Let's work this proposal through.
This could mean a lot of travel for TCU if this goes to divisions.
Big 16
North: OU, OSU, Washington, Oregon, WVU, KU, KSU, ISU
South: UT, TCU, Tech, BU, USC, UCLA, Arizona, ASU <-- That's a hell of a division.
or
East: OU, OSU, KU, KSU, ISU, WVU, Baylor, TCU <--- Way easier for TCU student athlete travel
West: UT, Tech, USC, UCLA, Arizona, ASU, Oregon, Washington
East/West divisions makes the most sense to me. Regular trips to Austin has to be appealing to West Coast schools if they were to make a move. This would also help them minimize perhaps less desirable trips for the former Pac schools to Ames, Waco, and all the way east to Morgantown.
Also... no permanent crossovers unless both schools wants it. Say OU vs UT. The "permanent" crossover SEC rivalry of Texas A&M vs South Carolina is a joke and should have never happened.
Sorry this got so long. TLDNR version: TCU should quietly, but aggressively, try to get into the ACC. Otherwise, we risk getting left out of the future Power Conference model.
LeagueCityFrog
et al,
What are the dynamics between the Pac's same-state schools? Would Oregon and Washington (the states) allow Oregon St. and Washington St. to be left out of any realignment, let alone separated from their sibling school? Also, would the Pac schools willingly drop Utah and Colorado in exchange for TCU and Baylor? I just don't see that happening.
However, if the ACC wants to get into Texas, then they could take either Baylor or TCU, and make Notre Dame a permanent member. In all honestly, both TCU and Baylor would fit perfectly in the ACC. But the ACC really only has one spot, because of Notre Dame.
At the end of the day, it seems like we are moving toward the 4x16 model, meaning there will be 64 Power Conference schools. It's like reverse plate tectonics. If you zoom out far enough, you can see
Pangaea is re-forming.
Here's the scary thing, though. There are currently 64 Power 5 schools, plus Notre Dame..which makes 65 schools but only 64 spots. Somebody will end up getting squeezed out, and it is in TCU's best interest to position ourselves for stability
now.
Think about it. No current SEC or ACC members are going to be pushed out, despite schools like Wake Forest and Northwestern bringing nothing to those conferences (besides academics). They are permanent fixtures, and those two conferences are built on solid ground. Nobody is leaving the ACC or SEC for the Big 12, even a new-and-improved one. The same can be said for the B1G. Although their newest members are worthless, they aren't going to kick any of them out, and none are poachable.
Do the math. The SEC and B1G both have two spots. The ACC has one spot.
That leaves the Big 12 and the Pac-12 members (22 schools) vying for 21 spots (16 in the new conference, plus 5 between the SEC-ACC-B1G). And that's if the B1G, ACC or SEC don't get stupid and go adding schools like UCF, Houston, etc. If that happens before any realignment, then TCU is definitely screwed (hypothetically).
So I ask you: Of the current Big 12 and Pac-12 schools, which one gets left out? In the hypothetical move to a 4x16 model, somebody isn't going to make it. Objectively, it would have to be either Baylor, TCU, West Virginia, Iowa State, Colorado, or Utah. None of those schools have any cover (or state partners) in the fight for survival.
I think West Virginia, Utah, Iowa State and Colorado make it in. So it really comes down to Baylor vs. TCU.
Big 16
Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, USC, Stanford, UCLA, Cal, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
B1G
+Colorado, +Kansas
SEC
+Kansas State, +West Virginia
ACC
+Notre Dame, +Baylor or TCU
The ACC could just as easily tag UCF or Houston, or some other school...Navy, for example...instead of Baylor or TCU. This is why I think TCU is vulnerable. Again, this is all hypothetical based on the 4x64 model. It might never come to fruition, but it sure does feel like that's where this is all headed. I don't think TCU should be passive here. Not saying we are being passive, but it's just hard not to look back at the demise of the SWC and remember how we were left in the dark, in the blistering cold.
Personally, I think we should be cozying up to the ACC every chance we get. TCU would do well to move there proactively, even if it means leaving our natural and geographic rivals behind. I'd rather have the long term security of the ACC and not roll the dice with the new Big 16. NONE of the current Big 12 schools will be looking out for TCU. And trying to convince the Pac-12 that a relatively small "religious sounding" private school is good fit, especially in the current political and cultural environment, is an exceedingly tough sales pitch.
I don't know if the ACC could take us proactively, but it sure wouldn't hurt to ask. Despite Baylor's flaws, they are looking like an equally (if not more) attractive option for the ACC. Having the foresight to build a relationship with the ACC now could pay dividends later. Being passive about it accomplishes nothing, and possibly seals TCU's fate.