MBB halfway through conference schedule

[JogginFrog]

TCU is 6-3 at the halfway point in the Big 12 slate. The only team the Frogs have played twice is WV; the only one they has yet to play is OSU.

In the back half they have an extra road game, but they only get 2 of the 5 other ranked teams on the road.

Expected Ls: @ISU, @KSU
Toss-ups: @OSU, BU, KU, UT, @OU
Expected Ws: OSU, @Tech

If the Frogs were at full strength, I'd say a final conference record of 12-6 was possible. With the injuries, I'd be happy to see them finish 11-7 (22-9 overall), or even 10-8, 21-10. This week's game @OSU seems big. Cowboys have won 4 of 5, including a 22-point thrashing of Ole Miss.

What do you hope to see in the back half of conference play?

 

[An-Cap Frog]

TCU is 6-3 at the halfway point in the Big 12 slate. The only team the Frogs have played twice is WV; the only one they has yet to play is OSU.

In the back half they have an extra road game, but they only get 2 of the 5 other ranked teams on the road.

Expected Ls: @ISU, @KSU
Toss-ups: @OSU, BU, KU, UT, @OU
Expected Ws: OSU, @Tech

If the Frogs were at full strength, I'd say a final conference record of 12-6 was possible. With the injuries, I'd be happy to see them finish 11-7 (22-9 overall), or even 10-8, 21-10. This week's game @OSU seems big. Cowboys have won 4 of 5, including a 22-point thrashing of Ole Miss.

What do you hope to see in the back half of conference play?

When healthy, I think this is a final four team. They just need to make sure they are hot entering the post season. Barring an epic collapse, their record doesn't matter, they are in the tourney.

 

[Hoosierfrog]

When healthy, I think this is a final four team. They just need to make sure they are hot entering the post season. Barring an epic collapse, their record doesn't matter, they are in the tourney.

 

[An-Cap Frog]

You don't think this is a final four team?

 

[An-Cap Frog]

11 dark horse Final Four teams in men's college basketball, ranked by Andy Katz

NCAA's Andy Katz picks 11 potential Final Four sleepers for the 2022-23 men's college basketball season.

www.ncaa.com

 

[TCUdirtbag]

Team looked better than I expected against WVU.

This week: I think we can — and need — to win in Stillwater on Saturday. TCU is a bad matchup for K-State, but Manhattan is tough this year. Any word if Eddie might be back full speed by next Tuesday? I’m sure we won’t have Miles back yet. This one is really tough to find a way to a W without both. K-State did just get whipped by KU, though, and they have UT Saturday, so they could be reeling by the time we roll in. We’ll see.

Next week: vs Baylor and @ Iowa State. Damn. This stretch is a terrible time to be down Miles. We need to split this week somehow.

We finish off with hosting OSU and KU, going to Tech, hosting UT, and going to OU. Gotta win 3 and could win 4-5 there.

I don’t see us with a record worse than 10-8 and honestly 11-7 is probably the floor. How much better may depend on when we get a fully healthy Lampkin and Miles back. Our ceiling is very high if we can scrape out 3-4 Ws in the next 2 weeks (4 games)

 

[KillerFrog InD KitchenSink]

When healthy, I think this is a final four team. They just need to make sure they are hot entering the post season. Barring an epic collapse, their record doesn't matter, they are in the tourney.

Yeah obviously can't go 0-9 but I think we are basically played for seed for all intents and purposes.

TCU is 6-3 at the halfway point in the Big 12 slate. The only team the Frogs have played twice is WV; the only one they has yet to play is OSU.

In the back half they have an extra road game, but they only get 2 of the 5 other ranked teams on the road.

Expected Ls: @ISU, @KSU
Toss-ups: @OSU, BU, KU, UT, @OU
Expected Ws: OSU, @Tech

If the Frogs were at full strength, I'd say a final conference record of 12-6 was possible. With the injuries, I'd be happy to see them finish 11-7 (22-9 overall), or even 10-8, 21-10. This week's game @OSU seems big. Cowboys have won 4 of 5, including a 22-point thrashing of Ole Miss.

What do you hope to see in the back half of conference play?

Hope to see? 9-0! But realistically every game is basically going to be a coin flip. No for sure wins or losses. Game to game results will vary but most likely outcome is 4 or 5 wins before the conference tourney. That would put us at 11-7 or 10-8 and probably about a 4 seed. I do think this team has another gear that is paradoxically more likely to achieve now that we've had to figure out how to play without Eddie and Miles. If we find it and go 7-2, we would be most likely a 2 seed, maybe in the discussion for a #1 with a tourney run. OTOH if Miles is out longer and we bog down on offense and go 2-7 or so, we will be on the bubble but pretty sure we'd still be in.

Next four games are our toughest stretch left with 3 on the road and Baylor at home. 2-2 would be a good outcome.

 

[CountryFrog]

I just want the team to be totally healthy by March. The next couple weeks could be tough without Miles and Eddie still hobbling but if we're back to full strength after that then we'll end up with 10 - 12 wins in conference and at least a decent seed in the tourney.

It would also be nice to go on a little run in the Big 12 tourney which we certainly can if healthy. Making it at least to the semis would have us moving in the right direction going into the NCAA.

 

[Limey Frog]

You don't think this is a final four team?

Do you mean that if healthy they would make a Final Four, or could do so?

I agree that if everyone is back and they play their best when it matters, they can go very deep in the tournament. I agree with Joggin: I think 12-6 would be incredible and the squad at full health is capable of doing that. But TCU basketball has never finished above .500 in a Big XII regular season. With Miles out and Lampkin hobbled I'll be happy to go 10-8.

 

[KillerFrog InD KitchenSink]

Not sure if it was WVU playing poor D or what, but the offensive flow and passing looked about as good as I've seen from a Dixon team this last game. We ended up with so many inside high pct shots. If we can keep that up, I like our chances during this stretch without Miles. Coles in particular moved really well without the ball to create lanes around the basket and easy baskets.

 

[An-Cap Frog]

Do you mean that if healthy they would make a Final Four, or could do so?

I agree that if everyone is back and they play their best when it matters, they can go very deep in the tournament. I agree with Joggin: I think 12-6 would be incredible and the squad at full health is capable of doing that. But TCU basketball has never finished above .500 in a Big XII regular season. With Miles out and Lampkin hobbled I'll be happy to go 10-8.

Coulda, woulda, shoulda...

 

[satis1103]

Do you mean that if healthy they would make a Final Four, or could do so?

I agree that if everyone is back and they play their best when it matters, they can go very deep in the tournament. I agree with Joggin: I think 12-6 would be incredible and the squad at full health is capable of doing that. But TCU basketball has never finished above .500 in a Big XII regular season. With Miles out and Lampkin hobbled I'll be happy to go 10-8.

If healthy, and playing as they did vs. KU and OU, it's a "would" more than a "could"

 

[tmcats]

Healthy, TCU is the best team in the B12.

 

[Hoosierfrog]

You don't think this is a final four team?

Do I think it is possible? Yeah, if everything falls into place like it did for football and we get most of the breaks. Do I think they are a final 4 talented team, probably no. I hope they are.

 

[JogginFrog]

It takes so much to be a Final Four team: Talent, chemistry, coaching, health, late momentum, lucky breaks, bracket matchups.

TCU has credibility by every measure.
- talent -- elite pg, athletic bigs, wings who can finish, bench depth
- game that travels -- TCU has multiple good road wins
- scheme/coaching -- elite transition play; enough D; ability to get to the line
- performance -- every power measure has TCU in the top 16
- experience

The only thing missing is elite 3-point shooting. Would it prevent the Frogs from winning 4 games in a row in the tourney? Not if the shooting shows up in the right games. Frogs can grind out a win or two when the threes don't drop.

If the injuries linger, that limits the ceiling. But I think I'm with those who are pointing to a silver lining if Miles & Lampkin are close to full strength by season's end. The danger of peaking too early has been resolved; now they have to fight, and that is giving Shahada, Coles and others an opportunity to elevate. Could pay off, as could the rest for Mike & Eddie.

I could see them grinding out a couple of wins in the next two weeks, then getting guys back and making a late-season run. Dixon has shown the ability to have guys playing their best in March. For a school that has never won more than one game in an NCAA tournament, Final Four talk sounds ridiculous; making the second weekend would be a treat. But the pieces are there for more if things break right.

 

[TCUdirtbag]

It takes so much to be a Final Four team: Talent, chemistry, coaching, health, late momentum, lucky breaks, bracket matchups.

TCU has credibility by every measure.
- talent -- elite pg, athletic bigs, wings who can finish, bench depth
- game that travels -- TCU has multiple good road wins
- scheme/coaching -- elite transition play; enough D; ability to get to the line
- performance -- every power measure has TCU in the top 16
- experience

The only thing missing is elite 3-point shooting. Would it prevent the Frogs from winning 4 games in a row in the tourney? Not if the shooting shows up in the right games. Frogs can grind out a win or two when the threes don't drop.

If the injuries linger, that limits the ceiling. But I think I'm with those who are pointing to a silver lining if Miles & Lampkin are close to full strength by season's end. The danger of peaking too early has been resolved; now they have to fight, and that is giving Shahada, Coles and others an opportunity to elevate. Could pay off, as could the rest for Mike & Eddie.

I could see them grinding out a couple of wins in the next two weeks, then getting guys back and making a late-season run. Dixon has shown the ability to have guys playing their best in March. For a school that has never won more than one game in an NCAA tournament, Final Four talk sounds ridiculous; making the second weekend would be a treat. But the pieces are there for more if things break right.

Well said. Really important to try and go 2-2 or better in the next couple weeks while short-handed. Better seeding doesn’t guarantee a deep run, but it usually makes it more achievable.

 

[Fred Garvin]

It takes so much to be a Final Four team: Talent, chemistry, coaching, health, late momentum, lucky breaks, bracket matchups.

TCU has credibility by every measure.
- talent -- elite pg, athletic bigs, wings who can finish, bench depth
- game that travels -- TCU has multiple good road wins
- scheme/coaching -- elite transition play; enough D; ability to get to the line
- performance -- every power measure has TCU in the top 16
- experience

The only thing missing is elite 3-point shooting. Would it prevent the Frogs from winning 4 games in a row in the tourney? Not if the shooting shows up in the right games. Frogs can grind out a win or two when the threes don't drop.

If the injuries linger, that limits the ceiling. But I think I'm with those who are pointing to a silver lining if Miles & Lampkin are close to full strength by season's end. The danger of peaking too early has been resolved; now they have to fight, and that is giving Shahada, Coles and others an opportunity to elevate. Could pay off, as could the rest for Mike & Eddie.

I could see them grinding out a couple of wins in the next two weeks, then getting guys back and making a late-season run. Dixon has shown the ability to have guys playing their best in March. For a school that has never won more than one game in an NCAA tournament, Final Four talk sounds ridiculous; making the second weekend would be a treat. But the pieces are there for more if things break right.

Good analysis, but I have one other worry. Free throw shooting, particularly when the game is on the line late.

 

[StinnettFrog]

Good analysis, but I have one other worry. Free throw shooting, particularly when the game is on the line late.

I wouldn’t say I’m pleased with the free throw shooting but it is better than previous years. Really hoping Miller finds his form on offense again. Obannon has such a funky delivery on the 3 I really wish he would stick to his mid range. Seems much more accurate inside the arc.

 

[JogginFrog]

I wouldn’t say I’m pleased with the free throw shooting but it is better than previous years. Really hoping Miller finds his form on offense again. Obannon has such a funky delivery on the 3 I really wish he would stick to his mid range. Seems much more accurate inside the arc.

Agree--71.3% isn't great (outside the top 150 teams), but it's less of a liability than previous years and only 1 point worse than the defending national champs. I think only 13 Power 5 teams are 75% or better. It looked like HCJD adjusted the lineup late against WV to have better FT shooters on the floor.

And with all the data that TCU has at it's disposal (like this), someone ought to be able to convince Ed that adding some extra arc will improve his percentage from distance. His release motion can be as funky as he wants as long as the ball hits the hoop at 45 degrees.

 

[Prince of Purpoole II]

I believe the knowledge that both Lampkin and Miles will be back makes a positive difference in the the team mentality approaching these short-handed games