AP: Big 12 moving quickly to add four new members

[LisaLT]

I think this is a solid strategic move. It proves the remaining 8 are committed to maintaining their power 5 league and are adding the best competitive programs to do that. It sends a message to the rest of the college football world that we aren’t going away. This new league has a chance to be very good I think. I’ll be interested to see how it plays out.

 

[Wexahu]

I understand options are limited and wish nothing but the best for the future of TCU but this all feels like 2nd tier. Call me unrealistic and delusional but I want TCU to win a national title and not sure they wold be able to do it under this structure. The “haves” are going to do everything possible to prevent outsiders having a chance. This alignment may seal that deal.

The only time "outsiders" had a legitimate chance to win a national title was in the pre-playoff era when voters decided things. That's how outsiders BYU, Georgia Tech and Colorado were able to "win" their national titles. That is the reality.

This alignment vs the previous alignment might decrease our chances from 0.5% to 0.25%. That in and of itself is not that big a deal. The NIL and transfer rules have a FAR greater negative impact on an outsiders chance to win a national title than conference re-alignment does IMO.

 

[Pharm Frog]

My only thing is I very much hope that TCU is invested in conference solvency but more fully invested in self-interest.

 

[BrewingFrog]

You certainly stated what should not be done… now please advise as to your viable alternative.

(Insert Taxi Driver line here...)

Anybody but UH and BYU.

We're in a miserable situation, and with bungled opportunities, wasted gestures, and stupid negotiating, it's getting even worse. BYU is a cancer. They've proved that over and over. Talking with them about inclusion means that Count Dracula U. already turned you down. UH is just another of many options, none of which are appetizing. Their inclusion would just dilute things among existing Members. Why do so?

In UCF, there is an anchor (in the good sense) in the Eastern Time Zone. Go and get two Programs from the Mountain Time Zone. Spread things out. Regional rivalries we've already got. Move afield and make the overall package more attractive to content providers. I posited Nevada and New Mexico for the simple reasons that they're available, are decent travel locations, and are in a desirable TZ.

In the end, it really doesn't matter. It's all over and done with, and they're just waiting for next week to announce it.

"Old man yells at cloud!"

 

[Pharm Frog]

The only time "outsiders" had a legitimate chance to win a national title was in the pre-playoff era when voters decided things. That's how outsiders BYU, Georgia Tech and Colorado were able to "win" their national titles. That is the reality.

This alignment vs the previous alignment might decrease our chances from 0.5% to 0.25%. That in and of itself is not that big a deal. The NIL and transfer rules have a FAR greater negative impact on an outsiders chance to win a national title than conference re-alignment does IMO.

I agree with this and any “conference” viability now must be in large part measured against its members ability to compete at the NIL game. Which coincidentally is why I have low interest in conference additions or alignments.

 

[Jared7]

I understand options are limited and wish nothing but the best for the future of TCU but this all feels like 2nd tier. Call me unrealistic and delusional but I want TCU to win a national title and not sure they wold be able to do it under this structure. The “haves” are going to do everything possible to prevent outsiders having a chance. This alignment may seal that deal.

The new alignment arguably increases our chances for a title for the simple reason that OU is leaving and the other teams will be easier to beat. We're 1-9 against the Sooners in the Big 12 and only beat them in 2014 when we almost made the 4-team CFP. And, if the new 12-team CFP eventually comes into being, it'll increase our chances even more especially considering that we would have made 8 12-team CFP's in the past 25 years if that system had been in place. That said, our overall chances at a title remain very small; especially given the new NIL rules and potential deregulation of direct payments to players (or increased stipends). We'd have to go undefeated (probably) and get some breaks along the way and that's only happened twice (1938 and 2010) in our history.

 

[Austintxfrog94]

The new alignment arguably increases our chances for a title for the simple reason that OU is leaving and the other teams will be easier to beat. We're 1-9 against the Sooners in the Big 12 and only beat them in 2014 when we almost made the 4-team CFP. And, if the new 12-team CFP eventually comes into being, it'll increase our chances even more especially considering that we would have made 8 12-team CFP's in the past 25 years if that system had been in place. That said, our overall chances at a title remain very small; especially given the new NIL rules and potential deregulation of direct payments to players (or increased stipends). We'd have to go undefeated (probably) and get some breaks along the way and that's only happened twice (1938 and 2010) in our history.

Hope you’re right, I’ll gladly be wrong if it means TCU success.

 

[Moose Stuff]

The only time "outsiders" had a legitimate chance to win a national title was in the pre-playoff era when voters decided things. That's how outsiders BYU, Georgia Tech and Colorado were able to "win" their national titles. That is the reality.

This alignment vs the previous alignment might decrease our chances from 0.5% to 0.25%. That in and of itself is not that big a deal. The NIL and transfer rules have a FAR greater negative impact on an outsiders chance to win a national title than conference re-alignment does IMO.

The NIL rule completely tips the scales in favor of the big state school blue bloods. 100% no doubt about it. I think the transfer thing ends up being a wash though. Will we eventually lose a really good TCU player because of it? Absolutely. But we’ll also get our fair share of guys leaving those big schools. And now that we won’t be in the same conference with any of these regional blue bloods we won’t have their coaches not wanting them to play for us. We need to become where the kids leaving OU/UT/A&M/LSU end up. You could almost argue that it ends up benefitting us.

 

[Jared7]

The NIL rule completely tips the scales in favor of the big state school blue bloods. 100% no doubt about it. I think the transfer thing ends up being a wash though. Will we eventually lose a really good TCU player because of it? Absolutely. But we’ll also get our fair share of guys leaving those big schools. And now that we won’t be in the same conference with any of these regional blue bloods we won’t have their coaches not wanting them to play for us. We need to become where the kids leaving OU/UT/A&M/LSU end up. You could almost argue that it ends up benefitting us.

I think that depends on whether the 85-scholarship limit remains in place. Which depends on what happens at the NCAA Constitutional Convention later this Fall. There has been some talk - mostly in SEC circles - about eliminating that NCAA rule or raising the limit. Which, if the NCAA goes away or is seriously weakened would be up to the individual conferences to regulate. During our MWC days, I remember reading the annual DMN list of HS juniors/seniors and being utterly shocked that dozens of players listed their first choice as UT, OU, A&M and the like, but whose 2nd choice/fallback position was TCU. Back then, we were branded as the "alternative" in case a player's first choice didn't pan out. Because that often happened, Patterson was able to recruit enough quality players for our 2008-2011 run. That is where I hope we remain in this new era.

If the scholarship limit goes away or is significantly changed, it'll be the Darrel Royal era all over again where the bluebloods just stockpile virtually all the top recruits and have well over 100+ players on scholly. But even then, with the new transfer rules, there will still be transfers among players who never get their expected playing time.

 

[Wexahu]

The NIL rule completely tips the scales in favor of the big state school blue bloods. 100% no doubt about it. I think the transfer thing ends up being a wash though. Will we eventually lose a really good TCU player because of it? Absolutely. But we’ll also get our fair share of guys leaving those big schools. And now that we won’t be in the same conference with any of these regional blue bloods we won’t have their coaches not wanting them to play for us. We need to become where the kids leaving OU/UT/A&M/LSU end up. You could almost argue that it ends up benefitting us.

It could turn out that way. Both are destructive to competitive balance for sure, but I still feel the transfer rule is a bigger thing.

Blue bloods already out-recruited everyone anyway, it's just going to stay that way with NIL rules. Their biggest vulnerabilities as programs were not evaluating kids well and/or sustaining key injuries at key positions, and being limited in how those players could be replaced. Now that problem goes away. They just go get a kid to fill the hole, from wherever they can get it.

NIL rule in place, but player has to skip a year?.......where do they get such player? ex.....Zach Evans probably isn't transferring if he can't play.
NIL rule not in place, but player doesn't have to skip a year?......they can still go get their guy to fill that hole.

I get that schools like TCU will benefit from transfers from blue bloods coming in, but by and large they are going to be kids that couldn't cut it at the blue blood, or at least kids the blue bloods weren't too crazy about keeping on their roster. I just think if you make transfer skip a year, it changes the whole landscape.

 

[Moose Stuff]

It could turn out that way. Both are destructive to competitive balance for sure, but I still feel the transfer rule is a bigger thing.

Blue bloods already out-recruited everyone anyway, it's just going to stay that way with NIL rules. Their biggest vulnerabilities as programs were not evaluating kids well and/or sustaining key injuries at key positions, and being limited in how those players could be replaced. Now that problem goes away. They just go get a kid to fill the hole, from wherever they can get it.

NIL rule in place, but player has to skip a year?.......where do they get such player? ex.....Zach Evans probably isn't transferring if he can't play.
NIL rule not in place, but player doesn't have to skip a year?......they can still go get their guy to fill that hole.

I get that schools like TCU will benefit from transfers from blue bloods coming in, but by and large they are going to be kids that couldn't cut it at the blue blood, or at least kids the blue bloods weren't too crazy about keeping on their roster. I just think if you make transfer skip a year, it changes the whole landscape.

Oh it all sucks, don’t get me wrong.

 

[fwfrog]

Time to cut the costs of the coaching staff, to reflect the reduction of payout!