CFP Bracket…

[Limey Frog]

What is a situation in which the following has ever occurred?

SEC team left out of the playoff field when deciding between them and a team in another conference with the same record overall but which had played one extra conference game?

In 2017, for example, Alabama got in at 11-1 without playing in the CCG over a 12-1 Wisconsin team whose only loss was to Ohio State in their CCG, and they had played nine conference games to Alabama's eight in the regular season. Obviously 'Bama went on to win it all, so no one talks about that selection now, but there's no way to know what Wisconsin might have done had they been selected instead. In another universe maybe they won the whole thing.

The point is that when there's a choice, the tiebreaker is always are you in the SEC or not. But the SEC plays one less conference game than the Big XII, Big Ten, and (formerly) the Pac 12. So they get the advantage when records are even, and get a free win against Middle Tennessee that counts equally to whatever Wisconsin did against Illinois. So functionally they get spotted a two-game advantage every year.

 

[An-Cap Frog]

Admittedly this is a deep dive but it's friday morning and I'm not at work and I'm bored as hell. You tout that Duke win and couldn't believe they were ranked ahead of Florida.

- Duke has played three teams ranked in the Top 50 in the Massey Composite. They are 0-3 in those games. So they don't have one win against a team in the Top 50!
- Florida has played four teams in the Top 10 of the Massey and seven teams in the Top 20. They are 2-5 in those games.
- The average Massey rank of the eight FBS teams Duke has beaten is 80. The average win margin in those games is 7 points.
- The average Massey rank of the 4 FBS teams Florida has beaten that aren't in the Top 20 is 68. The average win margin in those games is 19 points.
- Duke opponent's average rank is 64 and their total point differential is +33.
- Florida opponent's average rank is 31 and their total point differential is +9. So a difference of 2 points per game despite playing teams that are on average ranked 33 places higher.

And the AP voters apparently think 9-3 Duke is better than 7-5 Florida. Clearly there is an anti-SEC or pro-ACC bias in their rankings? Wouldn't you agree? I doubt there is one person out there who knows anything about football who actually thinks Duke is better than Florida. Their better record is entirely due to the ridiculous disparity in schedule strengths and nothing else. If they played this week Florida would be 9-point favorites. You touting that Duke win as one of your chips to brag on is hilarious.

How much should wins count in the evaluation of teams?

Also, Brett Yormark is hot...

 

[Wexahu]

What is a situation in which the following has ever occurred?

SEC team left out of the playoff field when deciding between them and a team in another conference with the same record overall but which had played one extra conference game?

In 2017, for example, Alabama got in at 11-1 without playing in the CCG over a 12-1 Wisconsin team whose only loss was to Ohio State in their CCG, and they had played nine conference games to Alabama's eight in the regular season. Obviously 'Bama went on to win it all, so no one talks about that selection now, but there's no way to know what Wisconsin might have done had they been selected instead. In another universe maybe they won the whole thing.

The point is that when there's a choice, the tiebreaker is always are you in the SEC or not. But the SEC plays one less conference game than the Big XII, Big Ten, and (formerly) the Pac 12. So they get the advantage when records are even, and get a free win against Middle Tennessee that counts equally to whatever Wisconsin did against Illinois. So functionally they get spotted a two-game advantage every year.

I don't know, but due to massive disparities in schedule strengths in order to do it right you have to look beyond won-loss records. I guess in your example, examine who Wisconsin had beaten on the way to their 12-0 record before they played OSU, and then look at who Alabama had beaten to go 11-1.

The way I look at it a team like Wisconsin KNOWS going in that the Big 10 West schedule would not measure up to any SEC team, or Big 10 East team, or Big 12 team, etc etc. And they knew the rules. So don't schedule Utah State, FAU, and BYU in OOC. If you want to play those teams, just know that you're not going to get the benefit of the doubt, especially when being compared to 11-1 SEC teams.

I mean, everyone all year long talks about how awful some of these divisions are (and you especially heard that about the B10 West for years) and then when it comes to CFP selection time, it's like you want to forget about how bad they are, because you just hate those SEC blue bloods.

 

[Wexahu]

How much should wins count in the evaluation of teams?

Also, Brett Yormark is hot...

I don't think wins vs crap teams should count much at all. There aren't going to be any crap teams in the playoffs. Heck, Duke hasn't beaten a Top 50 team all year. How in the heck should they be three spots out of the Top 25 in ANY poll? That's just absurd.

To pretend schedule strength doesn't make a massive difference in teams records is equally absurd. That's why automatically thinking every 9-2 P4 team should be ahead of every 8-3 team is completely dumb, especially now that schedules are even more imbalanced.

 

[An-Cap Frog]

I don't think wins vs crap teams should count much at all. There aren't going to be any crap teams in the playoffs. Heck, Duke hasn't beaten a Top 50 team all year. How in the heck should they be three spots out of the Top 25 in ANY poll? That's just absurd.

To pretend schedule strength doesn't make a massive difference in teams records is equally absurd. That's why automatically thinking every 9-2 P4 team should be ahead of every 8-3 team is completely dumb, especially now that schedules are even more imbalanced.

Yormark brought up the issue of 11-1 Boise State, that played only 1 P4 school (Oregon) and lost, being ranked a head of 10-2 ASU, that played 10 P4 schools (1 SEC) and went 8-2 in those games. Let's say both win their conference games. BSU will have beaten UNLV and ASU would have beaten ISU. Can ASU jump BSU in the rankings with a win?

 

[Mean Purple]

How much should wins count in the evaluation of teams?

Also, Brett Yormark is hot...

Yormark is spot on. No way a g5 should be ranked above the Big 12 champ. And the strength of schedule spells it out well. Same with the 3 loss sec team vs the 2 loss Big 12 champ.

 

[Mean Purple]

How much should wins count in the evaluation of teams?

Also, Brett Yormark is hot...

the committee does not rely on actual metrics. Yormark just told y'all what they rely on. This whol playoff thing was set up to protect big names from the start.

 

[Wexahu]

Yormark brought up the issue of 11-1 Boise State, that played only 1 P4 school (Oregon) and lost, being ranked a head of 10-2 ASU, that played 10 P4 schools (1 SEC) and went 8-2 in those games. Let's say both win their conference games. BSU will have beaten UNLV and ASU would have beaten ISU. Can ASU jump BSU in the rankings with a win?

They should be able to. But here is what is being left out.....

- Boise played 1 "P4" school but it was Oregon, who is currently #1. They lost by 3 points, at their place. I think that's considerably different than losing by 20 points at home.
- Boise also played Oregon State and Washington State who just a year ago were P5. They won those games by 16 points and 21 points.
The one SEC team ASU played was Mississippi State, who was 0-9 in the SEC. They won by 7 points at home.
- The Big 12 is a better league than the MWC, there is zero doubt about that. But ASU did lose to Texas Tech and Cincinnati. Boise went 7-0 in the MWC and beat teams by an average of 17 points.
- In the Massey, Boise is #26 and ASU is #21. That would bode well for ASU.

I personally think if ASU and Boise both win, ASU should pass them, but it's really close. I don't think Boise would be 11-1 were they in the Big 12. But that Oregon thing is weird, that's the one thing that I'm sure keeps them as high as they are. Even though it was a loss, that's the single most impressive thing either team has on it's resume in terms of proving that you can hang with the best.

The MWC to the Big 12 is the Big 12 to the SEC. Yorkmark doesn't point that out. "Number of P4 schools played" is a dumb metric because there is a huge difference between some P4 schools.

 

[ECM]

Admittedly this is a deep dive but it's friday morning and I'm not at work and I'm bored as hell. You tout that Duke win and couldn't believe they were ranked ahead of Florida.

- Duke has played three teams ranked in the Top 50 in the Massey Composite. They are 0-3 in those games. So they don't have one win against a team in the Top 50!
- Florida has played four teams in the Top 10 of the Massey and seven teams in the Top 20. They are 2-5 in those games.
- The average Massey rank of the eight FBS teams Duke has beaten is 80. The average win margin in those games is 7 points.
- The average Massey rank of the 4 FBS teams Florida has beaten that aren't in the Top 20 is 68. The average win margin in those games is 19 points.
- Duke opponent's average rank is 64 and their total point differential is +33.
- Florida opponent's average rank is 31 and their total point differential is +9. So a difference of 2 points per game despite playing teams that are on average ranked 33 places higher.

And the AP voters apparently think 9-3 Duke is better than 7-5 Florida. Clearly there is an anti-SEC or pro-ACC bias in their rankings? Wouldn't you agree? I doubt there is one person out there who knows anything about football who actually thinks Duke is better than Florida. Their better record is entirely due to the ridiculous disparity in schedule strengths and nothing else. If they played this week Florida would be 9-point favorites. You touting that Duke win as one of your chips to brag on is hilarious.

Man, what did Duke do to you?!

I kid, I kid. but you're not wrong...they've beaten up on bad to mediocre competition and lost to good competition. I saw on Twitter today where the first Power program since 2015 to finish the season 9-3 and not be ranked, and I think they earned it.

But you said "I doubt there is one person out there who knows anything about football who actually thinks Duke is better than Florida." Well you'll have to take it up with the voters in the Coaches Poll if you discount the AP...the Coaches have Duke at 27th with 39 votes while Florida did not receive a single vote.

 

[Wexahu]

Man, what did Duke do to you?!

I kid, I kid. but you're not wrong...they've beaten up on bad to mediocre competition and lost to good competition. I saw on Twitter today where the first Power program since 2015 to finish the season 9-3 and not be ranked, and I think they earned it.

But you said "I doubt there is one person out there who knows anything about football who actually thinks Duke is better than Florida." Well you'll have to take it up with the voters in the Coaches Poll if you discount the AP...the Coaches have Duke at 27th with 39 votes while Florida did not receive a single vote.

I think it just shows how lazy the coaches are in filling out their polls.

I guess I can't prove it, but I'd bet good money that if the coaches had one game to play for their jobs, that every one of them would rather play Duke than Florida.

 

[An-Cap Frog]

They should be able to. But here is what is being left out.....

- Boise played 1 "P4" school but it was Oregon, who is currently #1. They lost by 3 points, at their place. I think that's considerably different than losing by 20 points at home.
- Boise also played Oregon State and Washington State who just a year ago were P5. They won those games by 16 points and 21 points.
The one SEC team ASU played was Mississippi State, who was 0-9 in the SEC. They won by 7 points at home.
- The Big 12 is a better league than the MWC, there is zero doubt about that. But ASU did lose to Texas Tech and Cincinnati. Boise went 7-0 in the MWC and beat teams by an average of 17 points.
- In the Massey, Boise is #26 and ASU is #21. That would bode well for ASU.

I personally think if ASU and Boise both win, ASU should pass them, but it's really close. I don't think Boise would be 11-1 were they in the Big 12. But that Oregon thing is weird, that's the one thing that I'm sure keeps them as high as they are. Even though it was a loss, that's the single most impressive thing either team has on it's resume in terms of proving that you can hang with the best.

The MWC to the Big 12 is the Big 12 to the SEC. Yorkmark doesn't point that out. "Number of P4 schools played" is a dumb metric because there is a huge difference between some P4 schools.

All valid points. I also think losing to Oregon or beating Clemson in week 1 is different than losing and beating them today. As an example, OU probably would not have beaten Alabama early in the season.

FWIW, I have the Big 12 a half as close to the SEC than the MW is to the Big 12 and I have the Big 12 about as far behind the Big 10 and it is above the ACC.

 

[An-Cap Frog]

 

[TxFrog1999]

First round byes need to go to Oregon, Georgia, Boise, and ASU. Notre Dame shouldn't be allowed a bye because they don't play an extra game, invoking the 2014 TCU rule.

 

[bc puckett]

First round byes need to go to Oregon, Georgia, Boise, and ASU. Notre Dame shouldn't be allowed a bye because they don't play an extra game, invoking the 2014 TCU rule.

I think it’s actually because the byes go to conference champions which obviously is something ND can’t be

 

[bwnorx]

 

[Wexahu]

The path to the final four is gonna be a hell of a lot easier as a 11 or 12 seed than as a 7-10 seed.

 

[froginmn]

I think the rankings are straightforward and there are very few points for debate.

Top four conference champions:

1) Oregon
2) Georgia
3) Boise St (I don't think ASU, which was #15, should move past Boise, which was 10). Obviously one point of debate.
4) Arizona State

Remainder of rankings

5) Notre Dame
6) Texas
7) Penn State (yes they lost to OSU but then OSU lost at home to an average Michigan team). Some room for debate
8) Ohio State
9) Tennessee
10) Indiana
11) Clemson
12) SMU (I think they stay in with a close loss to Clemson. Bama lost to two 6-6 teams; if you want to say the ACC CG was SMU's playoff game, the late season loss to OU was Bama's)

 

[bmoney214]

First round byes need to go to Oregon, Georgia, Boise, and ASU. Notre Dame shouldn't be allowed a bye because they don't play an extra game, invoking the 2014 TCU rule.

Notre Dame is not eligible for a bye because they don't have a conference championship game to play in. They'll end up with the 5 seed and a home playoff game.

 

[bmoney214]

I think the rankings are straightforward and there are very few points for debate.

Top four conference champions:

1) Oregon
2) Georgia
3) Boise St (I don't think ASU, which was #15, should move past Boise, which was 10). Obviously one point of debate.
4) Arizona State

Remainder of rankings

5) Notre Dame
6) Texas
7) Penn State (yes they lost to OSU but then OSU lost at home to an average Michigan team). Some room for debate
8) Ohio State
9) Tennessee
10) Indiana
11) Clemson
12) SMU (I think they stay in with a close loss to Clemson. Bama lost to two 6-6 teams; if you want to say the ACC CG was SMU's playoff game, the late season loss to OU was Bama's)

That's pretty much how I think things should end up but you just don't know what that scheissing committee is going to do with bama and SMU.

 

[TxFrog1999]

The biggest issue with SOS is the pre-season bias towards blue blood brands and the SEC that continues to give higher rankings to those schools for similar performances which inflate their SOS metric by the end of the year.