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Horned Frog Athletics
Scott & Wes Frog Fan Forum
Need to develop an analytics department
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<blockquote data-quote="Gehörnter Frosch" data-source="post: 2794279" data-attributes="member: 79"><p>I've said the same thing for years.</p><p></p><p>The EV of that long filed goal attempt (that we made) vs. the EV of going for it on 4th and eventually scoring a TD has to weigh toward the latter.</p><p></p><p>Without doing the analysis, I bet the EV of kicking that FG was probably about 1 point, and the EV of going for it was probably 2.5 points. That's a huge difference, and we basically have our opponent 1.5 points my kicking.</p><p></p><p>Our coach doesn't realize that these missed ponts add up over time. He's like a gambler who plays on "gut feelings" and "soul reads" rather than Game Theory Optimal strategies.</p><p></p><p>The best coaches and leaders use a combination of both...but most use analytics to inform their decisions...and weigh risk vs. reward.</p><p></p><p>Not trying to score at the end of regulation, with time outs remaining, is another example of this incompetence. The EV of trying to score was probably 1.5 points, and the -EV of failing and getting scored on was to lose was probably .25 points. There was literally no logical reason to not try and win the game right there.</p><p></p><p>Nothing but emotion and superstitions run our program.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Gehörnter Frosch, post: 2794279, member: 79"] I've said the same thing for years. The EV of that long filed goal attempt (that we made) vs. the EV of going for it on 4th and eventually scoring a TD has to weigh toward the latter. Without doing the analysis, I bet the EV of kicking that FG was probably about 1 point, and the EV of going for it was probably 2.5 points. That's a huge difference, and we basically have our opponent 1.5 points my kicking. Our coach doesn't realize that these missed ponts add up over time. He's like a gambler who plays on "gut feelings" and "soul reads" rather than Game Theory Optimal strategies. The best coaches and leaders use a combination of both...but most use analytics to inform their decisions...and weigh risk vs. reward. Not trying to score at the end of regulation, with time outs remaining, is another example of this incompetence. The EV of trying to score was probably 1.5 points, and the -EV of failing and getting scored on was to lose was probably .25 points. There was literally no logical reason to not try and win the game right there. Nothing but emotion and superstitions run our program. [/QUOTE]
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Which team did TCU defeat in the College Football Playoffs?
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Scott & Wes Frog Fan Forum
Need to develop an analytics department
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