FWST: Four things to know about TCU football’s next opponent, the UCF Knights

[TopFrog]

Four things to know about TCU football’s next opponent, the UCF Knights​

Steven Johnson

The Horned Frogs will begin Big 12 play with an intriguing matchup against UCF in a primetime Saturday night matchup at Amon G. Carter Stadium.

Both teams were picked to finish in the middle of the conference pecking order in the preseason media polls, but the winner of Saturday’s battle could emerge as a darkhorse to reach the Big 12 title game.

Both teams have looked impressive to start the season against weaker competition, but Saturday will be a true measuring stick for both teams as they try to start league play on the right foot. It’s a game that features plenty of storylines and some of the most talented players in the conference.

Read more at https://www.star-telegram.com/sports/college/big-12/texas-christian-university/article292183095.html

Also at https://www.aol.com/news/four-things-know-tcu-football-175119063.html

 

[Limey Frog]

I'm worried that this is the kind of matchup where the Briles offensive scheme can completely kill us. UCF has the ground game to put in long, time-consuming drives that will wear on our defense. If we punt the ball back to them after 90 seconds of real time and 8 seconds of game clock, we're dead. We need to sustain drives, for which the recipe usually relies on your short yardage running game in third down situations. How are we doing converting third downs on offense and running the ball between the tackles? *checks game notes* Uh oh...

We're going to live and die by the pass this year. Hope that's enough here.

 

[82 Frog Fever]

I'm worried that this is the kind of matchup where the Briles offensive scheme can completely kill us. UCF has the ground game to put in long, time-consuming drives that will wear on our defense. If we punt the ball back to them after 90 seconds of real time and 8 seconds of game clock, we're dead. We need to sustain drives, for which the recipe usually relies on your short yardage running game in third down situations. How are we doing converting third downs on offense and running the ball between the tackles? *checks game note* Uh oh...

We're going to live and die by the pass this year. Hope that's enough here.

Couldn’t agree more.
We must make a major commitment to run the ball, and now that our D is facing a real offense with an OL of 80% seniors averaging 312 lbs (LIU was 270 lbs), can we slow/stop their run game?

 

[An-Cap Frog]

I'm worried that this is the kind of matchup where the Briles offensive scheme can completely kill us. UCF has the ground game to put in long, time-consuming drives that will wear on our defense. If we punt the ball back to them after 90 seconds of real time and 8 seconds of game clock, we're dead. We need to sustain drives, for which the recipe usually relies on your short yardage running game in third down situations. How are we doing converting third downs on offense and running the ball between the tackles? *checks game note* Uh oh...

We're going to live and die by the pass this year. Hope that's enough here.

UCF's offensive pace is similar to TCU's.

 

[Limey Frog]

UCF's offensive pace is similar to TCU's.

Yes, but even if you go fast making first downs will extend a drive and eat clock, whereas failing to convert on third down will not. Will their ground game make them better able to keep drives going than ours will for us?

 

[vicarfrog]

It’ll be a competitive game that goes down to which defense came up with more clutch stops and which offense was able to capitalize on opportunities. I hate to sound like “captain obvious,” but that really will be the determining factor.

I just have no gut feeling on this game, one way or the other. I could see a down to the wire win or loss for us. I will say that I would be shocked if we just laid down and got stomped on. I do think this team has a better mindset than last year.

 

[CryptoMiner]

Avg no of plays per game
UCF 75
TCU 71.5
Avg yds per play
UCF 8.0
TCU 6.2
Ag no 1st downs
UCF 28
TCU 23
Opponents
UCF: New Hampshire, Sam Houston
TCU: Stanford, Long Island

Note: Stanford beat Cal Poly last week 41-7

 

[82 Frog Fever]

This is going to be a great game!
- At last year’s end Briles made the decision to go with Hoover over Jefferson.
Can Hoover prove him correct, or not?
- TCU has a new D that is built on pressuring the QB & stopping the run.
UCF averages 419 ypg rushing. Can we at least cut that in half & still pressure Jefferson?
- TCU averages 115 ypg rushing.
Can TCU find a young back willing to put his foot in the ground to cut back & up the field, instead of continually trying to make the edge? We need at least a 50% improvement.
- Hoover will be under greater pressure than he’s faced all season.
With run game difficulties mounting, can Hoover continue to avoid the gunslinger role and protect the ball? I was hoping he wouldn’t have to throw 40 times a game, but now it looks probable.
Hoover has surprised me. I knew he had good arm range, but I never thought he had the kind of accuracy he‘s showing. I hope he can continue to handle the pressure, as most of our offense rides on his shoulders.

 

[Virgil Cain]

The whole game is going to be predicated on putting Jefferson in obvious passing situations. Having seen him multiple times throughout his career, he doesn’t have the arm talent to beat us.

 

[froginmn]

This is going to be a great game!
- At last year’s end Briles made the decision to go with Hoover over Jefferson.
Can Hoover prove him correct, or not?

Well, one of them is 48/67 for 620 yards, with 4 TDs, no picks, and 1 sack.

The other is 19/29 for 333, with 2 TDs, 1 pick, and 3 sacks, plus 89 rushing yards.

Seems like the early stats are in Briles' favor.

 

[82 Frog Fever]

It’ll be a competitive game that goes down to which defense came up with more clutch stops and which offense was able to capitalize on opportunities. I hate to sound like “captain obvious,” but that really will be the determining factor.

I just have no gut feeling on this game, one way or the other. I could see a down to the wire win or loss for us. I will say that I would be shocked if we just laid down and got stomped on. I do think this team has a better mindset than last year.

This sounds a little crazy, but I think this game is an early pivot point on the season.
If TCU can beat UCF, our next 3 games (SMU, Kan., Hou.) are very winnable.

Kansas- Jalon Daniels doesnt look like a FBS QB, at least not right now. Against Illinois he was 18-32 for a 4.4 yd avg. He threw 3 Ints, and the longest pass he threw was 9 yards. Cant wait to see our defensive pressure package for this guy.

 

[Limey Frog]

This sounds a little crazy, but I think this game is an early pivot point on the season.
If TCU can beat UCF, our next 3 games (SMU, Kan., Hou.) are very winnable.

Kansas- Jalon Daniels doesnt look like a FBS QB, at least not right now. Against Illinois he was 18-32 for a 4.4 yd avg. He threw 3 Ints, and the longest pass he threw was 9 yards. Cant wait to see our defensive pressure package for this guy.

It absolutely is. It's pretty difficult to imagine us picking up a home loss to UCF but coming out as one of the two participants in the CCG come December. We could still win eight games and have a decent year if we lose, but we're not going to be playing for a conference championship and have a great one.

 

[FrogAbroad]

But...what does Vegas say?

 

[vicarfrog]

This sounds a little crazy, but I think this game is an early pivot point on the season.
If TCU can beat UCF, our next 3 games (SMU, Kan., Hou.) are very winnable.

Kansas- Jalon Daniels doesnt look like a FBS QB, at least not right now. Against Illinois he was 18-32 for a 4.4 yd avg. He threw 3 Ints, and the longest pass he threw was 9 yards. Cant wait to see our defensive pressure package for this guy.

I think you’re on to something. Dykes signaled that a bit in his press conference.

 

[SW toad]

This sounds a little crazy, but I think this game is an early pivot point on the season.
If TCU can beat UCF, our next 3 games (SMU, Kan., Hou.) are very winnable.

Kansas- Jalon Daniels doesnt look like a FBS QB, at least not right now. Against Illinois he was 18-32 for a 4.4 yd avg. He threw 3 Ints, and the longest pass he threw was 9 yards. Cant wait to see our defensive pressure package for this guy.

Agree with you in regard to this being a fork in the road game.? is, can we move forward after OU tampered with our program and stole Damonic Williams. Sonny busted is rear recruiting/landing Williams and now we have Tymon Mitchell Markis Deal and the rest holding down the fort.

If you check out UCF RBs RJ Harvey and Peny Boone's profile and record, you'll see they both are NFL Draft picks. If we hold them to under 175 yds rushing, we win the game.

 

[CryptoMiner]

 

[Frognosticator]

Well, one of them is 48/67 for 620 yards, with 4 TDs, no picks, and 1 sack.

The other is 19/29 for 333, with 2 TDs, 1 pick, and 3 sacks, plus 89 rushing yards.

Seems like the early stats are in Briles' favor.

I think we should put in Savion Williams at QB. He has a 100% completion rate (Hoover is only 71.6%) and a passer rating of 226 (Hoover is only 169).

The facts make it abundantly clear. Savion should start at QB.

 

[Frog-in-law1995]

But...what does Vegas say?

We opened as a 2pt favorite but it’s swung 4 points towards UCF.

 

[SW toad]

I think we should put in Savion Williams at QB. He has a 100% completion rate (Hoover is only 71.6%) and a passer rating of 226 (Hoover is only 169).

The facts make it abundantly clear. Savion should start at QB.

Hah. There was a website back in 2007 to 2015 timeframe that was essentially an advanced statistical analytics website before Moneyball and the rest. If i recall, it was www.Whatifsports.net. The site performed a "best of 3 games" simulation and it recognized probabilities for injury to QB and other positions.

The site had head-to-head simulations for Auburn vs. TCU after Auburn won the NC. TCU came out on top 2 out of 3 times.

It is not a bad idea to think about what would happen if Hoover missed 1-2 game with injury along with Ken Seals.

Savion Williams and a couple of others should at least have an installed package where they go through a dozen and a half reps. I'm speculating Hejny can' take reps for the next couple of weeks so the installed packages would not expand the practice. Chase Curtis would be my other choice.

 

[Limey Frog]

Huge win. Bring on the Ponies.