runs. As you can see in his 491 pass attempts the kid only threw 5 picks. He isn't a turnover machine as much as you would think. Yes I'm aware the difference in speed of the game between HS and college, but the kids familiarity with this offense is a huge bonus for OSU. I wouldn't write the kid off because he's a true freshman. He has a cannon arm, very accurate and very smart with the ball according to Todd Monken our OC.

 

[Hefley001]

Thats assuming you average 3.8 take aways per game. You may get only 3.3

Then we'll be top 20

 

[Hefley001]

Apparently it does to you. At least a 36% drop in production in passing TDs/yards and you expect your offense to be banging still. Not disagreeing either

Our offense will be good, but not to last years quality. I've never made that statement.

 

[cdsfrog]

Then we'll be top 20

Agree that's what I said

15-18th is my guess

 

[Hefley001]

Agree that's what I said

15-18th is my guess

Where did you say that? You just said "way down".

Nm I see you edited your earlier post to 20.

But thats based off my sarcastic 15 int comment as well

 

[cdsfrog]

Where did you say that? You just said "way down".

I first said "Expect that ranking to go down" after saying it was 1st last year

Also I said earlier on page 2 "Top 20 but I expect 18th or so, not #1"

 

[Hefley001]

Yeah I wouldn't go out on that limb and say we'll be #1 again. But, being top 10 should be within their reach