BCS rankings thoughts

[KillerFrog InD KitchenSink]

Was travelling yesterday, and just looking at the rankings this AM.

1. Computers love OU this week relative to last week, prob b/c of their win over UT (and UT's win over Neb).
2. Computers like us a little better than Boise, now. Lots of factors into that, but the Baylor win is probably a big one in the eyes of the computers. Hate depending on Baylor down the stretch. They could go anywhere from 3-2 to 0-5.
3. Mich St. passing us in the computers is a little problematic. Still think there is a chance they might not pass us if undefeated since the only credibility game they have left is the Iowa game, and that is the same week of our biggest credibility game (Utah). Other AQ undefeateds all have at least 2 credibility games left, so they probably pass us, but still not convinced Mich St. will.
4. Computers all of the sudden liking Utah a lot more. Last week they were well into the 20s there, now #11. Not sure why they went up in the computers- all of their previous opponents lost except for Pitt. No matter- good for us. Still a lot of variables, but I think a win over an undefeated Utah probably puts us past Boise if we are both undefeated. Nothing voters and computers respond to than a win over a top 10 team.
5. Computers like the 1-loss PAC-10 teams and don't like the 1-loss SEC and Big 10 teams relative to the voters. Arizona and Stanford are higher in the computers than the polls, but Ohio St, Alabama, Wisconsin, and Iowa are all lower in the computer rankings than the polls.
6. Not sure if the SEC East upsets were good or bad. Still think we want as many SEC teams in the BCS top 14 as possible, if we end up behind Boise in the final BCS rankings. The more SEC teams, the fewer at large spots open for teams from other conferences. And since the BCS can only take 2 from a conference, those are basically lost spots.

My predicted BCS matchups based on this weeks rankings:

Before at large picks:

National championship: #1 OU vs #2 Oregon
Rose: #3 Boise (top non-AQ has to go to Rose this yr) vs #7 Mich st. (Big 10 champ)
Sugar: #4 Auburn (SEC champ) vs at large
Fiesta: At large vs at large
Orange: #17 FSU (ACC champ) vs at large

At large pool:
#5 TCU
#6 LSU
#8 Alabama
#9 Utah
#10 Ohio St
#11 Missouri
#12 Stanford
#13 Wisconsin
#14 Oklahoma St

Order-
Fiesta (for losing OU)
Sugar
Orange
Fiesta

Fiesta picks #6 LSU (Alabama eliminated from pool)---or would they pick a Big 12 school?
Sugar picks #10 Ohio St (Wisconsin eliminated from pool)
Orange has choice of #5 TCU, #11 Mizzou, #12 Stanford and #14 Oklahoma St. I think they go with the highest ranked team in TCU, since none of the others are big names or known as big travellers.
Fiesta stuck with West Va

Matchups if the Fiesta selects LSU:
National championship: #1 OU vs #2 Oregon
Rose: #3 Boise (has to go to Rose) vs #7 Mich st. (Big 10 champ)
Sugar: #4 Auburn (SEC champ) vs #10 Ohio St
Fiesta: #6 LSU vs #20 West Va
Orange: #17 FSU vs #5 TCU

Matchups if the Fiesta selects a Big 12 team:
National championship: #1 OU vs #2 Oregon
Rose: #3 Boise (has to go to Rose) vs #7 Mich st. (Big 10 champ)
Sugar: #4 Auburn (SEC champ) vs #10 Ohio St.
Fiesta: #11 Mizzou vs #20 West Viginia
Orange: #17 FSU vs #6 LSU

 

[fanatical frog]

lost spots.

My predicted BCS matchups based on this weeks rankings:

Before at large picks:

National championship: #1 OU vs #2 Oregon
Rose: #3 Boise (top non-AQ has to go to Rose this yr) vs #7 Mich st. (Big 10 champ)
Sugar: #4 Auburn (SEC champ) vs at large
Fiesta: At large vs at large
Orange: #17 FSU (ACC champ) vs at large

At large pool:
#5 TCU
#6 LSU
#8 Alabama
#9 Utah
#10 Ohio St
#11 Missouri
#12 Stanford
#13 Wisconsin
#14 Oklahoma St

Order-
Fiesta (for losing OU)
Sugar
Orange
Fiesta

Fiesta picks #6 LSU (Alabama eliminated from pool)---or would they pick a Big 12 school?
Sugar picks #10 Ohio St (Wisconsin eliminated from pool)
Orange has choice of #5 TCU, #11 Mizzou, #12 Stanford and #14 Oklahoma St. I think they go with the highest ranked team in TCU, since none of the others are big names or known as big travellers.
Fiesta stuck with West Va

Matchups if the Fiesta selects LSU:
National championship: #1 OU vs #2 Oregon
Rose: #3 Boise (has to go to Rose) vs #7 Mich st. (Big 10 champ)
Sugar: #4 Auburn (SEC champ) vs #10 Ohio St
Fiesta: #6 LSU vs #20 West Va
Orange: #17 FSU vs #5 TCU

Matchups if the Fiesta selects a Big 12 team:
National championship: #1 OU vs #2 Oregon
Rose: #3 Boise (has to go to Rose) vs #7 Mich st. (Big 10 champ)
Sugar: #4 Auburn (SEC champ) vs #10 Ohio St.
Fiesta: #11 Mizzou vs #20 West Viginia
Orange: #17 FSU vs #6 LSU

LSU still has to play Auburn; Alabama and Arkansas not to mention rival game Ole Miss. Wouldn't be surprised for them to lose at least twice. Barring a big upset, Alabama is the only roadblock to Auburn going thru undefeated.

If all that comes to pass, then I would hope an undefeated TCU would find a place at the table over a two loss LSU or Alabama.

 

[Cougar/Frog]

Mizzo has a bad rep among the BCS. Remember that Kansas got into the Orange Bowl over Mizzo a couple years ago. I wonder if Mizzo has had problems selling out its allotments to bowl games over the last few years.....

Besides, Mizzo won't get in -- the Tigers will finish no better than 10-2 and be at the Cotton or Alamo or Holiday Bowls (wow, too bad a MWC 2nd or 3rd place team can't get to bowls like that.....)

 

[Duquesne Frog]

... the Tigers will finish no better than 10-2 and be at the Cotton or Alamo or Holiday Bowls (wow, too bad a MWC 2nd or 3rd place team can't get to bowls like that.....)

Browsed over to this blog on the San Antonio website linked to on one of Top's other threads where one of the VP's for the Alamo Bowl talked about the Dave Campbell's cover jinx and how Adam Daulton is the only guy on the cover to have escaped (A&M's Johnson and UH's Keenum being the others). At the end he says:

The Valero Alamo Bowl is Switzerland and is impartial toward all of the teams that could play in San Antonio. But given we are in the United States and America loves to see their fallen stars rebound, I wouldn't mind if this blog "reverse jinxes" any of the Dave Campbell's cover boys who are off to a rough start to better times.
​

To which someone should respond, Hey Rick, how about your bowl extend that "impartiality" to other quality teams in your state and region who aren't in the Big 12 such as two of the three on the cover of DCTF ...

 

[HoustonHornedFrog]

The problem with putting up projections for at large bids at this time of year is that many of the teams that now hold those places in the top of the BCS rankings MUST lose.

This is what we know right now, without figuring on any real upsets, and at this point in the season when two undefeated teams play, or for that matter two teams that are ranked in the top 14 of the standings, it isn't a real upset no matter who wins.

Big 12 - Three current undefeated teams. Only one, at most, can stay that way.
Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri - Two of these teams could end the year undefeated until the big 12 championship game at which point there can be only one.
If OU beats Miss this weekend there are no undefeated teams in the North and there will be at most one undefeated in the big 12 title game - the winner of OU/Ok.St. If Miss wins Ok.St and Miss. could enter the game undefeated. None of these teams have looked unbeatable. If Miss. gets past OU it has to play at Neb. the following week. Can't really see Ok. St. even getting to the final game against OU undefeated.

SEC - Two current undefeated + Alabama
Auburn, LSU play this weekend so only one undefeated SEC team remains. LSU and Auburn both have to play Alabama. No one in the East with less than 2 losses. Of the big three right now, at least one will end the regular season with at least 2 losses.

MWC - Utah and TCU only one will come out undefeated but whoever does should run the table and stay that way.

Big 10 - Michigan State the lone unbeaten doesn't have to play OhSt this year so both could win out and take BCS spots.

WAC - BSU likely to win out.

PAC 10 - Or. could stay undefeated.

Total of 6 teams COULD remain undefeated but my bet would be no more than 3, I don't see anyone out of the SEC or Big 12 going all the way and don't see both Or. and Mich.St. making it either.

Bottom line is there is > half the season to go. Almost anything can still happen.

 

[KillerFrog InD KitchenSink]

The problem with putting up projections for at large bids at this time of year is that many of the teams that now hold those places in the top of the BCS rankings MUST lose.

This is what we know right now, without figuring on any real upsets, and at this point in the season when two undefeated teams play, or for that matter two teams that are ranked in the top 14 of the standings, it isn't a real upset no matter who wins.

Big 12 - Three current undefeated teams. Only one, at most, can stay that way.
Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri - Two of these teams could end the year undefeated until the big 12 championship game at which point there can be only one.
If OU beats Miss this weekend there are no undefeated teams in the North and there will be at most one undefeated in the big 12 title game - the winner of OU/Ok.St. If Miss wins Ok.St and Miss. could enter the game undefeated. None of these teams have looked unbeatable. If Miss. gets past OU it has to play at Neb. the following week. Can't really see Ok. St. even getting to the final game against OU undefeated.

SEC - Two current undefeated + Alabama
Auburn, LSU play this weekend so only one undefeated SEC team remains. LSU and Auburn both have to play Alabama. No one in the East with less than 2 losses. Of the big three right now, at least one will end the regular season with at least 2 losses.

MWC - Utah and TCU only one will come out undefeated but whoever does should run the table and stay that way.

Big 10 - Michigan State the lone unbeaten doesn't have to play OhSt this year so both could win out and take BCS spots.

WAC - BSU likely to win out.

PAC 10 - Or. could stay undefeated.

Total of 6 teams COULD remain undefeated but my bet would be no more than 3, I don't see anyone out of the SEC or Big 12 going all the way and don't see both Or. and Mich.St. making it either.

Bottom line is there is > half the season to go. Almost anything can still happen.

Good post, and agree with comments in regards to the NC race.

As far as your first comment, I like to look at the current rankings to see how the bowls might hypothetically react to them. This is important especially if we are not the highest rated non-AQ team and are fighting for an at large more than the nc game aspirations.

In regards to an at large BCS bid, the following are things I think we want to hope for:

1. SEC champ in the Sugar Bowl instead of the NC game. Opens up the Sugar big time for us, I'd think, since they won't use an at large on another SEC team.
2. As many SEC teams as possible in the top 14- why I think the South Carolina and Florida losses were paradoxically a negative for us. That opens up some at large spots.
3. Only one Big 12 team in the top 14. Or if there are two, make it Mizzou who is not known as a big name or good traveller.
4. Ohio St. and Neb to have as many losses as possible. They are teams the BCS bowls would never pass on.

Some things in our favor (in regards to a BCS at large bid) right now.
- PAC-10 is a poor travelling league and their #2 is unlikely to be attractive to the Sugar or Orange. PAC-10 is looking very strong, especially in the computers. However, they'd obviously get two in if one team goes to the NC game. They'd also be attractive to the Fiesta.
- Two of the four top Big 12 teams are not big names (OKSt and Mizzou).
- ND is already out of the running.
- Utah is in top 14- takes up a spot. An 11-1 Utah is for sure in the top 14.

Some things not going in our favor so far:
- Mich St and Iowa would be very attractive as at larges- very likely the Big 10 gets two teams at this point.
- SEC east unlikely to be in the final top 14- opens a few more spots up for other conferences.
- ACC and BE champs not being in the top 14- we want them to be in the top 14 to take a spot. If FSU and West Va win out, they will for sure be in the top 14, but there isn't much room for error.

 

[Boomhauer]

Good post, and agree with comments in regards to the NC race.

As far as your first comment, I like to look at the current rankings to see how the bowls might hypothetically react to them. This is important especially if we are not the highest rated non-AQ team and are fighting for an at large more than the nc game aspirations.

In regards to an at large BCS bid, the following are things I think we want to hope for:

1. SEC champ in the Sugar Bowl instead of the NC game. Opens up the Sugar big time for us, I'd think, since they won't use an at large on another SEC team.
2. As many SEC teams as possible in the top 14- why I think the South Carolina and Florida losses were paradoxically a negative for us. That opens up some at large spots.
3. Only one Big 12 team in the top 14. Or if there are two, make it Mizzou who is not known as a big name or good traveller.
4. Ohio St. and Neb to have as many losses as possible. They are teams the BCS bowls would never pass on.

Some things in our favor (in regards to a BCS at large bid) right now.
- PAC-10 is a poor travelling league and their #2 is unlikely to be attractive to the Sugar or Orange. PAC-10 is looking very strong, especially in the computers. However, they'd obviously get two in if one team goes to the NC game. They'd also be attractive to the Fiesta.
- Two of the four top Big 12 teams are not big names (OKSt and Mizzou).
- ND is already out of the running.- Utah is in top 14- takes up a spot. An 11-1 Utah is for sure in the top 14.

Some things not going in our favor so far:
- Mich St and Iowa would be very attractive as at larges- very likely the Big 10 gets two teams at this point.
- SEC east unlikely to be in the final top 14- opens a few more spots up for other conferences.
- ACC and BE champs not being in the top 14- we want them to be in the top 14 to take a spot. If FSU and West Va win out, they will for sure be in the top 14, but there isn't much room for error.

Agree with much of this post. Although if ND wins out and finishes 9-3 I still think they would get an at-large bid (assuming they reach the top 14).

 

[KillerFrog InD KitchenSink]

Agree with much of this post. Although if ND wins out and finishes 9-3 I still think they would get an at-large bid (assuming they reach the top 14).

Good point. A Utah win over Notre Dame would kill two birds with one stone- knock ND out of the running and improve our SOS.

 

[Goo]

SEC has zero wins against Top 20 teams (non-conf)
So computers hate SEC

 

[BigEasyFrog]

One of Auburn and LSU is obviously going to lose Saturday, which will help our cause. While being an LSU fan I want them to win obviously, I think for TCU reasons an Auburn win over LSU would better serve us. Auburn is certainly capable of going through undefeated but they still have Alabama to deal with. LSU still has Alabama and Arkansas to deal with and honestly they are so incompetent on offense sometimes that they might brainfart against Ole Miss. I think you'll see 2 losses from LSU more likely than 2 losses from Auburn.

Can obviously spin this specific game a number of different ways though to possibly help our cause.

 

[rynosdad]

Browsed over to this blog on the San Antonio website linked to on one of Top's other threads where one of the VP's for the Alamo Bowl talked about the Dave Campbell's cover jinx and how Adam Daulton is the only guy on the cover to have escaped (A&M's Johnson and UH's Keenum being the others). At the end he says:

The Valero Alamo Bowl is Switzerland and is impartial toward all of the teams that could play in San Antonio. But given we are in the United States and America loves to see their fallen stars rebound, I wouldn't mind if this blog "reverse jinxes" any of the Dave Campbell's cover boys who are off to a rough start to better times.
​

To which someone should respond, Hey Rick, how about your bowl extend that "impartiality" to other quality teams in your state and region who aren't in the Big 12 such as two of the three on the cover of DCTF ...

Is this the same Adam Doulton of the College World Series fame? :huh: