A few corrections to some narratives floating around out there...
- The Big 12 argued its new 12-member alignment is worth, on the open market, $500mm total starting in 2025 for 5 or 6 years, plus a "make right" if ESPN wants to move TX/OU out early (would look like higher fees over the next two years). The response to that wasn't as negative as anticipated. $400mm as the AAV for the 5-6 year extension is the current "median," and I think it's a number both sides can say yes to.
- For reference, the current Big 12 contract has a $250mm AAV and is scheduled to peak around $275mm total in 2024-2025. That's for the existing ten members, including OU and Texas. The extension would, in effect, build off that $275mm number and accelerate into the latter part of this decade.
- Why would ESPN and FOX be interested? From what I see, the primary reason is that they see this as the best CFB rights available anytime soon, and they know they'll have to pay more if they wait two years. Better to wrap it up now, and the two sides are aligned: Big 12 wants stability and certainty too and wants to get their $$ now vs. after the CFP and NBA take bigger chunks of the shrinking pie. Both FOX and ESPN need the content, especially FOX, and ESPN needs to protect ESPN+ from churn.
- The biggest items remaining are A) Fees, B) Term, and C) TX/OU exit. ESPN wants them into the SEC ASAP, FOX wants to be compensated... I have good news: There is a path to get this done. FOX needs more Tier 1 content, and ESPN has plenty with the SEC and ACC. All ESPN really wants here is some football for its networks and ESPN+, all the basketball, and Tier 3 for ESPN+, and they are willing to give Tier 1 to FOX or at least change the selection criteria to preference FOX in the selection draft. Is that enough to get it done? Maybe, maybe not.
- The Big 12 will stand firm on the exit fee but will negotiate on the penalty to allow TX/OU to leave if it helps get a good rights deal done.
- A recent straw poll of Big 12 Presidents showed that this deal if brought to the board would get approved. Any interest in waiting so that we can call Amazon or WBD is "low" I'm told.
- If you are curious, this is what a 2027-2028 revenue distribution could look like for TCU:
Media Rights/Fees/Licensing: $35 million
CFP Share: $32 million
NCAA Revenue: $5 million
Other: $1 million
Total Big 12 Annual Distribution per member: $73 million
SEC/Big Ten will probably be $100-125 million by that point.
ACC: LOL