Big 12 in position to poach Pac 12 schools?

[Gary's Shirtless Revenge]

Okay @Gary's Shirtless Revenge , you always said that college basketball had some kind of hidden value. Will they allow this spin off ?

CBB used to be sold separately, not entirely a new concept and certainly possible. I’m aware of a few of the ideas he’s mentioned to people about prioritizing and monetizing it over the next 10 years and I think he’s both a little crazy and ingenious. A lot depends on what happens with the NCAA and the tournament too.

 

[Frozen Frog]

The Big Ten will always be able to select the best schools they want in their conference. I think they have a list of about 10 that would be targets. The SEC I think will look more at adding content. They don't really have enough programming to fill a network throughout the year. Basketball and other sports would help. If I had to guess the next 4 schools the SEC targets it is is UNC, Duke, UVA, and Kansas. That opens some new markets for the SEC while solidifying others. That also means the ACC is dead. I don't the SEC has much interest in FSU, Miami, or Clemson. They already have a pretty good control of those markets. Now those may open something for the Big 12. If Big 12 goes to 20 which I don't think is crazy if you do pods then there is probably 1 spot remaining. Is it Loserville, a west coast school, a major NE school like Syracuse, or Pitt? Of those my choice would be Pitt.

I don't know if 3 conferences is the goal. I worry if the some anti-monopoly laws might get used.

 

[Dutch]

The importance of basketball for the Big 12 and TCU. @Gary's Shirtless Revenge has mentioned this undervalued buckets media secret several times over the last 1.5 years.

I speculate hoops is a big factor why the new Big 12 remains competitive in media value relative to the PAC and ACC.

From the article—
Yormark strongly believes basketball is undervalued in these TV rights talks. He has dropped hints about an interest in unbundling it from football and selling those rights separately when the Big 12 next hits the market in 2030-31. That’s one motivation behind the Big 12’s continued talks with hoops powerhouse Gonzaga. Joining as a non-football member would mean a smaller revenue share for the Bulldogs, but they’d be an inarguably valuable addition. Arizona, a top-10 program with more Pac-12 titles than every school but Big Ten-bound UCLA, would similarly boost the best conference in men’s college basketball and its long-term ambitions.

“I think we have an opportunity to monetize basketball in a way that hasn’t been done before,” Yormark said in an appearance on the Wilner & Canzano podcast last month. “It’s certainly something I’m thinking about. So if the opportunity ever exists where, within the construct of what makes sense for expansion, as part of that, we could double down on basketball and further cement our leadership position, it’s certainly something

Yes, they did have CUSA wins over 4 and 5 loss teams W. Ky. & N. Texas, so I guess that counts, but they’ve never finished a season inside the top 25 rankings.

I agree, the pickings are slim and UTSA is probably around the top 5.

The rankings for Group of 5 teams based on national prominence, athletic achievement, & brand recognition probably looks something like
1) Boise, 2) SDSU, 3) SMU, 4) Tulane, 5) Fresno St., UTSA, Memphis, USF, Coastal Carolina.

…but other than Boise (finished ranked 9 times in last 15 years), none deserve an upgrade.

For SMU it’s now or never for athletics. They now share a conference with North Texas and Rice. I fear they got their hopes up for nothing.

 

[Dogfrog]

They aren't all stellar schools/programs and many of them haven't had winning teams in a long time, but as much as people talk about how they aren't any good, the Big 12 would gladly take every single school in those leagues with the exception of Northwestern and Vandy, and they'd be considered great additions.

It's all large (and in many cases, huge) flagship public schools with those two exceptions, plus USC. Almost impossible to compete with that in the "general fan interest" category, and that's what drives the whole thing.

On the one hand we are discussing whether some schools in SEC and B1G are worthy to be in a hypothetical top 2 league. On the other you are suggesting we would take those schools under the current P5 circumstances. Don’t see the relevance.

 

[Hemingway]

The Big Ten will always be able to select the best schools they want in their conference. I think they have a list of about 10 that would be targets. The SEC I think will look more at adding content. They don't really have enough programming to fill a network throughout the year. Basketball and other sports would help. If I had to guess the next 4 schools the SEC targets it is is UNC, Duke, UVA, and Kansas. That opens some new markets for the SEC while solidifying others. That also means the ACC is dead. I don't the SEC has much interest in FSU, Miami, or Clemson. They already have a pretty good control of those markets. Now those may open something for the Big 12. If Big 12 goes to 20 which I don't think is crazy if you do pods then there is probably 1 spot remaining. Is it Loserville, a west coast school, a major NE school like Syracuse, or Pitt? Of those my choice would be Pitt.

I don't know if 3 conferences is the goal. I worry if the some anti-monopoly laws might get used.

Kansas ? I just don’t see that one happening. Maybe to the Big Ten? But at some point the leftover league will cobble enough good teams together that maybe people don’t leave

 

[82 Frog Fever]

These two P12 commentators, Monty and Jake, have been correct on some of the stuff they’ve said so far, if they’re right now, the Pac12 will crumble fast. It starts at 1 min 30 secs.

The Monty Show 902: Is The PAC 12 Losing The 4 Corners To The "Truck Stop Boys"?

Monty & Jake are talking PAC 12 implosion with new details on the current state of the PAC 12 where the conference stands on expansion. Will the "4 Corner Sc...

www.youtube.com

 

[Hemingway]

These two P12 commentators, Monty and Jake, have been correct on some of the stuff they’ve said so far, if they’re right now, the Pac12 will crumble fast.

The Monty Show 902: Is The PAC 12 Losing The 4 Corners To The "Truck Stop Boys"?

Monty & Jake are talking PAC 12 implosion with new details on the current state of the PAC 12 where the conference stands on expansion. Will the "4 Corner Sc...

www.youtube.com

Holy bleep Batman. 22 million a year. Lol

 

[TCUdirtbag]

Starting to assume the ACC falls apart by 2036, then the B1G/SEC strike and try to spin off to a Power 2. As soon as the big two expand again the CFP as we know it - even as expanded - will fall apart because they won’t want the Big 12, ACC, or PAC champs to have an automatic berth or similar revenue sharing. When the auto berths fall so too does the CFP. I could then see the “best of the rest” conference forming and through CFP structure negotiating near relevance.

Making up numbers because who knows how big the B1G and SEC go, but if the Big 2 go to 24 each:

B1G adds: UW, Oregon, ND, Arizona, UVA, UNC, and then 2 more (among Miami, GT, Colorado, KU, TCU, or UH) chasing their media strategy.

SEC adds FSU, Clemson, NC State. VA Tech, Pitt, and then 3 more (among WVU, Miami, ASU, TCU, Tech, Baylor, OSU, KU) chasing their competitiveness and cultural fit strategy.

The above that get left out pick up Duke, Wake, BC, Syracuse, K-State, Louisville, Iowa State, BYU, Utah, Cal, Stanford, Cinci, and have the start of a nice and competitive but clear second class conference.

Point is: the next 10 years are temporary. We have to sustain winning programs at the highest levels and work behind the scenes to get a coveted invite as the smallest P2 school that doesn’t fit into a lot of the traditional metrics that warrant invites. And we really need to stay well ahead of BU TTU and UH to become the clear choice should the B1G look to Texas.

 

[This Ain't Chopped Liver]

These two P12 commentators, Monty and Jake, have been correct on some of the stuff they’ve said so far, if they’re right now, the Pac12 will crumble fast. It starts at 1 min 30 secs.

The Monty Show 902: Is The PAC 12 Losing The 4 Corners To The "Truck Stop Boys"?

Monty & Jake are talking PAC 12 implosion with new details on the current state of the PAC 12 where the conference stands on expansion. Will the "4 Corner Sc...

www.youtube.com

Noted that they suggest part of the reason for the rumored low $22M per team is because the value in that After Dark time slot is diminishing now that you have to compete against Big Ten USC and UCLA in After Dark. The Big Ten is now #1 in that slot and any other conference is 2nd chair.

 

[Eight]

Starting to assume the ACC falls apart by 2036, then the B1G/SEC strike and try to spin off to a Power 2. As soon as the big two expand again the CFP as we know it - even as expanded - will fall apart because they won’t want the Big 12, ACC, or PAC champs to have an automatic berth or similar revenue sharing. When the auto berths fall so too does the CFP. I could then see the “best of the rest” conference forming and through CFP structure negotiating near relevance.

Making up numbers because who knows how big the B1G and SEC go, but if the Big 2 go to 24 each:

B1G adds: UW, Oregon, ND, Arizona, UVA, UNC, and then 2 more (among Miami, GT, Colorado, KU, TCU, or UH) chasing their media strategy.

SEC adds FSU, Clemson, NC State. VA Tech, Pitt, and then 3 more (among WVU, Miami, ASU, TCU, Tech, Baylor, OSU, KU) chasing their competitiveness and cultural fit strategy.

The above that get left out pick up Duke, Wake, BC, Syracuse, K-State, Louisville, Iowa State, BYU, Utah, Cal, Stanford, Cinci, and have the start of a nice and competitive but clear second class conference.

Point is: the next 10 years are temporary. We have to sustain winning programs at the highest levels and work behind the scenes to get a coveted invite as the smallest P2 school that doesn’t fit into a lot of the traditional metrics that warrant invites. And we really need to stay well ahead of BU TTU and UH to become the clear choice should the B1G look to Texas.

agree with you, especially that idea that the most important thing tcu can do is keep winning, but 2036?

heck, we have posters on here who don't even buy green bananas anymore

they need this conference stuff to play out sooner than that

 

[TCUdirtbag]

agree with you, especially that idea that the most important thing tcu can do is keep winning, but 2036?

heck, we have posters on here who don't even buy green bananas anymore

they need this conference stuff to play out sooner than that

End of ACC contract. ESPN has them locked up cheap and zero incentive to pay more for the content they already have.

The CFP negotiations that will gear up soon will tell us a lot about where things are headed

 

[Limey Frog]

Holy bleep Batman. 22 million a year. Lol

Jason Scheer is still saying around $26M




His segment on [sorry for this] Waco's 247 sports talk show was illuminating:




Basically Scheer says the Pac is done within five years no matter what, and if the money is $25M with mostly streaming it might implode now. Pac ADs (and presidents?) will meet this week at the conference tournament (on Wednesday), and Kliavkoff will tell them what he's being offered/by whom. The money won't likely be great, but Pac presidents have a track record of poor decisions in this area and might just take a bad deal in order to kick the can down the road. Lastly, Scheer said nothing big will happen (if it's going to) until after the NCAA tournament.

Also, FWIW, John Canzano is saying that Oregon is "way on board" and the Pac's money will match the Big 12's:




Based on location, past reporting and recent interviews, Canzano's best sources seem to be in the Bay Area schools, the Pac office, and Oregon State/Wazzu (i.e., they're all people who use him to put out pro-Pac stories/rumors).

It all comes down to who's claim is correct. If the money is $22M per school, it's curtains. If it's $26M, who knows? If it's $30M, they'll probably sign a deal unless Oregon get's into the Big Ten this month (which seems unlikely).

 

[East Coast]

Starting to assume the ACC falls apart by 2036, then the B1G/SEC strike and try to spin off to a Power 2. As soon as the big two expand again the CFP as we know it - even as expanded - will fall apart because they won’t want the Big 12, ACC, or PAC champs to have an automatic berth or similar revenue sharing. When the auto berths fall so too does the CFP. I could then see the “best of the rest” conference forming and through CFP structure negotiating near relevance.

Making up numbers because who knows how big the B1G and SEC go, but if the Big 2 go to 24 each:

B1G adds: UW, Oregon, ND, Arizona, UVA, UNC, and then 2 more (among Miami, GT, Colorado, KU, TCU, or UH) chasing their media strategy.

SEC adds FSU, Clemson, NC State. VA Tech, Pitt, and then 3 more (among WVU, Miami, ASU, TCU, Tech, Baylor, OSU, KU) chasing their competitiveness and cultural fit strategy.

The above that get left out pick up Duke, Wake, BC, Syracuse, K-State, Louisville, Iowa State, BYU, Utah, Cal, Stanford, Cinci, and have the start of a nice and competitive but clear second class conference.

Point is: the next 10 years are temporary. We have to sustain winning programs at the highest levels and work behind the scenes to get a coveted invite as the smallest P2 school that doesn’t fit into a lot of the traditional metrics that warrant invites. And we really need to stay well ahead of BU TTU and UH to become the clear choice should the B1G look to Texas.

At that point, I'm beginning to think the haves in the SEC and Big1G will blow up their conferences and leave their brands behind them. Along the way they jettison Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Purdue, Indiana, probably Rutgers, Mississippi State and Mizzou. At that point, they could form however they want, 1 league with 4 division of 8-12 schools for example. If the final number is closer to 32, you could end up with 2 somewhat viable 2nd tier conferences, which the big boys could use for out of conference games if they wanted. Everyone else just might as well go FCS.

 

[Big Frog II]

Who knows what the real offer is at this point. If it is 75% streaming I would want out fast.

 

[Hemingway]

Who knows what the real offer is at this point. If it is 75% streaming I would want out fast.

Those were Utah sources, people within the athletic department mad at the admin. Probably a true reflection of the media deal.

 

[Dogfrog]

I recall this 2022 sports illustrated piece ranking the value of each school. This ranks by football, other sports, academics, attendance, and viewership. TCU was at 37, ahead of five B1G schools and that was before football season. There will be other politics involved, but interesting.

https://www.si.com/.amp/college/2022/07/14/power-5-desirability-rankings-sec-big-ten-acc

 

[TCUdirtbag]

At that point, I'm beginning to think the haves in the SEC and Big1G will blow up their conferences and leave their brands behind them. Along the way they jettison Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Purdue, Indiana, probably Rutgers, Mississippi State and Mizzou. At that point, they could form however they want, 1 league with 4 division of 8-12 schools for example. If the final number is closer to 32, you could end up with 2 somewhat viable 2nd tier conferences, which the big boys could use for out of conference games if they wanted. Everyone else just might as well go FCS.

Extremely unlikely in the short/medium term. My guess is at least loosely based on contractual timing and interests etc. Kicking teams out of the SEC/B1G is a stretch that would be a couple other sea changes away.

 

[East Coast]

Extremely unlikely in the short/medium term. My guess is at least loosely based on contractual timing and interests etc. Kicking teams out of the SEC/B1G is a stretch that would be a couple other sea changes away.

I'm thinking more about 10 years from now, but yes, kicking schools out of a conference is extremely difficult. This is why the biggest programs would have to leave their conferences and the conference brand behind. It would create an entirely new landscape.

 

[82 Frog Fever]

ESPN is laughing in Kliavkoff’s face.
“Oh, too soon?” The more I watch it, the more I think it was on purpose.

 

[Hemingway]

ESPN is laughing Kliavkoff’s face.
“Oh, too soon?” The more I watch it, the more I think it was on purpose.

The rumors from one of these prognosticators out there has been pointing to a March 7 meeting for weeks now. So we’ll see.