Wild speculation about future of Big East

[screetch]

With Aggy's impending departure, I started thinking about how the Big East would maximize revenue. With the upcoming television contract renewal the Big East is perfectly positioned to make some big moves. Everyone is mentioning Mizzou, Kansas and KSU as possible with Aggy's impending departure from the Longwhorn conference, but to lure them over we would need to offer more than they are getting now. I believe the Big East walked away from $1.4 billion over 9 years, which would pay about $12mm to each football member. Not sure what Mizzou, Kansas and KSU are being paid now, but I believe Mizzou is getting around $15mm? Adding them might increase bids for the television K, but it would take a lot to make up a $3mm shortfall because there are so many mouths to feed with basketball schools splitting 40%. That's why I think Aggy leaving means the Big East football schools split off if they can add Mizzou, Kansas and KSU, along with Villanova to sweeten the basketball television deal.

The new Big East would look like this:

North:
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
Syracuse
West Virginia
Villanova

South:
USF
TCU
Louisville
Missouri
Kansas
Kansas State

This would enable a championship game and increase the value of the television contract. Of course this all presumes the Big East could negotiate a television contract of about $1.6 billion for this package. Not sure how a network would value the rights if Notre Dame didn't come along for basketball?

The Big East may even be able to pick off some ACC teams to go to 14-16 because the ACC's current deal is crap and they are locked in.
No basis or source for any of this. Just seems like the logical end result.

Happy Friday.

 

[deters]

This is exactly how I've been wanting our conference to look since expansion talks started last year except for Villinova.

Kansas, K-State and Mizzou are excellent additions imo.

 

[Vlade Divac]

Wild. Yeah.

 

[mtmedlin]

The BE had a $1 billion offer...not $1.4 billion. It worked out that Football teams would have gotten about $10 million. That was a non competitive bid without any of the other three bidders. Market expectations are from $15 to $18 million with a network income being the unknown.

The B12 makes $150 million a year with uneven distribution. Missou would not be making $15 million because it would require equal distribution. I believe the estimate is about $11 - $13 million. Given, their contract is up for re-negotiation in 2015... but again the estimated are that they will get about $20 million with the top 3 getting more. Without AtM, that goes down.

If the BE were to add three teams like Missou, Kansas and K st the amount will go up simply based off of getting new markets and a championship team.

I think you are correct that a split will happen. With 12 football and 8 basketball, the football schools can vote and do what they want. Baksetball isnt sticking around for that. No big deal though since ND will stay with the football schools. In total that will still be 10 basketball teams that made the tourney compared to the 11 and yet we have four fewer mouths to feed.

 

[screetch]

This is exactly how I've been wanting our conference to look since expansion talks started last year except for Villinova.

Kansas, K-State and Mizzou are excellent additions imo.

I'm not a big fan of including 'Nova either, but if you keep them for the basketball television contract i think you still end up with the strongest b-ball conference without having 20 teams splitting 40% of the revenue. If you can negotiate $15mm for each school with the added inventory of Kansas, KSU and Mizzou, this seems like a no brainer. Then you can start looking how much more you can make by adding ACC teams who are making $13mm per school.

Because of the timing of the television deal, the Big East is in a much better position than the Big 12 with its unequal revenue distribution plan. I really don't understand why TCU is even mentioned in that mess.

 

[screetch]

The BE had a $1 billion offer...not $1.4 billion. It worked out that Football teams would have gotten about $10 million. That was a non competitive bid without any of the other three bidders. Market expectations are from $15 to $18 million with a network income being the unknown.

The B12 makes $150 million a year with uneven distribution. Missou would not be making $15 million because it would require equal distribution. I believe the estimate is about $11 - $13 million. Given, their contract is up for re-negotiation in 2015... but again the estimated are that they will get about $20 million with the top 3 getting more. Without AtM, that goes down.

If the BE were to add three teams like Missou, Kansas and K st the amount will go up simply based off of getting new markets and a championship team.

I think you are correct that a split will happen. With 12 football and 8 basketball, the football schools can vote and do what they want. Baksetball isnt sticking around for that. No big deal though since ND will stay with the football schools. In total that will still be 10 basketball teams that made the tourney compared to the 11 and yet we have four fewer mouths to feed.

I wasn't sure on Mizzou's K, so that helps. I don't think it is $11mm though, because that is what Baylor reportedly makes.

[EDIT - I found this link from the distribution plan from 2009. Mizzzouri was making about a 1/12th share before the split because Baylor and Iowa State were making so much less. This was before the Big 12 revised its distribution scheme so that 76% of revenue is now split equally (meaning Mizzou's share may have increased). Based on this, I think $13mm+ is probably about right.]

According to Brett McMurphy on August 9th: "Also confirmed media rights deal Big East turned down from ESPN: 9 years, $1.4 billion."

Otherwise, I think we are the same page. I assume the amounts would go up with Mizzou and Kansas (not so much for KSU, and definitely not for ISU if they are still in the mix) - I'm just not sure if it would be enough to make up the current gap. But you would think so looking at the inventory of teams for both football and basketball. The window is September 2012 for finalizing the inventory for ESPN negotiations, though, so I think you could see another team in the mix. Hopefully the Big East thinks Big.

 

[toadallytexan]

If I'm Mo. KU and KSU, what is it worth to me to be in a conference where they can compete on an equal footing with everyone else? When you share finances equally that tends to be the case. B-12...not so much.

Even if the money were equivalent, what is equal access to success on the field worth? That, and not being UTerus' lick spittle? Better to die on your feet than serve on your knees...only these three programs would be much farther from death's door with the BE than where they are now. By joining they would insure stability in their new conference.

Wish MU would abandon idle wishes for an SEC or even a Big-10 bid, and think along these lines. The Kansas schools may be ahead of the curve on them in this respect. Waiting around is all BU and ISU can do., but these three schools have real and viable options right now. Be proactive. BE extend, those invites, and MU, KU and KSU, act now! Everyone concerned is sitting on a hot stove...time in NOT on our side.

 

[screetch]

If I'm Mo. KU and KSU, what is it worth to me to be in a conference where they can compete on an equal footing with everyone else? When you share finances equally that tends to be the case. B-12...not so much.

Even if the money were equivalent, what is equal access to success on the field worth? That, and not being UTerus' lick spittle? Better to die on your feet than serve on your knees...only these three programs would be much farther from death's door with the BE than where they are now. By joining they would insure stability in their new conference.

Wish MU would abandon idle wishes for an SEC or even a Big-10 bid, and think along these lines. The Kansas schools may be ahead of the curve on them in this respect. Waiting around is all BU and ISU can do., but these three schools have real and viable options right now. Be proactive. BE extend, those invites, and MU, KU and KSU, act now! Everyone concerned is sitting on a hot stove...time in NOT on our side.

Unfortunately, MU, KU and KSU will probably not be able to make an informed decision until next year when the BE television negotiations begin in earnest. Look for the remaining Big 12 members to publicly commit to each other, extend an invite to UH and then implode in 2012. I feel bad for UH because they will think they are getting into an AQ conference, only to see it dissipate before they can even join.

 

[toadallytexan]

Unfortunately, MU, KU and KSU will probably not be able to make an informed decision until next year when the BE television negotiations begin in earnest. Look for the remaining Big 12 members to publicly commit to each other, extend an invite to UH and then implode in 2012. I feel bad for UH because they will think they are getting into an AQ conference, only to see it dissipate before they can even join.

You may be right on the timing issue, but how specific do you demand to be "informed". Here's my point... didn't they all agree to stick last year on a vague "ESPN will pay us more to stay as the 12-2" The general figures were lure enough to allow them to decide, even when they didn't know each teams % of the total.

I think if these three schools gave the BE the nod very, very soon, they'd have just as focused an understanding on whether or not they'd be improving their bottom lines as they had last year. Even if the $$ figures are only equivalent, there are the equality and independence factors to commend their telling UT, "See ya, gotta go east".

 

[Endless Purple]

Why does everyon seem to want KSU in the BE?

 

[Frogenstein]

Because that is the 'cost' of adding Kansas.

 

[joejordan]

OOOh Kaaaansas...such a football school. Forget the midwest, let them court someone else. BE should work to bring Miami and BC back, thus crippling the VaNC conference (ACC without them and Clemsie)

 

[screetch]

You may be right on the timing issue, but how specific do you demand to be "informed". Here's my point... didn't they all agree to stick last year on a vague "ESPN will pay us more to stay as the 12-2" The general figures were lure enough to allow them to decide, even when they didn't know each teams % of the total.

I think if these three schools gave the BE the nod very, very soon, they'd have just as focused an understanding on whether or not they'd be improving their bottom lines as they had last year. Even if the $ figures are only equivalent, there are the equality and independence factors to commend their telling UT, "See ya, gotta go east".

I bet Mizzou knew their percentage when they agreed to stay, and they knew they were getting more. (If they weren't satisfied, Baylor and ISU would have bent over and reduced their share to keep sucking at the teat.) Right now, all they know about the Big East is it was offered about $12mm per school for television rights when it still had a huge basketball inventory. I assume that offer would go up and Mizzou would make more, but why wouldn't they just sit tight and find out for sure next year? Something better might come up in the interim - like an offer from the Big 10. In other words, there would have to be some impending deadline to put pressure on them to move quicker, and I'm not aware of any. Similarly, why would a Big East school leave for the ACC until after the television renewal? We are in a good position, and don't freak out about WVU.

 

[HUT-Frog]

You guys are putting the cart before the horse ... the Big East is sweating this thing right now. It is the second most-vulnerable of the BCS conferences, behind the Big XII.

The Big Ten never was satisfied with just Nebraska. It is looking East -- right at the Big East. If the ACC loses two to the SEC (a possibility, but not one that I consider very likely at this point), the ACC would be looking at the Big East too. UConn, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse and West Virginia would be the targets. Lose those five, all those financial projections are off the table.

 

[HUT-Frog]

You guys are putting the cart before the horse ... the Big East is sweating this thing right now. It is the second most-vulnerable of the BCS conferences, behind the Big XII.

The Big Ten never was satisfied with just Nebraska. It is looking East -- right at the Big East. If the ACC loses two to the SEC (a possibility, but not one that I consider very likely at this point), the ACC would be looking at the Big East too. UConn, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse and West Virginia would be the targets. Lose those five, all those financial projections are off the table.

 

[Gunner]

Stand back and listen to this logic.

The weak leagues are the ACC, Big 12, and the Big East. Money, unfortunatly, is what is driving all this. Money is TV markets, right. Who has the biggest TV markets.

The Big East has the markets. The ACC has the least. The Big 12 is imploding because of the arrogance of UT.

Missouri is stupidly considering the SEC, just as stupid as the Ags.
So, let that be. And this is what worries me. What if the Big 10 moves to get Syracuse. That really weakens the BE contract negotiations with NBC and hence, it is harder to get others like Kansas to go BE. The evil Delaney is sitting back looking at the SEC expanding, wondering if they are getting one up on the Big 10. Syracuse gives them more tradition, like Nebraska, and a huge TV market they would like.

If you are the BE, you better have your thinking cap on. Boston College is unhappy in the ACC, and you better offer them the moon, like right now. Head off any raid. Then if you lost Syracuse, it wouldn't be a killer. The BE probably should offer Central Florida right now. You don't have to offer the moon, 'cause they would do a double flip to get into a BCS auto. They have a middle TV market and a 55,000 student body. Pretty good and improving program too.

Maybe it would be smart to increase the deal with Syracuse, to encourage them to stay. Not sure about that tho. Could see where that could help TCU however. We need that NY market.

Getting back to the BE markets, that should keep the BE in the ball game with all the shuffling. But events are shaping new challenges and sittin' around watchin' could be dangerous. Maybe throwing alot of offers out there, just to see what sticks, would be a good strategy???? Go after Missou, Kansas, Central Florida, Tech, and see what they say.

 

[oldscribe]

Stand back and listen to this logic.

The weak leagues are the ACC, Big 12, and the Big East. Money, unfortunatly, is what is driving all this. Money is TV markets, right. Who has the biggest TV markets.

The Big East has the markets. The ACC has the least. The Big 12 is imploding because of the arrogance of UT.

Missouri is stupidly considering the SEC, just as stupid as the Ags.
So, let that be. And this is what worries me. What if the Big 10 moves to get Syracuse. That really weakens the BE contract negotiations with NBC and hence, it is harder to get others like Kansas to go BE. The evil Delaney is sitting back looking at the SEC expanding, wondering if they are getting one up on the Big 10. Syracuse gives them more tradition, like Nebraska, and a huge TV market they would like.

If you are the BE, you better have your thinking cap on. Boston College is unhappy in the ACC, and you better offer them the moon, like right now. Head off any raid. Then if you lost Syracuse, it wouldn't be a killer. The BE probably should offer Central Florida right now. You don't have to offer the moon, 'cause they would do a double flip to get into a BCS auto. They have a middle TV market and a 55,000 student body. Pretty good and improving program too.

Maybe it would be smart to increase the deal with Syracuse, to encourage them to stay. Not sure about that tho. Could see where that could help TCU however. We need that NY market.

Getting back to the BE markets, that should keep the BE in the ball game with all the shuffling. But events are shaping new challenges and sittin' around watchin' could be dangerous. Maybe throwing alot of offers out there, just to see what sticks, would be a good strategy???? Go after Missou, Kansas, Central Florida, Tech, and see what they say.

Why on earth would the Big 10 want Syracuse? Pitt, maybe, but Syracuse? Syracuse is not a huge market. Nice school, but not one everybody is after. Meanwhile, I am very concerned about TCU. Maybe when things shake out, TCU, couple other BE schools, couple ACC schools and remnants of Big 12 can form a kind of super-USA conference. I'm just afraid, in this era, you pay a penalty for being a smaller school with fewer alumni and no ``ownership" of a TV market (a solid presence, however).

 

[berryfrog95]

Why on earth would the Big 10 want Syracuse? Pitt, maybe, but Syracuse? Syracuse is not a huge market. Nice school, but not one everybody is after. Meanwhile, I am very concerned about TCU. Maybe when things shake out, TCU, couple other BE schools, couple ACC schools and remnants of Big 12 can form a kind of super-USA conference. I'm just afraid, in this era, you pay a penalty for being a smaller school with fewer alumni and no ``ownership" of a TV market (a solid presence, however).

I think we've arrived, don't be afraid....seriously. I'm more excited about what final big super conf we'll be in. TCU has their brand now, DFW market and academics.

 

[ShivasFrog]

I just hope Marinatto, Tagliabue et al are putting in the phone time to the AD's, presidents, and Comcast/NBC and coming up with multiple contingency plans. Now is not the time to "sit back and see what happens".

 

[toadallytexan]

I just hope Marinatto, Tagliabue et al are putting in the phone time to the AD's, presidents, and Comcast/NBC and coming up with multiple contingency plans. Now is not the time to "sit back and see what happens".

Agree! As I said, BE is sitting on the old cast iron stove and ATM just lit the kindling. Time is not on our side. The ACC starts offering and Delaney starts offering, and the BE would be a remnant.

However, I firmly disagree about offering ANY of our BE's teams more than any other (as another poster suggested)...that's just the UT-style inequity time bomb all over again.