• The KillerFrogs

FLM: TCU, Texas Tech tied in standings entering Big 12 showdown

TopFrog

TopFrog

Lifelong Frog

TCU, Texas Tech tied in standings entering Big 12 showdown​

Story by Field Level Media

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Two teams coming off big second halves with different outcomes collide in Lubbock, Texas, on Tuesday with a goal of staying in the upper echelon of the Big 12 Conference standings.

TCU heads to Texas Tech for a second meeting this season as both teams remain in the mix in the standings bottleneck, two games out of first place entering Monday with three weeks left in the regular season. The Horned Frogs beat the visiting Red Raiders 85-78 on Jan. 30 in Fort Worth.

The Horned Frogs (18-7, 7-5) bring a jolt of momentum with them after a buzz-beater thriller on the road against Kansas State on Saturday. Jameer Nelson Jr. buried a stepback 3-pointer with 1.1 seconds to go to nail down a 75-72 win.

Read more at https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ot...tandings-entering-big-12-showdown/ar-BB1iuCPw
 
TopFrog

TopFrog

Lifelong Frog
We have the most road conference wins with 5. But 2-2 at home. Ifs and buts we should be at the top of the conference and ranked top 15.
 
Limey Frog

Limey Frog

Full Member
TopFrog said:
We have the most road conference wins with 5. But 2-2 at home. Ifs and buts we should be at the top of the conference and ranked top 15.
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We've dropped a couple, no doubt, but we've also come away with some real squeakers. We may have dropped winnable fixtures at Cincinnati and in the home game vs. Iowa State, and had one stolen from us in Lawrence, but Houston, at Baylor, and recently at K-State could easily have gone the other way, as could the non-conference win at Georgetown. I think these things tend to even out. If anything, we've done better in close games than worse.

Tuesday night is looking more winnable than it was a week or so ago. It's a tough gym, but these teams are even in the standings and we beat them somewhat comfortably in Fort Worth. I think after Saturday we can afford to lose this one, but if we win this team could make some real noise down the stretch.
 
TopFrog

TopFrog

Lifelong Frog
Limey Frog said:
We've dropped a couple, no doubt, but we've also come away with some real squeakers. We may have dropped winnable fixtures at Cincinnati and in the home game vs. Iowa State, and had one stolen from us in Lawrence, but Houston, at Baylor, and recently at K-State could easily have gone the other way, as could the non-conference win at Georgetown. I think these things tend to even out. If anything, we've done better in close games than worse.

Tuesday night is looking more winnable than it was a week or so ago. It's a tough gym, but these teams are even in the standings and we beat them somewhat comfortably in Fort Worth. I think after Saturday we can afford to lose this one, but if we win this team could make some real noise down the stretch.
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I dont think about what ifs with the wins, just the close losses.
 
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JogginFrog

JogginFrog

Active Member
Frogs are in that awkward space where, even playing well down the stretch, they'll probably wind up in that 7-10 seed range, with a solid first-round opponent and a top-8 team in round 2. You can't attempt to slot yourself into an 11 or 12 seed without putting yourself in danger of missing the dance entirely, although the committee really likes good road wins, so the Frogs don't have to play desperate.

Still, a win in Lubbock would give the Frogs a great chance to finish above .500 in conference, which would be a first in the Dixon era and a meaningful marker of progress.

HCJD has shown a knack for getting his teams to play well at season's end, which seems incredibly difficult given the conference grind. I don't know how a coach can manage the mix of (a) keeping things loose/fun while (b) still getting guys to do the little stuff that improves efficiency (positioning, effort, etc.), and (c) having some pacing in terms of practice time, distribution of minutes, etc., with buy-in from the bench guys to play their roles with energy. Alchemy.
 
JogginFrog

JogginFrog

Active Member
ReedFrawg said:
Would someone explain why byu is a projected 5 seed, Tech is a 6, OU is a 7 and we are 8/9. What’s the love for byu???
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I've been wondering that, too. They were a top-10 team in KenPom for a long time (now 16th; Frogs are 32nd). They had a non-con home win against top-20 SDSU; that may compare to TCU's extra conference win.

I think they get a bump from 3 "neutral-court" wins in SLC and Vegas where they would have had big crowd support (against 2 TCU neutral-court losses). But even with those, the Cougars are 5-5 neutral/away, vs. TCU's 7-5. I think when the committee looks at the resumes outside of the algorithms, they won't see more than a one-seed difference if the teams have similar stretch runs.
 
This Ain't Chopped Liver

This Ain't Chopped Liver

Active Member
New AP Poll has Tech 23, BYU 25, Frogs 30 and Oklahoma drops out to 40+. Houston, Iowa State, Kansas and Baylor are 2, 6, 9, 11.

New Coaches Poll has BYU 21, Tech 23, Frogs 25 and Sooners drop to 35. Houston, Iowa State, Kansas and Baylor are 2, 6, 10, 11.
 
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Limey Frog

Limey Frog

Full Member
BYU has one good non-conference win vs. SDSU, a decent win vs. NC State, and a notable loss to Utah. They're 6-6 in conference. What does the AP poll like so much about them? Are voters getting them confused with Houston?
 
T

tetonfrog

Active Member
Two keys to win at the Red Rashers are (1) force turnovers and 2) slow down Isaacs. He is their spark plug. Curious to see how we switch on their pick and rolls with him. Cannot let him go off from 3.

As far our tourney bid, let's just keep winning. Get the momentum, finish strong and we should be at least 6 or 7 seed.
 
R

ReedFrawg

Full Member
Limey Frog said:
BYU has one good non-conference win vs. SDSU, a decent win vs. NC State, and a notable loss to Utah. They're 6-6 in conference. What does the AP poll like so much about them? Are voters getting them confused with Houston?
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And they just lost to OK St. Yes it was on the road but the game was never competitive.
 
This Ain't Chopped Liver

This Ain't Chopped Liver

Active Member
I think the non-conference season is too heavily factored in; for Big 12 teams, the conference season should rule as far as in-conference comparative rankings and seedings. Irritates me a bit. I want a 6 seed or better to avoid that 2nd tourney game against a 1 or 2 seed. I want that 2nd weekend in the Sweet Sixteen.

Maybe the good news is that the influence of the non-conference schedule should diminish some as we move deeper into the conference season.
 
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JogginFrog

JogginFrog

Active Member
Limey Frog said:
BYU has one good non-conference win vs. SDSU, a decent win vs. NC State, and a notable loss to Utah. They're 6-6 in conference. What does the AP poll like so much about them? Are voters getting them confused with Houston?
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The metric that loves BYU is NET, which inexplicably still has the Cougars 10th (and TCU 36th). Besides their sketchy "neutral" court wins, I think that ranking is mostly due to margin of victory and (I suspect) "game control." Quad records are virtually identical. BYU is a bit better than TCU in offensive efficiency and equivalent on D.

Game control rewards teams that get ahead early and then coast, while spanking teams that dig themselves early holes and then rally, like TCU has often done. If NET uses that and MOV, it seems a bit self-defeating. Like they try to remove the effect of garbage-time play but then add a bonus if your bench players run up the score on opponents' bench players.
 
Limey Frog

Limey Frog

Full Member
JogginFrog said:
The metric that loves BYU is NET, which inexplicably still has the Cougars 10th (and TCU 36th). Besides their sketchy "neutral" court wins, I think that ranking is mostly due to margin of victory and (I suspect) "game control." Quad records are virtually identical. BYU is a bit better than TCU in offensive efficiency and equivalent on D.

Game control rewards teams that get ahead early and then coast, while spanking teams that dig themselves early holes and then rally, like TCU has often done. If NET uses that and MOV, it seems a bit self-defeating. Like they try to remove the effect of garbage-time play but then add a bonus if your bench players run up the score on opponents' bench players.
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When we play BYU will it be on a spreadsheet or in real life? I hope it will be real life.
 

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