Update on CFP Expansion Talks!

[TCUdirtbag]

How many fans can realistically afford to go to the Conference Championship Game, the Semi Final, and the “National Championship”?

How many can afford an expanded playoff?

Well, round one is on a “host” campus. Presumably it will be dominated by local, home team fans. Quarters are in the current semi “spot” (*but higher seeded teams get to pick their quarterfinal and will presumably pick the closest to home - TCU could for example pick the Cotton or Sugar, when available, to drive up attendance) so the only “new round” at a neutral site occurs in the semis and affects 4 fan bases. That semi round will be super tough to get people to on 10 day notice.

Let’s use this year and current rankings as a hypothetical:

Scenario One: TCU wins the Big 12 CCG

TCU plays a CCG in Arlington. Say they Win and are the #3 ranked team / conference champ. TCU gets a first-round bye.

The quarterfinals would be: Rose, Cotton, Sugar, Orange. #1 Georgia likely selects Sugar or Orange. #2 Michigan - with no close quarter - likely selects the Rose for historic purposes. #3 TCU can then select Cotton, and #4 USC gets whatever is left (Orange or Sugar).

The semifinals would still be Fiesta and Peach. Assuming the top 4 all won their quarters (though unlikely), Georgia would select the Peach against USC and Michigan would get TCU in the Fiesta. Winners would advance to the National Championship.

In this scenario, you’re just adding one game at AT&T Stadium. Not bad!

Scenario Two: TCU loses the Big 12 CCG

TCU plays a CCG in Arlington. Say they Lose and fall to #6 (for purposes of this example - remember only conference champs get seeds 1-4).

#6 TCU would host a first round game vs. #11 at AGCS the weekend before Christmas. With a W they advance to quarters and a L sends them to a bowl - likely the Alamo. Say they W….

As #6, they face #3 in the quarters. Assume #3 USC won the PAC 12 CCG, and that #1 Georgia selected the Sugar for their quarter, #2 Michigan selected the Rose, then #3 USC probably selected the Orange to avoid facing TCU in Arlington. NOW you are in a scenario where you have to travel to Miami, and if you win to Phoenix 10ish days later, then if you win to LA in another 10 days.

Indeed expensive - but just 1 AGCS game and 1 trip to Miami different from this year.

No doubt this format will be harder on TCU fans than others since we have a much smaller pool of alums.

 

[Wexahu]

FWIW, here’s what 2024 will look like:

Week 0: Saturday August 24

Week 1: Saturday August 31 (Labor Day weekend)

Week *14: Saturday November 30 (Thanksgiving Saturday)
*note: 2024 is a rare 14-week / 2 bye week season!

Conference Championships: Saturday December 7

Final CFP Rankings, Playoff Bracket Announcement, and Bowl Selections: Sunday December 8

CFP First Round (#12 @ #5, #11 & #6, #10 @ #7, and #9 @ #8 [#1-4, top ranked conference champs, get a bye]): weekend of Saturday December 21

CFP Quarterfinal Bowls: TBD but likely New Year’s Day (Wednesday the 1st). Teams ranked 1-4 as designated home teams vs respective winners of the first round from their bracket. Note: round one losers will still go to bowl games). For 2024 season, quarters are Fiesta, Peach, Rose, and Sugar.

CFP Semifinal Bowls: the 2 semifinal rotation will continue as scheduled. However those semis will be later. Likely January 9-13 depending on how they choose to work around NFL Playoff (wild card round) schedules. For the 2024 season, the semis are Cotton and Orange.

National Championship: at neutral location selected by bid process. For the 2024 season, the national championship is Monday January 20 in Atlanta.

So 16 games for the two teams in the NCG. Possibly 17, but unlikely. Wow. I guess they really don't care about player safety. LOL.

If I'm a guaranteed 1st rounder and I play for a team outside the Top 4, I'm not sure but I think I might say thanks, but no thanks. Probably depends on what position I play.

 

[DeuceBoogieNights]

A lot of comments about players, NFL draft, cost of travel which are all legitimate gripes but I'm just glad my favorite sport will have a playoff. Every team should have a chance and now they do, even if it is a long shot.

 

[Wexahu]

A lot of comments about players, NFL draft, cost of travel which are all legitimate gripes but I'm just glad my favorite sport will have a playoff. Every team should have a chance and now they do, even if it is a long shot.

We have a chance this year, and presumably if we have a chance, pretty much everyone does.

Just had to throw that out there.

 

[Dogfrog]

We are lucky this year the ccg is 20 miles away. If we keep winning our fans potentially have two sets of airfare and hotel bookings to manage with very short notice. When you look at hotel rates around LA, the NCG weekend rates are quite inflated. Hope we have to face that problem.

 

[Jax]

If not already said this will probably prompt conferences to eliminate conference championship games and decide champions based on best record/and or highest CFP ranking.

 

[TCUdirtbag]

If not already said this will probably prompt conferences to eliminate conference championship games and decide champions based on best record/and or highest CFP ranking.

Disagree

 

[Wexahu]

If not already said this will probably prompt conferences to eliminate conference championship games and decide champions based on best record/and or highest CFP ranking.

They aren't going to want to give up the money. It's more likely they'll expand to 16 teams and add two more games than it is they'll get rid of CCGs.

 

[Jax]

Roll Toad jokingly said, "They're only having preemptive discussions on how to keep TCU out." But seriously, those discussions surrounded making sure Bama and Ohio State don't get left out in the future.

The SEC and the B1G will get rid of that game in a heartbeat in knowing there is sufficient representation in the playoffs. The PAC-12 (if still in existence then) and the Big XII may not initially give up the game to assure the conference is represented, but eventually they will eliminate the game for the same reasons the Big XII brought it back.

 

[TCUdirtbag]

They should just make it like the NFL, all games on the home field of the highest seed until the National Championship game. Not sure that would work logistically, theoretically every school in the country would have to make sure their stadium is available and ready to host a game in those weeks, but I suppose it could be done.

But it's pretty idiotic to expect fan bases to travel to neutral site games three times in a row. TBH I think its going to be a major issue in terms of selling tickets and filling stands as the years go by, but I doubt they are concerned. More games = more TV money.

It’s worth remembering that the early expansion for the 2024 and 2025 seasons is a contract modification. All these bowls were contracted in through 2025 and so keeping the playoff aligned — to some degree — with the bowls was a condition precedent to early expansion.

The CFP contract is set to expire after the 25 season so we could see them go back to the drawing board on some of the format and scheduling details - TBD.

(But note: the 2026– contract will likely be done before the 2024 season playoff begins, so not sure we will have any “lessons learned” before the long term deal is inked)

 

[Jet Set Frog]

It’s worth remembering that the early expansion for the 2024 and 2025 seasons is a contract modification. All these bowls were contracted in through 2025 and so keeping the playoff aligned — to some degree — with the bowls was a condition precedent to early expansion.

The CFP contract is set to expire after the 25 season so we could see them go back to the drawing board on some of the format and scheduling details - TBD.

And also represents the only chance OU and UT will have at ever sniffing a shot at a playoff berth again after moving to the SEC.

 

[froglash88]

At first, I wanted 16. But because the top four conference champions get a bye I now like 12. If the committee picked the top 4, it would have been 3 SEC and Ohio State almost every year.

 

[froglash88]

The first round of the playoff in 2024 will take place the week ending Saturday, December 21, at either the home field of the higher-seeded team or at another site designated by the higher-seeded institution. (No. 12 at No. 5, No. 11 at No. 6, No. 10 at No. 7, and No. 9 at No. 8.) The specific game dates, likely late in that week, will be announced later.

What does the last sentence mean?

 

[NYC Horned Frog]

Is it possible that conferences will kill an OOC game? That's a lot of games for students. I think it's unlikely because it will hurt regular season money/attendance for the majority of teams. Besides the yearly favorites who usually get in, of course.

 

[Wexahu]

Is it possible that conferences will kill an OOC game? That's a lot of games for students. I think it's unlikely because it will hurt regular season money/attendance for the majority of teams. Besides the yearly favorites who usually get in, of course.

I hope not. Losing a regular season game would suck.

 

[DeuceBoogieNights]

We have a chance this year, and presumably if we have a chance, pretty much everyone does.

Just had to throw that out there.

Thanks! So glad you did

 

[Casey T]

This is a chance to really see how conferences stack up with each other. End of year games when teams are in full form that mean something. I'm excited for fun football, we'd have the below setup this year with current rankings. Tell me this wouldn't be a hell of a time to watch...

(1) Georgia - bye, plays winner of (8) Penn State vs (9) Clemson
(2) Michigan - bye, plays winner of (7) Tennessee vs (10) Kansas State
(3) TCU - bye, plays winner of (6) Alabama vs (11) Utah
(4) USC - bye, plays winner of (5) ohio state vs (12) Washington

Could you imagine the buckeye tears if they lose to Washington? The bama tears losing to Utah again? Count me in

 

[Horned Toad]

I like it!

 

[Dogfrog]

I think you answered your own question

Just realized what a brain dead day I’m having.

 

[froglash88]

This is a chance to really see how conferences stack up with each other. End of year games when teams are in full form that mean something. I'm excited for fun football, we'd have the below setup this year with current rankings. Tell me this wouldn't be a hell of a time to watch...

(1) Georgia - bye, plays winner of (8) Penn State vs (9) Clemson
(2) Michigan - bye, plays winner of (7) Tennessee vs (10) Kansas State
(3) TCU - bye, plays winner of (6) Alabama vs (11) Utah
(4) USC - bye, plays winner of (5) ohio state vs (12) Washington

Could you imagine the buckeye tears if they lose to Washington? The bama tears losing to Utah again? Count me in

AJ McCarron is another wannabe talking head. He said the following about the 12 team playoff (if it was this year). When they said one of the matchups could have been Tennessee vs. Kansas State. AJ said that tho only difference about Tennessee playing without Hooker is whether they beat K State by 100 or 50.



Approximately 39 min mark