As crazy as it sounds, could we still make a BCS game?
- Thread starter RaiderHater
- Start date
Frog-in-law1995
Active Member
For a non-AQ to get the auto-bid, they have to win their conference. If we win out, Boise won't win their conference.
I agree with your odds, though, and don't know why I'm still posting in this thread.
Mike Brooks
New Member
Even more entertaining: Tech is 4-0 and unranked :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
Limey Frog
Full Member
This team would get crushed in a BCS bowl. Why would we want that? It would be a much better growing-up experience to play some equally useless Pac/ACC also-ran in Vegas/Shreveport. I am hoping we make it to 9-3 and then gain a respectable bowl win for a strong finish and 10-win season. That could do for this class of players what I think the Texas Bowl vs. Houston did for Andy Dalton and Co.
matmoo123
Full Member
To answer your original question: Mathematically, it probably is possible, or certainly not Impossible. Probably up there with the chances of being struck by lightening, while dodging an asteroid, and winning the lottery, all at the same time. Not saying it COULD NOT happen, but highly unlikely.
A threads topic like this really makes my day... I was needing a little humor this morning.
Personally, being on the left coast, I'm hoping for at least a Poinsettia Bowl and a Vegas
invite(MWC Champs or #2) is the best we should/could realistically be hoping for.
In saying that, If by some chance TCU could go 7-0 by beating a top 10 Boise St. could
mean we have a shot at a BCS with the 2 ifs: a) were the highest ranked non- Qualifier
and were in the top 12. Both would have to happen. Boise would still be 1 loss and they
would need to lose one more after we beat them... so can forget that feasability. We
are 2-2 against our own FBS peers... and for most those other things to fall in line...
we would need a defense.
Cheers !
Personally, being on the left coast, I'm hoping for at least a Poinsettia Bowl and a Vegas
invite(MWC Champs or #2) is the best we should/could realistically be hoping for.
In saying that, If by some chance TCU could go 7-0 by beating a top 10 Boise St. could
mean we have a shot at a BCS with the 2 ifs: a) were the highest ranked non- Qualifier
and were in the top 12. Both would have to happen. Boise would still be 1 loss and they
would need to lose one more after we beat them... so can forget that feasability. We
are 2-2 against our own FBS peers... and for most those other things to fall in line...
we would need a defense.
Cheers !
RaiderHater
New Member
Maybe im crazy, but I dont see it being 1 in a million chance. If you apply simple probability and statistics to each event you can calculate a total probability.
Event #1 winning out: Say our chance of winning at boise are 1/5 and losing another game is 1/2. Thus the probability of #1 occuring is (1/5)*(1/2)=1/10.
Event #2 houston losing: I say about a 1/3 chance they win out. Thus the probability of #2 occuring is 1-(1/3) = 2/3.
Event #3 AQ conf champ finishing outside 16. It happened to Uconn, FSU, KSU, and Stanford. Probility of #3 occuring is 4/14 = 2/7.
Add in Event #4 staying in the top 16 if win out. In 08 we destroyed BYU and they finished 16, last year Utah got destroyed by us and ND and they still finished 19. With 2 nailbiting losses Id say about 2/3.
The odds of events #1-#4 occuring simultaeneously = (1/10)*(2/3)*(2/7)*(2/3) = 4/315 or 1.3%
Event #1 winning out: Say our chance of winning at boise are 1/5 and losing another game is 1/2. Thus the probability of #1 occuring is (1/5)*(1/2)=1/10.
Event #2 houston losing: I say about a 1/3 chance they win out. Thus the probability of #2 occuring is 1-(1/3) = 2/3.
Event #3 AQ conf champ finishing outside 16. It happened to Uconn, FSU, KSU, and Stanford. Probility of #3 occuring is 4/14 = 2/7.
Add in Event #4 staying in the top 16 if win out. In 08 we destroyed BYU and they finished 16, last year Utah got destroyed by us and ND and they still finished 19. With 2 nailbiting losses Id say about 2/3.
The odds of events #1-#4 occuring simultaeneously = (1/10)*(2/3)*(2/7)*(2/3) = 4/315 or 1.3%
Yes we could.. Season is early!!
We would have to start playing better ball on defense though.
Have a good showing against SDSU. Have defense shut down BYU on National TV.
Go into Boise game with people talking about how TCU D has turned around is great story line.
And if you win in Boise then TCU is the headline.
Houston, SMU, West Virginia would have to lose a game as well. WVU can't be top 16 since top 12 might be stretch for auto BCS non AQ bid.
10-2 with two last second losses to rivals early in season.. Why not take them?
That being said.. Just beat SDSU. Keep playing hard. Becoming bowl eligible is goal right now. Not BCS bowl eligible.
We would have to start playing better ball on defense though.
Have a good showing against SDSU. Have defense shut down BYU on National TV.
Go into Boise game with people talking about how TCU D has turned around is great story line.
And if you win in Boise then TCU is the headline.
Houston, SMU, West Virginia would have to lose a game as well. WVU can't be top 16 since top 12 might be stretch for auto BCS non AQ bid.
10-2 with two last second losses to rivals early in season.. Why not take them?
That being said.. Just beat SDSU. Keep playing hard. Becoming bowl eligible is goal right now. Not BCS bowl eligible.
I think the theory is that we wouldn't need to pass Boise, just beat them out for the MWC title, then sneak into the top 16 and hope the BE or ACC champ is 17 or lower. The non-AQ criteria require a conference champion.
Agree that it's incredibly unlikely.
anom
Full Member
post of the day
anom
Full Member
I agree with the idea of the original post, however the key is that we'd have to win out until boise/after(decent chance), and then beat Boise. With the play on the field in Waco and then against SMU, right now I'm putting money on a Boise blow out. I love my frogs, and will cheer all the way for the frogs, but just not our year to face one of the best passing offenses we will have faced in the last decade.
It might be a shootout, and i pray that we start the game better than we have this season, but all things point to me turning the game off after the final whistle, coming on here, and just posting, meh, lets to go to vegas
Young and Horned
Active Member
True. Considering we win the rest of our conference games.
Army Frog Fan
Active Member
This is why some people thought BYU going Independant was ludicrous. If the go 12-0 and are ranked #3 in the BCS, they are not guaranteed jack. They would be fighting for an at-large, just like the SrC and Big 10 runner ups.
Stiff Arm Frog
Active Member
Guys. Seriously. Let's beat San Diego State first.
*Facepalm*
This is probably why we lost to SMU. Too many people worrying about January when they should be worried about Saturday.
*Facepalm*
This is probably why we lost to SMU. Too many people worrying about January when they should be worried about Saturday.
RaiderHater
New Member
Didn't know the conversations on this board actually have any impact on whether the frogs win or lose. Sorry, admins delete thread immediately.
froggfinance
Member
There is a chance you could pick up a hitchhiker at I20 and I45 and not get robbed and raped. (is 3 ands in a sentence ok?)
Start Wearing Purple
Member
Those two losses... at Oklahoma who played in the BCS National Championship game and at Utah who went undefeated and beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl are "better" losses than at Baylor (unranked at the time and have since lost to Kansas State) and home to SMU.
It's not out of the realm of possibilities that we'll be ranked by the end of the year, but we are NOT going back to the BCS.
Totally under the impression that a non-AQ qualifier is the highest ranked and in top 12 to get a Bid. The only time 2 non Qualifiers made it in one year was when TCU was #4 and Boise #6(2009). There have been other years when 2 N-AQ teams finished in the top 12 and only one got in:
2010 -TCU #3/Boise #10
2008 - Utha #6/TCU #11
Don't know about this finishing #16 or a little better, and beating out another BCS team business. Could be ill informed, but don't recall this #16 stuff. If your the highest N-AQ at 15
or 16 then there are 14 BCS teams that for sure will get in before you out.
Cheers !
