Big 12 in position to poach Pac 12 schools?
- Thread starter TCU Vagabond
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Gary's Shirtless Revenge
Full Member
Too low and yes.
No idea, I’d assume their top dollar offer will be around $30mm all in including the network
Gary's Shirtless Revenge
Full Member
We’re betting on future value with all of them other than BYU.
ticketfrog123
Active Member
Well…not sure UH is ever going to have a huge domestic student pool that cares
82 Frog Fever
Active Member
It’s very “iffy”
If their media deal comes in around $30m next month, similar to B12, they probably move forward and invite SDSU & SMU.
If they get $30m, any further conference reorg. probably depends on the B10 inviting Wash/Oregon/Others
If they fall to 90% or below the $30m; it’s possible the 4 corner schools & maybe others start looking toward the B12.
If their media deal comes in around $30m next month, similar to B12, they probably move forward and invite SDSU & SMU.
If they get $30m, any further conference reorg. probably depends on the B10 inviting Wash/Oregon/Others
If they fall to 90% or below the $30m; it’s possible the 4 corner schools & maybe others start looking toward the B12.
Big Frog II
Active Member
I would think inviting SMU would dilute their per school TV money. They really bring nothing to the table audience wise.
82 Frog Fever
Active Member
Me too, but when I look at their list of Mountain West candidates, they’re just as bad and don’t even come close to Pac12 academic requirements.
I guess they could stay at only 10 teams, but that leaves no room for error, if just 1 team leaves, they could be done.
Jefffrog1993
KMA
Boise State? To pac 12?
Horned Toad
Active Member
I think the PAC inviting SMU would be a good choice for them. DFW is a great market and they would be getting their network into Texas and the central time zone for recruiting and eyeballs. There is just not a lot of other options for them. I doubt they could pick off any Big 12 teams. San Diego St. Is about their only other option. Who else is left that could expand their market? San Jose St., Boise, New Mexico, Wyoming, none of those would move the needle marketwise. SMU is an obvious choice.
Cougar/Frog
Active Member
The problem for the PAC is linear vs streaming. Going Amazon or Apple for tier 1 is going to hurt status and viewership. NFL Thursday viewership declined with Amazon and the NFL is a far better product than the PAC which already has viewership issues.
The Big Ten turned down more money with Amazon.
Broadcast is the best and worth taking lower money.
PAC just isn't getting higher money without going Amazon or Apple. And to accept Amazon or Apple is accepting irrelevancy.
The Big Ten turned down more money with Amazon.
Broadcast is the best and worth taking lower money.
PAC just isn't getting higher money without going Amazon or Apple. And to accept Amazon or Apple is accepting irrelevancy.
Dogfrog
Active Member
Nothing really left in Texas IMO. If I had an irresistible urge to move into Texas, I’d rather take a flier on UTSA than SMU.
82 Frog Fever
Active Member
I’m a believer in Murphy’s Law, so I’m always looking for what could possibly go wrong.
What if the Pac12 gets their $30m, which is likely, and becomes roughly equal to the B12 in terms of media rights dollars.
Now they turn toward expansion.
What if they invite BYU and the money is roughly equal to the B12?
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Big Frog II
Active Member
Getting into a market where no one cares about the Pac 12 or SMU is a waste of time and money.
Brog
Full Member
Mary Hardin Baylor?
fanatical frog
Full Member
BYU fan base hates Utah. Utah fan base hates BYU. They don't care to renew the rivalry. Utah would veto BYU who wouldn't leave if invited. Check out the cougarboard some time and you'll see what I mean....or just ask CougarFrog.
Creeperfrog
Active Member
Hate is a great thing in sports and I would think more hate brings more coverage and maybe more money?
Eight
Member
exactly what the ags would say about texas and we know how that played out
fanatical frog
Full Member
The PAC __ took Utah originally when BYU would have been a better choice. They passed on BYU because they didn't welcome Church affiliated schools at that time....desperation could change all that, doubtful, but who knows.
The PAC already has the Utah market why would they want BYU....as many on this board have said relative to the B12 adding Utah...we already have the Utah market so the Utes add no incremental value.
When the PAC__ took Colorado their first choice was Kansas.....in the unlikely event the PAC 12 decides to raid the B12 you'd think Kansas might be their first choice rather than the Church affiliated school. But why would either Kansas or BYU change conferences for less money.
Finally, the PAC has no allure without UCLA and USC. They are dead man walking and refuse to accept that reality. Why would any school join dead man walking....for less money.
Harsh, but realistic.
The PAC already has the Utah market why would they want BYU....as many on this board have said relative to the B12 adding Utah...we already have the Utah market so the Utes add no incremental value.
When the PAC__ took Colorado their first choice was Kansas.....in the unlikely event the PAC 12 decides to raid the B12 you'd think Kansas might be their first choice rather than the Church affiliated school. But why would either Kansas or BYU change conferences for less money.
Finally, the PAC has no allure without UCLA and USC. They are dead man walking and refuse to accept that reality. Why would any school join dead man walking....for less money.
Harsh, but realistic.
Limey Frog
Full Member
This MHVer3 character claims to know people everywhere and just predicts everything; eventually he'll be right about something and cite that endlessly as proof.
I know nobody; I just read the things that are published by journalists. I think the Big XII and Pac 10 are in roughly equal positions right now, but I think the Big XII is trending up and the Pac trending down.
Here's what I think will happen:
No schools are leaving the Pac for the Big XII as long as Oregon and UW aren't going to the Big Ten soon, which they aren't. No defections are imminent; the Pac is not about to collapse.
The Pac will sign a media rights deal in the next month worth roughly equal money to the Big XII's. Their 'game of the week' will be on CBS, the rest will be on Amazon Prime and ESPN+, which Kliavkoff will sell as a forward-thinking move but which will make their games obscure for the immediate term future. The deal will be for five years because Oregon wants another run at begging their way into the Big Ten at the beginning of the next rights negotiation cycle.
The Pac will agree to let all programs keep most or all of the revenue generated by their post-season appearances, so when the 12-team playoff starts Oregon will either win the conference every year and keep all of that cash, permitting them to operate at a different level to their conference mates, or they won't actually win the conference and will get commensurately more desperate as each year goes by. I think Oregon under Lanning will dominate that league, get all the cash, and sow the seeds of some major future discord.
San Diego State and SMU will be invited to the new Pac 12 by about June of this year, making SMU football more prestigious and the Pac less so by equal degrees.
By about 2030 the Big XII will have more TV viewers in football by far, a better playoff record, a larger number of conference members to appear in the playoff, and the general goodwill that comes from equal revenue sharing. The Pac will have numerous members fed up of being second-class citizens behind two programs that are only biding their time for a Big Ten invite anyway. At that point, and not before then, Utah and Arizona might take the Big XII's phone calls. Or the Big Ten might take Oregon's, which amounts to the same thing.
The Big XII should never take Oregon as anything but an absolutely equal member. We're just getting rid of Texas and OU, we don't need more of that kind of nonsense from a program with even less historical reason to act like an entitled gorilla. Personally, I'd love to have the 'Four Corners' schools, but I'm just as happy to see the Pac 12 stabilize and last long-term. I like the 12-member league we're going to have as of 2024 and I don't think we need anything else.
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