• The KillerFrogs

BE puts expansion on hold

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bscttyb

Active Member
Smart move IMO. Waiting another year will allow the Big East to really look at all options for the next new tv contract.
 
HG73

HG73

Active Member
Smells like no Nova to me, unless they can get a bigger stadium and maybe not even then. Gives the TV boys over a year to crunch the numbers and tell us who to add to get us the biggest contract. Bet it's NOT anyone from CUSA.
 
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angelo's frog

Active Member
Smart move to turn down the ESPN extension and wait to have an open bidding process. Get NBC/Comcast, Fox and ESPN all in on the process and see where it takes us. I think it will take us to a 12 team league but I could be wrong. It could just be 10. In any event, unless we hit an even bigger economic downturn, the same money will be there later. The only other deal on the horizon is the Big 12 first tier deal with ESPN that comes up in 2014 I believe. ESPN may try to lock that up early but I don't think that will affect us that much. I think opening up the bidding will get us a 20-25% larger deal.
 
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mtmedlin

New Member
I am finally having some faith in the BE leadership. This is so smart on many levels. Adding TCU was a slam dunk not only because yall are awesome on the field and add the Texas markets but also because you didnt cost us a thing. The BE averages $700K for a "pay for a win" game. Now with 9 teams we can eliminate one of those, which league wide that is a savings of $5.6 million...which is more then TCUs cut of the TV deal. The BE actually made money by adding TCU... Now if we went to a 9 game schedule, adding 1 more team would make sense but the argument between who and how far to expand and whether or not we want a 9 in conference game schedule need to be resolved.

It looks like Marinatto is willing to fight for our real worth. That last contract was signed out of deperation. This one will be signed out of strength. If we can get a Comcast/Fox combo bid with a network, we will be lightyears ahead of the ACC, who will be stuck in their contract for 10 years after we sign ours. VTech, Miami and BC may feel good right now but I am predicting in early 2013 their going to feel real stupid!
 
McFroggin

McFroggin

Active Member
Shouldn't expansion happen now - before the contract is signed? Or is there a contract provision that increases payout with each team we add to the league? No way it is intelligent to sign a flat rate contract and THEN add teams to the Big East to dilute the pot.
 
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mtmedlin

New Member
The contract wont be negotiated until the beginning of the 2012/2013 season and doesnt take effect until the beginning of the 2013 season. We have two years before it starts...plenty of time to negotiate and sort things out.
 
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angelo's frog

Active Member
McFroggin said:
Shouldn't expansion happen now - before the contract is signed? Or is there a contract provision that increases payout with each team we add to the league? No way it is intelligent to sign a flat rate contract and THEN add teams to the Big East to dilute the pot.
Click to expand...

We can't start formally listening to offers until November 2012. I bet some studies are done and consultants consulted and networks will somehow let it be known who they prefer and then offers for expansion will be made during the spring or summer of 2012 so that teams can get out of their current conferences after the 2012 season and before the BE's new contract starts in 2013. That's how the Pac-12 did it. Invite your new members and then negotiate during the one year waiting period.
 
D

Despite the odds Frog

Active Member
It amazes me that these storylines are not front page of ESPN NCAA college football page. Isn't ESPN suppose to talk about Big East and cover these meetings. Shouldn't they get the same respect as the other BCS conferences...they are under ESPN contract. You would think ESPN would want to promote its conferences. Why I think it might be good to wait some time before trying to negotiate a deal now...
 
Limey Frog

Limey Frog

Full Member
froglicious said:
I am already liking the BE leadership. Thoughtful, poised and confident.
Click to expand...

The article cited unnamed sources to the effect that "some schools" wanted to just pull the trigger with ESPN, no questions asked. Those were obviously the basketball schools that don't give a rip about football [and therefore have no foresight]. If you saw Oliver Luck's comments the other week he made clear that the football schools have absolutely drawn the line regarding matching the money other BC$ programs are making. Since informally inviting Villanova to move up a year or so ago the BE has faced the threat of extinction, then seen the Longwhorn Conference and Pac-12 make bank.

Whatever else does or doesn't happen, two things are clear. Firstly, the BE football schools realize they cannot remain competitive if they allow Providence and Co. to continue driving the bus. Secondly, $15-$20M per football school per annum is a sine qua non. The future conference line-up will only include the schools that can make that happen. Clearly the decision to wait indicates that Comcast has communicated interest in the league. That can only be a good thing. Here is a chance to get the money we need, probably keep basketball with ESPN, and potentially place our marquee football games nationally on NBC next to Notre Dame home games. That sounds great to me.
 
PurplePutt

PurplePutt

Active Member
I believe there will be some unhappy campers in both the Big 12 and the ACC. I hope these negotiations include behind the scenes discussions with some of those schools, i.e., if you were to join the BE, the payout would be. Of course any of those talks with ESPN would be taking from one and giving to another. NBC could do it though.
 
M

mtmedlin

New Member
I do think its telling that Nova and Notre Dame have come out hard in support of the football side. They know without football that their conference is dead and their money will go down. The majority of the teams that went to the NCAA tourny were on the footballl side.

Someone mentioned us contacting Comcast. What I think is interesting is that we have commisoner Tag. He "technically" isnt a part of the BE...therefore if Comcast were to mention to him what they want, it wouldnt violate our exclusive negotiations with ESPN.

Think about this..Comcast was willing to spend $225 million per year, by themselves to get the Pac 12. This is a conference who has great history but has lower viewership then the Big East and also doesnt have as many of the top markets as the BE (we can argue penetration, I am saying "in" the markets) If we could offer Kansas, K st and Missou an exit from the B12 with an offer from comcast for the same amount, we would be essentially giving Comcast a better TV product as far as viewership in football and much better basketball (which also has alot more inventory) but for the same bid price. Can anyone honestly say that the current Pac 12 is better in terms of TV, then the current BE plus TCU, Kansas, K St and Missou. Our basketball would be by far the best in the nation...WAY ahead of Pac 12 and our football would be on par. We cant match their top teams but we have so many in the middle that it makes up for their bottom rung.

How would it break down? Estimates are that the new BE contract will be that Basktball gets somewhere between 33 - 50% of the contract. As the contract grows in size, the percentage for BBall will shrink. They get about $1,4 million a year right now. Under this amount everyody who plays BBall gets $4.36 million (assuming 33% of contract)...basically triple (BBall only teams happy) Football gets the BBall money and $12.56 million for a total of $16.925 million (football very happy) The Big 12 are sharing $150 million in revenue for the next 6 years..with at least AtM saying that they will take their $20 million gurantee...Texas and OK havent said definitely that they would. IF they decide to take an equal share(ok, yes I almost laughed when I typed that) it would leave $13 million a piece. If they both take their $20 million, it leaves $9 million a piece.... I am thinking either way that nearly $17 million would be looking pretty good. Also consider that Nebraskas exit fee was $9.2 million, or roughly a little over 2 years worth of difference. By year three, they are making money and thats 'if" Texas and OK dont take their full $20 million.

btw... heres the Pac 12 average home attendance

15. USC, 79,907
23. Washington, 66,264
28. UCLA, 60,376
29. Oregon, 59,398
31. California, 57,873
36. Arizona, 55,408
47. Arizona, St. 47,943
49. Colorado, 46,864
51. Oregon State, 45,509
52. Utah, 45,459
62. Stanford, 40,042
83. Washington State, 24,532

For a total of 629,577 total average or 52, 464 per team average

In comparison the BE with the 3 B12 additions:
Cincinnati 35,067
Connecticut 38,248
Louisville 50,648
Pittsburgh 52,165
Rutgers 46,195
South Florida 40,839
Syracuse 40,065
West Virginia 56,326
TCU 42,466
Kansas 44,851
Kansas St. 49,816
Missouri 61, 450

For a total of 558,136 or 46,511 per team average, for a net difference of 71,441 total or less then 5,593 per team or 992 per game (using 6 home game average)

Now to give you a fair comparison, this was one of the Pac12s best years in the past 5, whereas it was the worst for the BE. Taking the best years from both, the numbers are nearly identical. If you take into account BE basketball, we kill them on revenue and attendance. All in all, I think we are just as valuable with those three added as the Pac 12. Real question is, will Comcast help us?

(and as far as markets...within the top 35 DMAs, the Pac 12 has 6 (alot of overlap with USC, UCLA and U of California and I gave them San Fran and San diego because of high viewership) The Big east would have 10, if we add the B12 teams. To me this signals that to Comcast we would be worth the investment...also hurting Fox and ESPN would be a plus!)
 
W

WVUFan

New Member
MTM you need to look at the footprint that each conference holds. Marinatto said this today

""Specifically, for example, the Big East Conference represents 30 percent of the households in America. You look at the Pac-12 footprint. You look at the Big East footprint, look at the ACC footprint. Obviously we deliver much more in terms of our households.""

With TX now in play that 30% will go up. With many house holds you have to figure they will use this as an arguing piece.


http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/story/15093743/after-pac12-deal-big-east-puts-expansion-on-hold
 
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WVUFan

New Member
Gatta say I was not liking what seemed the BE was doing with this contract wise and expansion wise But Marinatto won me over today cant wait to see how this progresses.
 
toadallytexan

toadallytexan

ToadallyTexan
This little school on the prairie is happy to have already done our small part to allow the BE to take its time in deciding the next step. Looks like win-win all around.
 

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