Tough to see a young kid displacing any of our starters unless it's injury related. If we're 100% healthy we are gonna be young, fast, talented, and deep. Floor should be the last 8 IMO. I guess we should probably assume someone is gonna be hurt though given the history with Adams, Gio, and CP.
I agree that I'm struggling to see how most of the starting 11 could be overtaken. That said, in 2018 we didn't see the current starting 11 coming with maybe 2 exceptions (CP for sure and maybe McKennie). A lot of talent could develop over the next 3 years that isn't even on our radar yet. I'm not just talking about possible dual nationals either. MLS home grown players are having bigger and bigger impacts and are getting noticed at a higher rate by top European clubs. It's not unrealistic to see a couple breakthroughs into the starting 11 from them over the next couple years.
I think center back is one of those spots. Tim Ream was a liability for most of his career until the last couple years. He's old and seems to have reverted to bad form if the last friendly is any indication. He's know for great passing and decision-making out of the back, but that was his biggest flaw on Saturday. His spot if definitely open for a younger replacement in 2026, IMO. I'm also still not sold on Balogun. No American striker in history can boast a season like he had at Reims last year in a top 5 European league, but he hasn't produced yet for the Nats. Pepi has outperformed him since his debut and I still have Pepi scars that need to heal.
I do worry about injuries to Gio, Adams, and CP, but I still think there are some spots to be claimed before 2026.
I read an article over the weekend (can't remember where) that assessed the USMNT's performance in last year's WC in the context of prospects for 2026. The writer surmised that teams need 16+ top-end talents to compete for a WC title and, in his estimation, the U.S. only had 12-13 in Qatar. So while the starting talent was there, the depth was lacking. He also made a compelling argument that the U.S. performed very well against the Dutch and the 3-1 score wasn't indicative of how close that game was.
Basically, he concluded the Nats need to shore up three areas to have a chance to make a run in 2026.
1) They've got to create more chances. They possessed well in Qatar even in the attacking third, but didn't generate enough chances from that possession. Most of that seems to be having no clear option for distributors to find with the ball in dangerous places.
2) They need to finish the chances when they get them. They need an elite striker who can making scoring goals easier for everyone else too.
3) They need 3-4 more top-end guys for depth in key places. The writer didn't say this, but I think those spots are striker (obviously), #6 behind Adams, one more center back, and one more central midfielder.
That's a pretty short list to develop in 3 years. Striker is the only one of those I worry about. What's really encouraging is the group that did so well in Qatar will be 4 years older with 4 years more experience in top European leagues, just entering their primes, and should be deeper in 3 years with more young talent coming into the player pool.