TCU rolls into the AP Top 25 at #23

[Bob Sugar]

No, it didn't. What are you talking about?

It's not that complicated. In 2014, the "13th data point," H2H, and outright conference championship mattered to OSU's benefit.

In 2016, OSU got in over PSU, despite the not having 13th data point, the H2H loss and no conference championship. Yes, PSU had an extra loss, but it won the same amount of games as OSU (including the aforementioned H2H). All of the key talking points from 2014 were tossed out the window, again to OSU's benefit.

I suspect it is only a matter of time before the key talking point is how well a team looks at the end of the year, thus we should disregard the couple of bad losses from early in the season.

 

[Zubaz]

I guess I will never understand this logic. TCU played a handful of ranked teams that year, many of which by virtue of a round robin schedule ended up unranked by years end. By that logic, assuming Fla St goes on and loses 4+/- games and ends up unranked Bama shouldnt get credit for that top 5 win? Were just supposed to forget that they had a top qb who they lost for the season?

Yes, if Florida State ends up 7-4, then Alabama should get credit for beating a 7-4 team, not a Top 5 team. Obviously. This is the way SOS has always worked.

Put it this way, in 2014, A&M destroyed #9 South Carolina in the opening week. South Carolina finished the season 7-6. Did A&M really beat a Top 10 team, or did they beat an overrated team?

 

[Zubaz]

It's not that complicated. In 2014, the "13th data point," H2H, and outright conference championship mattered to OSU's benefit.

In 2016, OSU got in over PSU, despite the not having 13th data point, the H2H loss and no conference championship. Yes, PSU had an extra loss, but it won the same amount of games as OSU (including the aforementioned H2H). All of the key talking points from 2014 were tossed out the window, again to OSU's benefit.

I suspect it is only a matter of time before the key talking point is how well a team looks at the end of the year, thus we should disregard the couple of bad losses from early in the season.

You misread him. He said that no Big 12 team has ever been jumped by a team with a worse record. netty is wrong when he said "Because it happened", it definitely has not. That is 100% fact. The only time the Big 12 has been jumped, it's been teams with either the same (2014) or better (2016) record. Never a worse record.

To your point, you are comparing apples and oranges. A 13th data point, outright title, and stronger SOS were used as tiebreakers when the teams being compared all had 1 loss (technically 12-1 is a "better" record than 11-1, but let's just compare the L column). That's what happened in 2014. In 2016, they weren't comparing teams with the same record, as the Big 12 and Big 10 champions both had 2 losses, compared to Ohio State's 1 loss. It's really not that difficult to see

 

[Wexahu]

I guess I will never understand this logic. TCU played a handful of ranked teams that year, many of which by virtue of a round robin schedule ended up unranked by years end. By that logic, assuming Fla St goes on and loses 4+/- games and ends up unranked Bama shouldnt get credit for that top 5 win? Were just supposed to forget that they had a top qb who they lost for the season?

Hindsight is 20/20, but In Bowl games Baylor lost to MSU, WVU lost to A&M, K-State lost to Ucla, UT got blown out by Arkansas and OU lost to Clemson 40-6. Okie State won their bowl game but had lost 5 straight games earlier. Did those teams like OU, OSU and WVU lose their high ranking because of the round robin conference format or because they weren't all that good to begin with?

 

[MN Frog]

Yes, if Florida State ends up 7-4, then Alabama should get credit for beating a 7-4 team, not a Top 5 team. Obviously. This is the way SOS has always worked.

Put it this way, in 2014, A&M destroyed #9 South Carolina in the opening week. South Carolina finished the season 7-6. Did A&M really beat a Top 10 team, or did they beat an overrated team?

I gets that how SOS works, but I watched the FSU vs Bama game. FSU with a healthy QB is a top 15 team and competes for the ACC title. Without him they are likely a 4 loss team. When Bama played FSU they had a healthy QB and should be given credit for such. Logic has to apply at some point.

Same goes for the Big XII round robin. You start the conference season with 4 ranked teams. They all play each other and two of them end up losing 2 or 3 games, they both fall out of the top 25. If they played one less conf game and if the schedule included Vandy, Kentucky, Mizzou, S Car and 3 soft non conf games...one would think that those teams may have one less loss?

I thought adding a committee was supposed to be for these type of logic applications.

 

[MN Frog]

Hindsight is 20/20, but In Bowl games Baylor lost to MSU, WVU lost to A&M, K-State lost to Ucla, UT got blown out by Arkansas and OU lost to Clemson 40-6. Okie State won their bowl game but had lost 5 straight games earlier. Did those teams like OU, OSU and WVU lose their high ranking because of the round robin conference format or because they weren't all that good to begin with?

The Big XII had a down year last year but went 4-2 in the bowls. So what?

 

[RollToad]

 

[Hoosierfrog]

Nope, the computer models had TCU and Baylor with tougher SOS up until the Conference Championships. Through 12 data points TCU was the better pick, and I dare anyone to tell me that after watching the abomination that was the 2014 B10 Championship Game proved Ohio State's SOS should have move one inch from where it was in the last week of the regular season.

Oh, I think Wexosu will tell you that.

 

[Hoosierfrog]

Debating 2014 is the Godwin's law of KFC. Any thread, left active long enough, will devolve in to a discussion about 2014's final CFP rankings.

Well, that is probably because only you and Wexosu don't have a problem with getting a 12 foot committe poll shoved up our ...

 

[Zubaz]

I gets that how SOS works, but I watched the FSU vs Bama game. FSU with a healthy QB is a top 15 team and competes for the ACC title. Without him they are likely a 4 loss team. When Bama played FSU they had a healthy QB and should be given credit for such. Logic has to apply at some point.

I would agree that a major injury changes the conversation slightly, but that's a rare case. The teams that collapsed after we beat them in 2014 didn't really have any major injuries to speak of that significantly changed their trajectory. We just happened to catch them at a time when they were ranked artificially high.

There's a level of objectivity that wins and losses creates, otherwise you start reverting to subjective stuff like "the eye test" and "body clocks" and "early in the season losses" that just two posts up you were objecting to. Either you beat a good team or you didn't. That can only be determined by where the team is at the end of the season.

Same goes for the Big XII round robin. You start the conference season with 4 ranked teams. They all play each other and two of them end up losing 2 or 3 games, they both fall out of the top 25. If they played one less conf game and if the schedule included Vandy, Kentucky, Mizzou, S Car and 3 soft non conf games...one would think that those teams may have one less loss?

I thought adding a committee was supposed to be for these type of logic applications.

This isn't necessarily true. The 10-team Big 12 ended the season with 4 ranked teams in 2011 & 2015 both, so we know it's possible.

What's more, take the conference schedule out of it: In 2016 if Kansas State beats Stanford, they definitely end the season ranked. 2013 Texas lost to both BYU AND Ole Miss, then got smoked by Oregon in the bowl. None of that had anything to do with a round robin schedule. Win those games and they're ranked.

Our bubble teams tend to be unranked (and conference affiliation suffers as a result), because they lose OOC and Bowls, not as much because of conference attrition due to the round robin schedule.

 

[Zubaz]

Well, that is probably because only you and Wexosu don't have a problem with getting a 12 foot committe poll shoved up our ...

Always have to make it personal, don't you? You have a problem discussing things like an adult?

 

[Hoosierfrog]

Debating 2014 is the Godwin's law of KFC. Any thread, left active long enough, will devolve in to a discussion about 2014's final CFP rankings.

Well, that is probbecause only you and Wexosu don't have a problem with getting a 12 foot committe poll shoved up our ...

Always have to make it personal, don't you? You have a problem discussing things like an adult?

Huh? Just stating the facts as you two seem to be the only ones that think TCU got a good deal in 2014. I apologize if that hurt your feelings.

 

[Zubaz]

Huh? Just stating the facts as you two seem to be the only ones that think TCU got a good deal in 2014. I apologize if that hurt your feelings.

My bad. I thought you said "your" instead of "our". Long day, please accept my apologies.

 

[Hoosierfrog]

My bad. I thought you said "your" instead of "our". Long day, please accept my apologies.

No apology necessary. I figured you may have misread.

 

[MN Frog]

I would agree that a major injury changes the conversation slightly, but that's a rare case. The teams that collapsed after we beat them in 2014 didn't really have any major injuries to speak of that significantly changed their trajectory. We just happened to catch them at a time when they were ranked artificially high.

There's a level of objectivity that wins and losses creates, otherwise you start reverting to subjective stuff like "the eye test" and "body clocks" and "early in the season losses" that just two posts up you were objecting to. Either you beat a good team or you didn't. That can only be determined by where the team is at the end of the season.


This isn't necessarily true. The 10-team Big 12 ended the season with 4 ranked teams in 2011 & 2015 both, so we know it's possible.

What's more, take the conference schedule out of it: In 2016 if Kansas State beats Stanford, they definitely end the season ranked. 2013 Texas lost to both BYU AND Ole Miss, then got smoked by Oregon in the bowl. None of that had anything to do with a round robin schedule. Win those games and they're ranked.

Our bubble teams tend to be unranked (and conference affiliation suffers as a result), because they lose OOC and Bowls, not as much because of conference attrition due to the round robin schedule.

Im not sure where I said that I disagreed with "the eye test". Maybe I did. Nonetheless I think there is some validity to playing a ranked team, especially on the road. Their fans are hyped, the team likely has some extra juice with the likelyhood its a night game, etc. Sure, the team still have to perform, but I would guess there is some extra momentum gained especially in the 1st qtr of a road game by said ranked team. Maybe Im wrong. Ive only ever been a fan and never competedal at that level.

 

[Wexahu]

Im not sure where I said that I disagreed with "the eye test". Maybe I did. Nonetheless I think there is some validity to playing a ranked team, especially on the road. Their fans are hyped, the team likely has some extra juice with the likelyhood its a night game, etc. Sure, the team still have to perform, but I would guess there is some extra momentum gained especially in the 1st qtr of a road game by said ranked team. Maybe Im wrong. Ive only ever been a fan and never competedal at that level.

Beating a really good team on the road is the hardest thing to do and the most indicative thing as to what determines a good team IMO. And our lack of opportunities to do it in 2014 is what likely cost us. What was our best road win? West Virginia? Kansas State and Oklahoma also beat them in Morgantown. A Texas team that lost six games beat WVU too

Ohio State beat Michigan State by 14 points in one of those games you're talking about....night game on national TV, gameday in town, biggest game in East Lansing in forever. OSU went up there and waxed them. Michigan State had two losses that year, at Oregon and Ohio State at home, and then they beat Baylor in the bowl game. OSU also beat a top 20 team by 59 points on a neutral site. Say what you want, but those two wins are going to be considered more impressive than any win we had. People want to point to the VaTech loss which is fine but you can't completely discount the MSU game especially and the Wisky game.

Like I've said, part of our misfortune was our schedule was heavily tilted toward home games and we just didn't get the opportunity for that big eye-opening win. I do know this.....if we were 12-1 and had just won the Big 12 CCG by 59 points, we'd be absolutely livid if an 11-1 Ohio State team who beat Va Tech in OOC and lost by a few points to Michigan State made it ahead of us. I am 100% sure of that. And that's the parallel.

 

[MN Frog]

Beating a really good team on the road is the hardest thing to do and the most indicative thing as to what determines a good team IMO. And our lack of opportunities to do it in 2014 is what likely cost us. What was our best road win? West Virginia? Kansas State and Oklahoma also beat them in Morgantown. A Texas team that lost six games beat WVU too

Ohio State beat Michigan State by 14 points in one of those games you're talking about....night game on national TV, gameday in town, biggest game in East Lansing in forever. OSU went up there and waxed them. Michigan State had two losses that year, at Oregon and Ohio State at home, and then they beat Baylor in the bowl game. OSU also beat a top 20 team by 59 points on a neutral site. Say what you want, but those two wins are going to be considered more impressive than any win we had. People want to point to the VaTech loss which is fine but you can't completely discount the MSU game especially and the Wisky game.

Like I've said, part of our misfortune was our schedule was heavily tilted toward home games and we just didn't get the opportunity for that big eye-opening win. I do know this.....if we were 12-1 and had just won the Big 12 CCG by 59 points, we'd be absolutely livid if an 11-1 Ohio State team who beat Va Tech in OOC and lost by a few points to Michigan State made it ahead of us. I am 100% sure of that. And that's the parallel.

I dont disagree with your final point. That being said, that was never the argument I intended to engage in. My point was that I believe there should be some merit given to teams who defeat ranked teams, even if they fall out of the rankings by seasons end. This thought process of course needs to be coupled with some logic regarding injuries, schedule, and game control, etc. With that being said, I believe the second part was overlooked in 2014.

 

[Wexahu]

I dont disagree with your final point. That being said, that was never the argument I intended to engage in. My point was that I believe there should be some merit given to teams who defeat ranked teams, even if they fall out of the rankings by seasons end. This thought process of course needs to be coupled with some logic regarding injuries, schedule, and game control, etc. With that being said, I believe the second part was overlooked in 2014.

There is merit given to everything. I really don't think anything is "overlooked". Why do you think it is?

The fact that you agree with my final point, that had the resumes been switched around TCU fans would've still been livid (and probably more livid) than they already were proves my point. All the bitching and complaining about the committee and the unfairness of it all isn't based on any sort of facts, it's just an emotional reaction. The bottom line was TCU was thisclose to making the playoffs, didn't get in, so there has to be someone or something to blame. The committee, ESPN, Barry Alvarez, Tom Osborne, Jeff Long, Kirk Herbstreit, just anyone. It had to unfair because we want it our way. If we don't get our way, it can't be fair.

I just know that if we ever go 12-1, no matter how pretty or ugly it is, and win the conference championship game by 59 points, no matter how bad the other team doesn't show up or quits.....and don't make the playoffs, then the reaction this week from Aggie fans is going to look very civilized compared to what you'd see on here.

 

[BleedNPurple]

Just beat Arkansas - we can discuss the what ifs later! Put the blinders on because that's what it takes!

 

[Chongo94]

Ohio State sucks...