• The KillerFrogs

Has anyone seen my specialty plates?

nwlafrog

Active Member
Fell to the second page. Bumping to say that I’m back in town. Glad to be back. Also to contribute to the blood clot talk from a few pages back, my wife had one the day that we got back from Las Vegas from our anniversary trip about it a month ago. She’s 27yrs old. Scared me to the core. She’s okay and they are still running some periodical tests. I have some other medical news that is difficult to talk about and I’d imagine in time I’ll bring it up.

Also, wanted to brag about a new addition to the gun safe. The Ruger 57 5.7x28mm. Pretty cool pistol. Downside is ammo is not cheap.

FAF48B9D-CAF3-4DAA-9DD3-F329E5DE8599.jpeg
 
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nwlafrog

Active Member
Also, I buy stuff at a distributor price and therefore have someone in the loop.

If anyone has a 7.62x39 AK or AR platform…. Better stock up. Went from about .10c to .60c yesterday after whatever sanctions Russia just received for whatever they did. It will grow to .308 prices before it’s settled. I couldn’t keep up with the details of the story.
 

Paul in uhh

Active Member
Fell to the second page. Bumping to say that I’m back in town. Glad to be back. Also to contribute to the blood clot talk from a few pages back, my wife had one the day that we got back from Las Vegas from our anniversary trip about it a month ago. She’s 27yrs old. Scared me to the core. She’s okay and they are still running some periodical tests. I have some other medical news that is difficult to talk about and I’d imagine in time I’ll bring it up.

Also, wanted to brag about a new addition to the gun safe. The Ruger 57 5.7x28mm. Pretty cool pistol. Downside is ammo is not cheap.

View attachment 9529
Not to rain on the parade (I appreciate a good pistol) but I don’t understand why someone would buy a weapon with expensive or rare ammo. They’re useless without bullets.
 

nwlafrog

Active Member
Not to rain on the parade (I appreciate a good pistol) but I don’t understand why someone would buy a weapon with expensive or rare ammo. They’re useless without bullets.

Its not rare lol. It’s just not cheap ammo. That’s why my next message was referring to pretty much the cheapest round available getting a big hike in price.
 
A few realignment notes, hidden in HASMSP for now:

- In terms of the "TCU to the PAC 12 was this close" story, nothing was "this close" however it isn't off the table either. The chatter around the folks I know at TCU is that we are committed to the Big 12, unless somebody else calls. The current plan is the Big 12 won't ask its members to re-up their GOR until the next TV contract negotiations start, which could be several years, so that gives TCU freedom to continue to look for a better fit. That might just be the Pac 12, or another conference. Once the Big 12 GOR is signed, we are committed, so its a race against that clock. More later.

- The four that got added... As you might have assumed, my initial "prediction" wasn't entirely homegrown, but things changed quickly for the conference when they got a report back from their TV consultants on the potential of a 12 team conference with the four members they ultimately added. USF was ahead of Cincinnati in the data, but only by a little, and the AD's just didn't believe USF had made enough investments to-date to warrant an invite. At least you can say the other four had already made the requisite investments and are or have been playing at a high level. I do still believe the Big 12 will likely add a few more members over time: USF, Boise (likely fball only or maybe fball+bball), Memphis, CSU, and SMU are on the list. Hypothetically, if TCU was to leave the conference, SMU would jump up in the rankings significantly.

- BYU as a full member... At first, BYU was being discussed as FBALL only and BYU knew that. However, as time went on and the TV analysis was received, it became clear that A) BYU added more value as a full member, and B) There was less resistance to them and their no-Sunday rule inside the conference. Turns out, amongst university presidents, that was a bit of an old book, and the league figured it could accommodate the Sunday rule more easily than assumed. Also, I understand BYU has agreed that it will waive the rule for non-scheduled events. For instance, if a Saturday game has to be canceled for weather and games have to be played on Sunday to accommodate some deadline or significant need, they will consent to doing so. This all needs to get sorted out more formally, but that's where the discussion ended up. All other "BYU special rules" were waived, and BYU will act/participate as a member under the Big 12's rules/expectations.

- Timing of entry... Despite what was said publicly, all four members are looking to join ASAP but no later than 2024-2025, including BYU. Truth be told, it's too early to know what will happen, but it's not unreasonable to assume all four will join in 2024-2025. For BYU, it's about ESPN and future football schedules, and for the AAC schools it's all about ESPN and the upcoming TV discussions. If ESPN plays ball, I think the AAC will be more flexible and they could join in 2023-2024. We shall see.

- Revenue distribution... This is still being discussed and will depend on the status of the TV contracts when the time comes, but all four members are expected to pay a 4 or 5 year "entry fee" via reduced conference revenue distributions. The totals, and duration, will depend on the size and length of the Big 12's current and/or new TV contract when the time comes. There is NO carve out for BYU, all four will have the same pay-in plan.

- Why now?... The league was advised and agreed (Oliver Luck was a big part) that adding the "obvious four" now vs later would be highly important to maintaining their CFP payouts in the future. The league needed to show stability and strength, and sell its future to the athletics world. Now, will this work? I don't believe so, in that the league might keep their autonomy status but will likely have to agree to reduced payouts in the new CFP... The other four leagues just don't see the new Big 12 as the same value/thing, and they will extract some $$ to keep for themselves. However, things do look better than they did (this could change), a few weeks ago most in the Big 12 assumed the new conference would see their distributions from the CFP drop much more dramatically. We shall see what happens. Keep in mind: It isn't really about autonomy status, it's about CFP revenue shares. Why feed 5 mouths when you could feed 4.5?

- Don't overlook CBB... This played an important role in the media analysis. The Big 12's MBB inventory is going to be HIGHLY sought after if they can keep the membership as it is today for their next deal. I can tell you for sure that ESPN will be the #1 bidder for this inventory, as it's some of the most profitable material they have and they know it helps drive and keep ESPN+ memberships. One source I know and trust has told me the Big 12 is #2 in importance to ESPN+ next to the ACC amongst college conferences, but is probably #1 long term... I believe it.

- What's next for TX/OU... First, the SEC needs a new deal, they are working on this with ESPN. ESPN has to work to get CBS to sell their Saturday inventory early. Regardless, once this new deal is done and TX/OU have their entrance fees/etc. worked out, then they will know exactly when and how they will leave the Big 12. I think the Big 12 adding these 4 new members made it MORE likely that they leave either before the 2023 or 2024 season, but ESPN holds all the cards.

- Keep an eye on... The CFP expansion. If the leagues can come to an agreement on this, lots of things will be set in motion. If they punt it down the road, things will slow down. Regardless, FOX's negotiations with the BIG, and ESPN with the SEC, are the top things moving right now after the CFP, and both will affect dominoes in the Big 12 and elsewhere. A TON is going to happen and change between now and 1 year from now, I believe, so buckle up.
 

HG73

Active Member
A few realignment notes, hidden in HASMSP for now:

- In terms of the "TCU to the PAC 12 was this close" story, nothing was "this close" however it isn't off the table either. The chatter around the folks I know at TCU is that we are committed to the Big 12, unless somebody else calls. The current plan is the Big 12 won't ask its members to re-up their GOR until the next TV contract negotiations start, which could be several years, so that gives TCU freedom to continue to look for a better fit. That might just be the Pac 12, or another conference. Once the Big 12 GOR is signed, we are committed, so its a race against that clock. More later.

- The four that got added... As you might have assumed, my initial "prediction" wasn't entirely homegrown, but things changed quickly for the conference when they got a report back from their TV consultants on the potential of a 12 team conference with the four members they ultimately added. USF was ahead of Cincinnati in the data, but only by a little, and the AD's just didn't believe USF had made enough investments to-date to warrant an invite. At least you can say the other four had already made the requisite investments and are or have been playing at a high level. I do still believe the Big 12 will likely add a few more members over time: USF, Boise (likely fball only or maybe fball+bball), Memphis, CSU, and SMU are on the list. Hypothetically, if TCU was to leave the conference, SMU would jump up in the rankings significantly.

- BYU as a full member... At first, BYU was being discussed as FBALL only and BYU knew that. However, as time went on and the TV analysis was received, it became clear that A) BYU added more value as a full member, and B) There was less resistance to them and their no-Sunday rule inside the conference. Turns out, amongst university presidents, that was a bit of an old book, and the league figured it could accommodate the Sunday rule more easily than assumed. Also, I understand BYU has agreed that it will waive the rule for non-scheduled events. For instance, if a Saturday game has to be canceled for weather and games have to be played on Sunday to accommodate some deadline or significant need, they will consent to doing so. This all needs to get sorted out more formally, but that's where the discussion ended up. All other "BYU special rules" were waived, and BYU will act/participate as a member under the Big 12's rules/expectations.

- Timing of entry... Despite what was said publicly, all four members are looking to join ASAP but no later than 2024-2025, including BYU. Truth be told, it's too early to know what will happen, but it's not unreasonable to assume all four will join in 2024-2025. For BYU, it's about ESPN and future football schedules, and for the AAC schools it's all about ESPN and the upcoming TV discussions. If ESPN plays ball, I think the AAC will be more flexible and they could join in 2023-2024. We shall see.

- Revenue distribution... This is still being discussed and will depend on the status of the TV contracts when the time comes, but all four members are expected to pay a 4 or 5 year "entry fee" via reduced conference revenue distributions. The totals, and duration, will depend on the size and length of the Big 12's current and/or new TV contract when the time comes. There is NO carve out for BYU, all four will have the same pay-in plan.

- Why now?... The league was advised and agreed (Oliver Luck was a big part) that adding the "obvious four" now vs later would be highly important to maintaining their CFP payouts in the future. The league needed to show stability and strength, and sell its future to the athletics world. Now, will this work? I don't believe so, in that the league might keep their autonomy status but will likely have to agree to reduced payouts in the new CFP... The other four leagues just don't see the new Big 12 as the same value/thing, and they will extract some $$ to keep for themselves. However, things do look better than they did (this could change), a few weeks ago most in the Big 12 assumed the new conference would see their distributions from the CFP drop much more dramatically. We shall see what happens. Keep in mind: It isn't really about autonomy status, it's about CFP revenue shares. Why feed 5 mouths when you could feed 4.5?

- Don't overlook CBB... This played an important role in the media analysis. The Big 12's MBB inventory is going to be HIGHLY sought after if they can keep the membership as it is today for their next deal. I can tell you for sure that ESPN will be the #1 bidder for this inventory, as it's some of the most profitable material they have and they know it helps drive and keep ESPN+ memberships. One source I know and trust has told me the Big 12 is #2 in importance to ESPN+ next to the ACC amongst college conferences, but is probably #1 long term... I believe it.

- What's next for TX/OU... First, the SEC needs a new deal, they are working on this with ESPN. ESPN has to work to get CBS to sell their Saturday inventory early. Regardless, once this new deal is done and TX/OU have their entrance fees/etc. worked out, then they will know exactly when and how they will leave the Big 12. I think the Big 12 adding these 4 new members made it MORE likely that they leave either before the 2023 or 2024 season, but ESPN holds all the cards.

- Keep an eye on... The CFP expansion. If the leagues can come to an agreement on this, lots of things will be set in motion. If they punt it down the road, things will slow down. Regardless, FOX's negotiations with the BIG, and ESPN with the SEC, are the top things moving right now after the CFP, and both will affect dominoes in the Big 12 and elsewhere. A TON is going to happen and change between now and 1 year from now, I believe, so buckle up.
All other BYU "special rules" waived? No two year missions?
 
All other BYU "special rules" waived? No two year missions?

Technically, NCAA has made allowances for this that apply to all athletes (or could), so not a BYU rule. And any school can, and some do other than BYU, recruit players that use this religious exemption or "missionary" exception. TCU has had a few over the years.
 

Purp

Active Member
What about the magic underwear?
When I got to basic combat training in the Army we had a Mormon dude 2 racks down from me. You bring a small duffle bag with a couple basic things and one change of civilian clothes and the Army provides everything else on day 1. We got underwear and socks issued to us, but this dude got extra special Mormon magic underwear and undershirts issued to him. I honestly couldn't tell the difference, but he insisted that he could tell. He was a really nice guy, but he was weirder than he was nice. We didn't have as hard a day on Sundays bc of him, though. Only think we had one Sunday in the field for 3 whole months.
 
A few realignment notes, hidden in HASMSP for now:

- In terms of the "TCU to the PAC 12 was this close" story, nothing was "this close" however it isn't off the table either. The chatter around the folks I know at TCU is that we are committed to the Big 12, unless somebody else calls. The current plan is the Big 12 won't ask its members to re-up their GOR until the next TV contract negotiations start, which could be several years, so that gives TCU freedom to continue to look for a better fit. That might just be the Pac 12, or another conference. Once the Big 12 GOR is signed, we are committed, so its a race against that clock. More later.

- The four that got added... As you might have assumed, my initial "prediction" wasn't entirely homegrown, but things changed quickly for the conference when they got a report back from their TV consultants on the potential of a 12 team conference with the four members they ultimately added. USF was ahead of Cincinnati in the data, but only by a little, and the AD's just didn't believe USF had made enough investments to-date to warrant an invite. At least you can say the other four had already made the requisite investments and are or have been playing at a high level. I do still believe the Big 12 will likely add a few more members over time: USF, Boise (likely fball only or maybe fball+bball), Memphis, CSU, and SMU are on the list. Hypothetically, if TCU was to leave the conference, SMU would jump up in the rankings significantly.

- BYU as a full member... At first, BYU was being discussed as FBALL only and BYU knew that. However, as time went on and the TV analysis was received, it became clear that A) BYU added more value as a full member, and B) There was less resistance to them and their no-Sunday rule inside the conference. Turns out, amongst university presidents, that was a bit of an old book, and the league figured it could accommodate the Sunday rule more easily than assumed. Also, I understand BYU has agreed that it will waive the rule for non-scheduled events. For instance, if a Saturday game has to be canceled for weather and games have to be played on Sunday to accommodate some deadline or significant need, they will consent to doing so. This all needs to get sorted out more formally, but that's where the discussion ended up. All other "BYU special rules" were waived, and BYU will act/participate as a member under the Big 12's rules/expectations.

- Timing of entry... Despite what was said publicly, all four members are looking to join ASAP but no later than 2024-2025, including BYU. Truth be told, it's too early to know what will happen, but it's not unreasonable to assume all four will join in 2024-2025. For BYU, it's about ESPN and future football schedules, and for the AAC schools it's all about ESPN and the upcoming TV discussions. If ESPN plays ball, I think the AAC will be more flexible and they could join in 2023-2024. We shall see.

- Revenue distribution... This is still being discussed and will depend on the status of the TV contracts when the time comes, but all four members are expected to pay a 4 or 5 year "entry fee" via reduced conference revenue distributions. The totals, and duration, will depend on the size and length of the Big 12's current and/or new TV contract when the time comes. There is NO carve out for BYU, all four will have the same pay-in plan.

- Why now?... The league was advised and agreed (Oliver Luck was a big part) that adding the "obvious four" now vs later would be highly important to maintaining their CFP payouts in the future. The league needed to show stability and strength, and sell its future to the athletics world. Now, will this work? I don't believe so, in that the league might keep their autonomy status but will likely have to agree to reduced payouts in the new CFP... The other four leagues just don't see the new Big 12 as the same value/thing, and they will extract some $$ to keep for themselves. However, things do look better than they did (this could change), a few weeks ago most in the Big 12 assumed the new conference would see their distributions from the CFP drop much more dramatically. We shall see what happens. Keep in mind: It isn't really about autonomy status, it's about CFP revenue shares. Why feed 5 mouths when you could feed 4.5?

- Don't overlook CBB... This played an important role in the media analysis. The Big 12's MBB inventory is going to be HIGHLY sought after if they can keep the membership as it is today for their next deal. I can tell you for sure that ESPN will be the #1 bidder for this inventory, as it's some of the most profitable material they have and they know it helps drive and keep ESPN+ memberships. One source I know and trust has told me the Big 12 is #2 in importance to ESPN+ next to the ACC amongst college conferences, but is probably #1 long term... I believe it.

- What's next for TX/OU... First, the SEC needs a new deal, they are working on this with ESPN. ESPN has to work to get CBS to sell their Saturday inventory early. Regardless, once this new deal is done and TX/OU have their entrance fees/etc. worked out, then they will know exactly when and how they will leave the Big 12. I think the Big 12 adding these 4 new members made it MORE likely that they leave either before the 2023 or 2024 season, but ESPN holds all the cards.

- Keep an eye on... The CFP expansion. If the leagues can come to an agreement on this, lots of things will be set in motion. If they punt it down the road, things will slow down. Regardless, FOX's negotiations with the BIG, and ESPN with the SEC, are the top things moving right now after the CFP, and both will affect dominoes in the Big 12 and elsewhere. A TON is going to happen and change between now and 1 year from now, I believe, so buckle up.
Would the expanded playoff mitigate the need for reduced revenue shares for the Big 12? IOW with more spots the stronger conferences with more participants will already have built in increased revenue potential.
 

netty2424

Full Member
RIP Norm MacDonald. 10 year battle with cancer.

https://amp.tmz.com/2021/09/14/norm-macdonald-dead-dies-cancer/

a9f0bff08c8b40949bac75319542e643_md.jpg
 
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