MBB Free throw shooting

[JogginFrog]

Noticed chatter in the Baylor game thread about the importance of free-throw shooting in the postseason, and TCU's inconsistency at the line.

We've grown accustomed to complaining about the Frogs' terrible FT shooting. TCU has been bad in the Dixon era, with only one JD-coached team scratching out 70% for a season--Brodziansky's senior year in '17-'18. The low-water mark was '19-'20 at 63.7%. That's awful.

But the Frogs have improved every season since then:
19-20 - .637
20-21 - .672
21-22 - .674
22-23 - .699
23-24 - .723 (to date)

The current mark puts the Frogs at 161st nationally and 8th in the Big 12, where the mean is .718.

Time to face facts--TCU has upgraded to average at the line.

Maybe more important is that only 2 guys who see regular playing time are below 70% for the year: Udeh at 55% and Peavy at 60%. When you can put four or five guys who average 70%+ on the floor late in games, you're getting somewhere.

 

[This Ain't Chopped Liver]

Very nice to see numbers in context - well done, Joggin

 

[WhatTheFrog]

Seems to have fallen off once conference play began. I recall being pleasantly surprised at the performance on the charity stripe during non-con. Maybe added pressure due to conference games and increase in competition?

 

[satis1103]

Seems to have fallen off once conference play began. I recall being pleasantly surprised at the performance on the charity stripe during non-con. Maybe added pressure due to conference games and increase in competition?

I'd also throw in fatigue there, I don't recall any non-con in which they've had to bust ass as hard as even the "worst" B12 team they've played.

 

[An-Cap Frog]

Seems to have fallen off once conference play began. I recall being pleasantly surprised at the performance on the charity stripe during non-con. Maybe added pressure due to conference games and increase in competition?

It typically all comes down to who is being fouled. I think we all know Udeh is not great and he's third in attempts. Peavy was trending up last year, but has fallen off a bit in percentage.

 

[JogginFrog]

I also thought it would be interesting to look at Frogs in the pros and see how their FT shooting compares to what they did in college. (The average in the NBA is about 77%, the average in college about 71%.)

Bain was good at TCU (.804) and shot close to that in his rookie season in Memphis, but he made a big leap in his second season and how sits at .878 for his pro career. He's a few makes shy of 500; if he gets to 1,200 at his current pace, he'll make the career top-50 list.

Williams was bad at TCU (.625) but is even worse in the NBA (.509). He's taken 212 attempts; if he gets to 300 at his current pace, he'll make the career bottom-50 list.

I think that illustrates (a) that meaningful improvement in FT pct is possible, and (b) the NBA is a specialist's league, and if you're an elite defender, no one really cares if you hit FTs.

 

[JogginFrog]

By the way, a weird story in the NY Times recently focused on the trend in the South Korean pro league to bank FTs, which has enabled several players to elevate their pct over 80%.

 

[helcap]

Seems to have fallen off once conference play began. I recall being pleasantly surprised at the performance on the charity stripe during non-con. Maybe added pressure due to conference games and increase in competition?

Conference only games we are at 68.0%, which is next to last in Big 12. Ironically that is better than our opponents, who are collectively shooting 67.6% against us. So maybe it is catching.

 

[Spike]

I'd also throw in fatigue there, I don't recall any non-con in which they've had to bust ass as hard as even the "worst" B12 team they've played.

Would that be like a virus on the blacktop?

 

[satis1103]

Would that be like a virus on the blacktop?

Certainly something similar, where the Nucleus of the team feels that type of fatigue symptom.

 

[PurplFrawg]

By the way, a weird story in the NY Times recently focused on the trend in the South Korean pro league to bank FTs, which has enabled several players to elevate their pct over 80%.

 

[KillerFrog InD KitchenSink]

By the way, a weird story in the NY Times recently focused on the trend in the South Korean pro league to bank FTs, which has enabled several players to elevate their pct over 80%.

Interesting. Not addressed but also wonder if the bank shot results in an increased chance of an offensive rebound if missed, since perhaps longer and more random bounces?

 

[Frog45]

It's between the ears for most basketball players when they step to the line.

 

[TopFrog]

It's between the ears for most basketball players when they step to the line.

Like anything else.

 

[JogginFrog]

Chinanu Onuaku from 2016--his experiment prompted a deep-dive article about why more players don't shoot granny-style. I expected to find a bunch of stuff online about how analytics will eventually lead to a push for underhanded style. But there's so little actual underhand data from competitive athletes that it doesn't seem at all settled.

The above article pointed to a 1952 dissertation based on a split-sample study of boys (equivalent skill and experience) that apparently showed underhanded to be both empirically better and easier to improve over time...but that's not what the study showed. Subjects improved more shooting underhanded, but they did way worse to begin with--so after 40 days, the percentage of shots made using each style was virtually identical.

I do think analytics will win out on this eventually--just not sure what form that will take.

 

[ShreveFrog]

I would think a big man with little touch (think Eddie Lampkin) could make more FT’s by banking it off the square. Just send the ball straight and don’t worry about having to drop it through the hoop.
Otherwise, I don’t see the benefit of changing your shooting style to what you’ve always done and practice all the time. I guess Rick Barry would disagree.