• The KillerFrogs

World Cup Gambling

The Degenerate Frog

Active Member
For any gamblers out there, you should know... the WC is an excellent opportunity for passive betting. I only went back and checked 4 of the last large tournaments (2010 WC, 2014 WC, 2016 Euro, 2016 Confed Cup), but in 3 out of the last 4, had you bet all underdogs, or all draws, you would have come out on the plus side. In the 2016 Euro, taking all favorites would have netted you a small overall gain.

WC gets A LOT of action... usually people betting either on their country's team, or a heavy favorite. This pushes the line well beyond the true value (Ex. Germany with a 60% to win... book lists odds suggesting 70% chance t win).

Gambling isnt about picking winners, it is about taking bets that are undervalued... as this is the key to long term success.

Just something to think about if you are betting the favorites in the WC. You will win most of your bets, but if you pick a team that has a 75% chance to win... with odds suggesting the team has an 80% chance to win.... you will lose 5% in the long run.

If you are interested in mathematical modeling and can identify true value for individual games.. you are on your way to beating the man! A book's best way to identify sharp bettors is calculating the difference in odds from the time a bet is made, to when the line closes. If you can beat the masses by 5-10% before the game/match starts, and combine that with understanding true value of the game/match, your win/loss record is meaningless.

Soccer is very difficult to model... but large tournaments such as the World Cup are a good opportunity to passively increase your bankroll.

Math and Science all day!
 
Top